2007 Wimbledon Picks

The "RogerSlam" talk is over... unless you count the possibility of it becoming a reality beginning anew once again as play begins at the All-England Club.

As usual, though, history is still calling Roger Federer. The four-time defending Wimbledon champion is edging close to the all-time SW19 greats in the record books, and as the foregone conclusion... err, I mean "distinct possibility" that he'll win his fifth title at the end of the upcoming fortnight looms, it seems proper to take a peak at where he stands in the queue.

*MOST WIMBLEDON TITLES -- ALL-TIME*
7...William Renshaw
7...Pete Sampras
5...Bjorn Borg
5...Laurence Doherty
4...Reggie Doherty
4...ROGER FEDERER
4...Rod Laver
4...Tony Wilding

*MOST CONSECUTIVE WIMBLEDON TITLES*
6...William Renshaw, 1881-86
5...Bjorn Borg, 1976-80
5...Laurence Doherty, 1902-06
4...ROGER FEDERER, 2003-06
4...Pete Sampras, 1997-00
4...Tony Wilding, 1910-13
4...Reggie Doherty, 1897-00

Will the beat go on?



**ROUND OF 16**
#1 Federer def. #21 Tursunov
#5 Gonzalez def. #9 Blake
#3 Roddick def. Stepanek
Lopez def. Clement
#10 Baghdatis def. Guccione
#4 Djokovic def. #16 Hewitt
#7 Berdych def. #19 Bjorkman
#2 Nadal def. #18 Nieminen

**QUARTERFINALS**
#1 Federer def. #5 Gonzalez
#3 Roddick def. Lopez
#4 Djokovic def. #10 Baghdatis
#2 Nadal def. #7 Berdych

**SEMIFINALS**
#1 Federer d. #3 Roddick
#4 Djokovic def. #2 Nadal

...this is isn't clay, and Mr. Fantastic gets one over on Rafa.

**FINAL**
#1 Federer d. #4 Djokovic

...this is grass. He's still the King. Enough said.



For a second opinion, from Tennisrulz Head Honcho Pierre Cantin, read his Wimbledon preview blog.


All for now.

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ATP Backspin 2Q Clay Awards

History remains on deck for Roger Federer, but Rafael Nadal is swiftly making his way toward the front of the line of the best clay court players of all time.



**PLAYERS OF THE 2Q CLAY SEASON**
1. Rafael Nadal
...one tired set in Hamburg prevented yet another perfect clay season for Rafa. Guess he'll just have to "settle" for the third straight Roland Garros title. Poor, guy.
=============================
2. Roger Federer
...Paris (meaning the grand slam held there, not the overly sensitive and overpampered jailbird, mind you) slipped through his fingers, but he'll always have the Hamburg victory over Nadal that ended the 81-match clay streak to remind him that winning Roland Garros is still an attainable goal. Of course, those sixteen failures to convert a break point in seventeen chances in the RG final will probably be what he remembers more often.
=============================
3. Novak Djokovic
...pity Mr. Fantastic to be around in the era when Roger and Rafa rule the courts, sort of like everyone had to feel for the female players not named Navratilova or Evert during the 1970's and 80's.
=============================
4. Juan Monaco
...the Argentine won his first two career titles during the Euro clay season.
=============================
5. Bob & Mike Bryan
...they didn't win at Roland Garros, but the only American men who can actually play on clay did win Masters titles in Monte Carlo and Hamburg.
=============================


**RISERS**
1. Novak Djokovic
2. Juan Monaco
3. Nicolas Almagro
4. Paul-Henri Mathieu
5. Mikhail Youzhny
6. Richard Gasquet
7. Tomas Berdych
8. Igor Andreev
9. Gael Monfils
10. Lukas Dlouhy/Pavel Vizner
HM- David Ferrer & Janko Tipsarevic

**FRESH FACES**
1. Philip Kohlschreiber
2. Robin Soderling
3. Vladimir Ignatic
4. Juan Pablo Brzezicki
5. Greg Jones
6. Marin Cilic
7. Simone Bolelli
8. Kellen Damico
9. Matteo Trevisan
10. Gilles Simon
HM-Jan Hajek

**SURPRISES**
1. Filippo Volandri
2. Ivo Karlovic
3. Albert Montanes
4. Jan Hernych
5. Olivier Patience
HM- Ivan Navarro-Pastor

