AO Day 3: Our First Big Upset

Hi All. Galileo here.

Alex De Minaur has learned a valuable lesson. Winning in five sets against a tricky opponent in front of a baying crowd is never easy. Especially when you’re inexperienced. Henri Laaksonen is an experienced player who plays above his ranking. There’s even more pressure on the youngster because a meeting with Rafa Nadal is on the line. There is something very special about Ash Barty and Demon. They’re different. They have the mentality to do well even if their talent level is a little below that of some of their compatriots.

On that subject, Barty will be taking on Maria Sakkari with the winner going on to face Maria Sharapova or Caro Wozniacki. Isn’t that fantastic? It’s like generations past, present and future all converging. And you know one day Sakkari and Barty will probably meet in a grand slam final. It might even be here.

*SUICIDE POOL PICKS*
MS 1st Rd: CORIC [11] d. [PR] DARCIS {W}
MS 2nd Rd: CARRENO BUSTA [23] D. IVASHKA
==
WS 1st Rd: MUGURUZA [18[ D. ZHENG {W}
WS 2nd Rd: Giorgi [27] d. [Q] SWIATEK

RLA: FEDERER D. EVANS
In the fiery cauldron of RLA, Federer proved to be too hot to handle. He outlasted Dan Evans 7-6[5], 7-6[3], 6-3 in two and a half hours. Losing serve just once he blasted 56 winners [twice that of his opponent] and won 37 per cent of his return points. His British foe pushed him a little in the first two sets but he was never a threat. The key for the Swiss in this tournament is to not get dragged into long matches. Having been on court a shade over four hours, he will now be feeling pretty good. If he can continue to win 53 per cent of points on the second serve return he will be in for a very good tournament. Next he plays dangerous youngster Taylor Fritz. He upset 30th seed Gael Monfils in four sets, taking two out of the three breakers they played.

RLA: NADAL D. EBDEN
No man has ever won each slam at least twice. Nadal is the closest. With Federer opting to skip the French Open and Djokovic not a threat in Paris at the moment, Nadal stands the best chance. He dismissed Matty Ebden 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 in typical brutal fashion late last night. The Aussie lacked the firepower he needed to live with the Spaniard and it showed. Nadal was hitting his forehand well and it’s clear he is in it to win it. The key is the 57 percent of 2nd serves points won. If he can maintain that he will do very well. He can struggle there sometimes but it’s clear he hasn’t been this tournament. If this is Nadal injured, imagine how bad it would have been if he’d been fully fit. He will face his third Aussie in a row in the next round. Alex De Minaur will be a much trickier opponent, however, and he can expose Rafa’s health woes and backhand. If he can play to his full level.

MCA: TIAFOE D. ANDERSON
The first big upset has come. Kevin Anderson has fallen to American young gun Frances Tiafoe. He went down 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 7-5. Could it spell the end of the South African’s run at the top of the world? It was a very even match decided by one or two little points here and there. Anderson had only six break chances whilst his opponent had 14. The American found to way to neutralise the big man’s serve. Not all the time, but enough to take the edge off it. Anderson will need to think about how he will play himself back into form. He has a lot of time until the next big event, but this is a worrying loss. As for Tiafoe, well, could this be the tournament he officially lands? With Andreas Seppi next and only an out of form Dimitrov lurking, the draw has opened up a bit. Can he take advantage and go on a big run here? If he can keep returning well, stay confident and keep his forehand steady then there’s nothing stopping him.

MCA: DE MINAUR D. LAAKSONEN
Demon took the first two sets 6-4, 6-2. It was all going beautifully. Then the Swiss qualifier began to fight back. He took the next two sets 7-6[7], 6-4. The 27th seed managed to come back and finished the near four-hour contest with a 6-3 decision in the final set. The rallies were long, the evening hot and the crowd loud. Fire and brimstone, forehand and backhand. De Minaur could only manage a 26-56 mark on the winners ratio. That’s really poor but breaking seven times is really impressive. He will need to return brilliantly against Rafa and not give too many free points away. He has to try and drag Nadal into long rallies. His opponent is hurt. If he can drag it out it could get really tough for the Spaniard. Most importantly he needs to have fun. He needs to enjoy it. He is the underdog. He has nothing to lose. If he can volley that would help too. Rafa doesn’t always do well against aggressive players who take the net.

MELBOURNE ARENA: CILIC D. McDONALD
We can look forward to a juicy third round matchup between Ferver and Marin Cilic. The Croat was pushed but edged to a 7-5, 6-7[9], 6-4, 6-4 win. Cilic lost serve three times and a winner/error ratio of 67-56 needs improvement. His opponent, another American young gun, brought their "A"-game but it wasn’t enough in this scrappy affair. So far Marin Cilic has looked beatable. Could he be there for the taking? Verdasco has had a string of remarkable results in Melbourne throughout his career. The h2h was 5-5 but then Cilic won the last four in a row, so he knows how to beat the Spaniard. Can he make it five in a row?


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