Wimbledon Preview: Put Up or Shut Up Time

While Roland Garros centered around whether or not Rafael Nadal could possibly BE THAT GOOD on clay and win the whole thing once again for the fourth straight time (that one was an unqualified "yes"), Wimbledon is all about Roger Federer.

The five-time defending champion arrives at SW19 having gone undefeated at the All-England Club since 2003, and without a solitary loss on a grass court in fifty-nine matches. But, here we are, and many are thinking that Nadal might actually be the favorite to become the first player to pull off the RG/Wimbledon exacta since Bjorn Borg in 1980 (and he wouldn't likely have to publicly "call out" Federer to do it, either, unlike a certain Serbian Prince Who Desperately Wants to Be King did the other day).

There's certainly reason to believe it might play out that way. Nadal's grass court game has become a wonder that no one expected to see a few years ago. He pushed Federer to five sets in last year's Wimbledon final (and very nearly won the title before that point, losing two sets in tie-breaks before knotting things), and just became the first player to win in Paris and then, a week later, take the London grass event since Ilie Nastase did it in 1973. In that tournament, Nadal knocked out Andy Roddick, as well as Novak Djokovic. He might just win Wimbledon at the end of the upcoming fortnight and be well on his way to finally claiming the #1 ranking before the end of 2008.

But not so fast.

Remember, Federer is still the Grass King until someone proves otherwise. ALMOST losing is one thing, while LOSING is another. He extended his grass string in Halle with a title a week ago, and seemed to immediately take to the grass just days after having his head (and arms, legs, torso, feet and maybe a portion of his psyche) handed to him by Rafa in the Roland Garros final. Many think that beating will take a psychological toll on Federer. I might be inclined to agree, if we weren't talking about grass court tennis here. At SW19, Federer is much more likely to compartmentalize his latest failure and declare it "ancient history." A loss in London of the same order as the one in Paris probably would wreck his confidence, but getting spanked by maybe the best clay court player who ever lived? One would think that Federer would take it with a grain of salt, especially considering the closeness of their two previous clay matchups in Monte Carlo and Hamburg heading into Roland Garros.

Yes, Federer has a tough draw (Soderling in the 2nd, Monfils in the 3rd, Djokovic in the SF), but I recall everyone staring at tough draws for Federer before only to see him move on with little difficulty, both in London and in New York in recent seasons. Plus, Nadal doesn't exactly have a coronation street presented to him, either. He might face John Isner's serve on grass in the 2nd Round, with the likes of Kiefer, Youzhny/Stepanek, Murray/Gasquet and Roddick potentially attempting to block his path to another slam final berth.

So, what's the THOUGHT about what will happen? Well...

(cue the "Jeopardy!" thinking music)

*ROUND OF 16*
#1 Federer d. #20 Hewitt (Lleyton's nightmare... again)
Ancic d. #11 Berdych (Ancic is the last player to defeat Federer on grass, but he's got a toughie in the 1st Rd. vs. #32 Llodra)
#3 Djokovic d. #13 Wawrinka
#7 Nalbandian d. #18 Karlovic (when little is expected of him, Nalbandian often strikes)
#6 Roddick d. #9 Blake
#14 Mathieu d. #4 Davydenko
#12 Murray d. #8 Gasquet (there's no Henman to divert the tabloids anymore)
#2 Nadal d. #17 Youzhny

*QF*
#1 Federer d. Ancic (not again)
#3 Djokovic d. #7 Nalbandian
#6 Roddick d. #14 Mathieu (might Andy lose to ANOTHER Frenchman in the QF, ala Gasquet '07?)
#2 Nadal d. #12 Murray

*SF*
#1 Federer d. #3 Djokovic (put up or shut up time)
#2 Nadal d. #6 Roddick

*FINAL*
#1 Federer d. #2 Nadal

...it be so easy to go the other way, but "proving it" is next to "godliness," and Rafa might not be quite there just yet. Still, this one could put last year's "instant classic" to shame.


All for now.

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