**VETERANS**
1. Lleyton Hewitt
2. Mark Knowles/Daniel Nestor
3. Carlos Moya
4. Juan Carlos Ferrero
5. Guillermo Canas
HM- Jonas Bjorkman

**COMEBACK**
1. Igor Andreev
2. Lleyton Hewitt
3. Carlos Moya
4. Roger Federer (on clay, post-Roche)
5. Pete Sampras (Champions Tour)

**DOWN**
1. Ivan Ljubicic
2. USA men
3. Marat Safin
4. Fernando Gonzalez
5. David Nalbandian
HM- Jonas Bjorkman/Max Mirnyi

TOP PERFORMANCE: Rafael Nadal wins his third straight Roland Garros title, running his career record there to 21-0. The youngest man to ever win three RG titles, he's also the first to three-peat since Bjorn Borg won his third of four straight from 1978-81. At 21, he's half way to Borg's record six titles in Paris, as well.

TOP DUAL PERFORMANCE: Nadal's Roland Garros title was the ninth straight slam won by either him or Roger Federer, within striking distance of the fifteen straight won by either Navratilova or Evert on the women's tour from 1981-85.

**TOP MATCH**
Hamburg Final - Federer d. Nadal
...2-6/6-2/6-0. How much was Federer, and how much was a tired Nadal playing one event too many? No matter the equation, this is still the only reason the Spaniard doesn't have an eighty-nine match clay winning streak going right now. Federer's first win over Nadal on clay is only all the more "Roger-esque" considering the fact it came right after he'd dismissed Tony Roche as his coach after a string of uncharacteristic losses at the beginning of the clay season.

**CLAY BREAKOUT**
...Novak Djokovic reaches his first career slam SF at Roland Garros, combining with fellow Serbs Jelena Jankovic (RG women's SF), Ana Ivanovic (RU), Janko Tipsarevic (who upset Marat Safin in Paris) and Nenad Zimonjic (RG Mixed Doubles RU, Doubles SF) to make the Fantastovic's THE biggest story on the tennis radar that doesn't include anyone named Roger, Rafa, Serena or Maria.

**BIGGEST UPSET**
Rome 3rd Round - Volandri d. Federer
...6-2/6-4. In 2006, Federer's only losses came to Nadal and Andy Murray. In 2007, he's fallen against Nadal, Guillermo Canas and Filippo Volandri. Apparently, though, this one shook the King to his foundation... considering Roche was soon out, and Nadal was soon on the wrong end of a clay court match scoreline against him in Germany.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: Ivo Karlovic won his first career title on the clay in Houston, giving some indication that he might have learned a few shots other than the crushing serve over the past year. But will it help him become more than a novelty act at SW19?

IT WAS AN ACCIDENT, HONEY... HONEST!: While hitting balls on court during a weekend fundraiser, Andre Agassi's racket follow-through landed right in the middle of wife Steffi Graf's face. Some blood and three stitches in her lip later, and Andre's "honey-do-this" list suddenly had gotten longer... and he quickly began checking items off before Monday arrived.

**LUCK OF THE DRAW? Yeah, right.**
...in the 1st Round of Doubles in Rome, the team of Moya/Nadal met the team of Federer/Wawrinka. That the Spaniards beat the Swiss is not of issue -- they did 6-4/7-6, but what is is whether or not a blind draw actually produced this rare match-up. Somehow, I doubt it.

**A GENIUS AT WORK**
...with all nine of the American men in the Roland Garros singles draw getting drop-kicked out on their keysters in the 1st Round, you've got to hand it to Mardy Fish's ingenius way to avoid such an ignominious dishonor. You see, he withdrew from the tournament before it began after he injured his foot trying to kick a field goal at a Rhein Fire football game in Germany. Yes, we've got a Mensa candidate here.

**HELLO, OLD FRIEND... VISIT AGAIN SOON**
...maybe 35-year old Pete Sampras took such a potential greeting seriously. The all-time slam title leader returned to his first competitive, full-match action since he won the '02 U.S. Open when he began play on the Champions Tour. He played well, and even admitted to being "curious" about whether he could still compete on the grass at the All-England Club.

**SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON**
...Sampras has competed in exhibitions with Federer in recent months (the world #1 noted that he was impressed by his level of play, but made sure to mention that it still wasn't enough to beat him... which he added with that sly smile that doubles as an act of intimidation when he wants it to). They'll meet again in three exhibitions in Asia in November. Let's see, by then Federer could have won slams #11 and #12 in London and New York. If #13 came in Melbourne in '08, and skipping over that little event in Paris, the current King could be heading to SW19 with his sights set on matching the former King's mark of 14 slam titles. Hmmm, what would Pete do then... I mean, if he's still "curious" about playing Wimbledon again? Could he resist the temptation? Just something to keep an eye on.

AHA! FEDERER COULD WIN ROLAND GARROS IF THEY PLAYED ON ONLY HALF A CLAY COURT!:

...oh, but Nadal actually won their half-clay, half-grass exhibition match in Mallorca, 7-5/4-6/7-6 (12-10), didn't he? Nevermind.


All for now.

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Unbeaten, Untied and Unassailable

Roger vs. Rafa XII opened with an atmosphere reminiscent of a heavyweight boxing title fight. The Rumble at Roland Garros? The Thrillier on Chatrier?

For good reason, too, because both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal were playing for history in a rivalry that is enhanced seemingly exponentially every time the two meet under such circumstances.



Nadal was playing for his third straight Roland Garros title, looking to remain unbeaten for his career there and to maintain his position as the only true threat to Federer's potential legacy as the best man to ever play the game.

Federer, though, was seeking even greater historical significance: his fourth straight slam championship (a "RogerSlam") to get within shouting distance of Pete Sampras' all-time major title mark, and to take his place at the head of the dinner table at the virtual banquet of tennis greats. It's a spot that Rod Laver is generally considered to hold at the moment, with Sampras sitting just to his right, next to the chair already marked with a name card the reads "Federer." But the Swiss Mister came to Paris staring directly into the eyes of history, and the chance to slip into the big chair with a win at Roland Garros. After having ended Nadal's 81-match winning streak on clay in Hamburg, Federer's chances appeared to have some legs, too.

It was a mirage that wasn't meant to be. Not at Roland Garros. Not in the heat that played directly into Rafa's hands, not to mention legs. The "Hamburg Effect," as it turned out, was minimal on Sunday as Nadal ran his career RG mark to 21-0 with a 6-3/4-6/6-3/6-4 victory.

Of course, we'll never know what might have happened had Federer won the 1st set that he had so many chances to grab (though he did take the 1st in the '06 final, but still lost in four sets anyway). Presented with ten break points on Nadal's serve in the set, Federer converted none as his forehand failed him and the Spaniard bore down on the match's biggest points. Nadal only carved out two break point chances on Federer's serve in the opening stanza, but he converted them both.

Federer won the 2nd set, but an early break by Nadal in the 3rd was too much to overcome. Then in the 4th set, after the world #1 failed to convert an early break chance, the long stretch of road back that faced Federer was finally too far for even him to traverse. In the end, he converted just one of seventeen break point chances, a stat so stunning that Federer is unlikely to ever come close to such inability to seize the moment again in his career.

History will have to wait.

Instead, it's Nadal who grabs his now customary Paris headline, and leaves the European clay court season realistically just one tired set in Hamburg away from holding an 89-match clay winning streak (even if the TRUE stat says he's won just seven in a row). Next year, he'll arrive at Roland Garros looking to become the first four-peat champ since Bjorn Borg from 1978-81, and then could set his sights on the Swedish legend's record six RG titles.

With Nadal only barely 21, even with his physically-demanding game potentially meaning a long career might not be in the cards for him, one has to wonder if Federer just missed his last best shot to complete his career resume. At nearly 26, he's definitely made the turn onto the "back nine" of his career. Even with his 54-2 record in the last eight slams, and as his role as the favorite in 2007's remaining slams could bring him career majors #11 and #12, just two from Sampras' record of 14, Roland Garros and whether Federer can ever conquer it (or, more specifically, conquer Nadal there) now becomes the long-term focus of his career. Federer needs a Roland Garros title to knock the red-headed Aussie out of the big chair, and he knows it. But the window IS starting to close, and even if he wins the next three slams the same question of whether he can win in Paris will hang over him a year from now. It's unavoidable... until he either succeeds, or fails there for the last time.

But, at the moment, maybe an even bigger story than Federer and/or Nadal individually is this rivalry itself. This fitful dance between the world's two best tennis players that is stretching over seasons, across continents and on the biggest stages that the sport has to offer. Tennis is never better than when a TRUE head-to-head rivalry is developed on the court, rather than by shared parents or featuring a streaking comet of success that burns bright for one season but is tremendously dimmed by the next.

Federer/Nadal is the real thing, with the Spaniard nipping at the heels of the Swiss superstar even as the latter is being considered for the title of the Greatest of All Time. Marvel at that, and hope for more... for as long as both are able.



*ROLAND GARROS TITLES - ACTIVE*
3...RAFAEL NADAL, 2005-07
3...Gustavo Kuerten, 1997/00-01
1...Juan Carlos Ferrero, 2003
1...Gaston Gaudio, 2004
1...Carlos Moya, 1998

*CAREER SLAM TITLES - ACTIVE*
[AO-RG-W-US]
10..ROGER FEDERER [3-0-4-3]
3...RAFAEL NADAL [0-3-0-0]
3...Gustavo Kuerten [0-3-0-0]
2...Lleyton Hewitt [0-0-1-1]
2...Marat Safin [1-0-0-1]
1...Juan Carlos Ferrero [0-1-0-0]
1...Gaston Gaudio [0-1-0-0]
1...Thomas Johansson [1-0-0-0]
1...Carlos Moya [0-1-0-0]
1...Andy Roddick [0-0-0-1]

*CONSECUTIVE SLAM FINALS*
8...ROGER FEDERER, 2005-07
7...Jack Crawford, 1932-34

*ALL-TIME SLAM TITLES*
14...Pete Sampras
12...Roy Emerson
11...Bjorn Borg
11...Rod Laver
10...ROGER FEDERER
10...Bill Tilden



*2007 ROLAND GARROS CHAMPIONS*
MEN'S SINGLES: Rafael Nadal (ESP)
WOMEN'S SINGLES: Justine Henin (BEL)
MEN'S DOUBLES: Mark Knowles(BAH) & Daniel Nestor(CAN)
WOMEN"s DOUBLES: Alicia Molik(AUS) & Mara Santangelo(ITA)
MIXED DOUBLES: Nathalie Dechy(FRA) & Andy Ram(ISR)
BOYS SINGLES: Vladimir Ignatic (BLR)
GIRLS SINGLES: Alize Cornet (FRA)
BOYS DOUBLES: Thomas Fabbiano(ITA) & Andrei Karatchenia(BLR)
GIRLS DOUBLES: Ksenia Milevskaya(BLR) & Urszula Radwanska(POL)


All for now.

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Day 7: All You Need is a Little Patience

There was no need for Mr. Fantastic to call on his super friends in his battle against surprising Frenchman Olivier Patience and the partisan Paris crowd on Day 7. He didn't need to display of his superpowers, either. Nope. All he needed was a little patience.



Faced with the prospect of being the victim of the tournament's biggest upset so far, Novak Djokovic did what any potentially great player SHOULD do. He didn't panic. He didn't start to become perturbed by every little thing, hoping a burst of anger would ignite his game. He didn't try to demonstrably alter his approach against the #129th-ranked opponent that there was no chance of toppling without a course correction on this day. Instead, he buckled down and played his game, fully believing that everything would be all right as long as he kept his head.

A player with Djokovic's ability can afford to have such confidence, I suppose. It worked for him, too. The 20-year old Serb outlasted Patience for a 7-6/2-6/3-6/7-6/6-3 victory, as he finally outraced his 27-year old opponent with an 8-5 advantage in winners in the final set, and while committing only half as many unforced errors (11 to 20). Djokovic only converted 2-of-16 break point attempts in the match, but the single one he got in the final stanza was enough to put this potential nightmare behind him, turning it into a learning experience. Patience actually held three break points on Djokovic's serve at 3-3 in the 5th, but Mr. Fantastic held on. In the next game, Patience led 40-15 only to see the Serb roar back to break to go up 5-3, then serve out the match... just like any "next big thing" should.

Djokovic is the youngest remaining player in the men's draw, but most think he's got the best chance of reaching and/or winning this whole thing if neither Federer nor Nadal do so. But, despite winning today, Djokovic wasn't satisfied.

Sometimes, being #3 in so many people's eyes is a good thing, and maybe it is for Djokovic on some level, as well. But it won't be for much longer... if it ever was at all.




All for now.

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