RG Day 7- Roland Garros Growth Chart

*MEN'S FINAL 16 GROWTH CHART*

[SECTION 1]
#1 Federer vs. Benneteau
#24 F.Gonzalez vs. Ginepri
...Federer is going for his sixteenth straight slam SF, and it'd have been hard to envision any of these three halting that run even before he seemed to turn up the volume on his game the other day.  Watch, he'll win this thing and all the questions about him a few months ago will be like a bad dream by the end of the summer.
PICK: FEDERER, reminding everyone who they're talking about

[SECTION 2]
#28 Ljubicic vs. Monfils
#5 Ferrer vs. #21 Stepanek
...neither Ljubicic nor Monfils has ever come up truly big in a slam (though the Croat was a RG semifinalist in '06), but one of them is going to be a win away from a SF -- and only Monfils could have Chatrier living and dying on a point-by-point basis.  The winner of the Ferrer/Stepanek match is going to be the last line of defense when it comes to keeping Federer out of the final.
PICK: FERRER, though Monfils would be a real trip on the 25th anniversary of Yannick Noah's out-of-the-blue title in 1983 (maybe one day Monfils' son will be picked up for marijuana possession, too)

[SECTION 3]
Gulbis vs. Llodra
#3 Djokovic vs. #18 Mathieu
...two Frenchmen here, but Djokovic would seem to be on his way to a fifth straight SF-or-better result at a slam.  In fact, he might be Federer's best chance at finally winning this title.  If the Serb can knock off Nadal, the Swiss Mister is suddenly the favorite.
PICK: DJOKOVIC, trying once again to be part of an all-Serb slam sweep of the singles titles

[SECTION 4]
#19 Almagro vs. Chardy
#2 Nadal vs. #22 Verdasco
...come on, Nadal is 24-0 in Paris.  He'll eventually lose, and while Almagro is better than his name recognition, it won't be in this section.  PICK: NADAL, eyeing Roger-Rafa Rumble at Roland Garros, Part Trois

** ** **

*WOMEN'S & MEN'S FINAL 16*
[COMBINED BY NATION]
5...France (5 men)
5...Russia (5 women)
5...Spain (4 men/1 woman)
3...Czech Republic (2 women/1 man)
3...Serbia (2 women/1 man)
2...Switzerland (1 man/1 woman)
1...Belarus (1 woman)
1...Chile (1 man)
1...Croatia (1 man)
1...Estonia (1 woman)
1...Italy (1 woman)
1...Latvia (1 man)
1..Poland (1 woman)
1...Slovenia (1 woman)
1...United States (1 man)


All for now.

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Pierre Cantin's RG Picks

Tennisrulz Head Honcho Pierre Cantin weighs in with a second opinion on the men's side:

*QF*
Roger Federer(1) def Igor Andreev(27)
Nikolay Davydenko(4) def Radek Stepanek(27)
Novak Djokovic(3) def Marcos Baghdatis(17)
Rafael Nadal(2) def David Nalbandian(6)

*SF*
Roger Federer def Nikolay Davydenko
Rafael Nadal def Novak Djokovic

*FINAL*
Rafael Nadal def Roger Federer

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RG Preview: Rubik's Reality?

For much of 2008, the ATP tour has been a puzzle waiting to be solved.

After so many years of riding the wave of the twin successes of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, the tour saw the field began to elbow into position to steal the "untouchables'" glory.  Novak Djokovic won the Australian Open.  Federer was beaten by players who'd have previously been lucky to grab a set off him, while Nadal was nothing special during the "no man's land" period of the schedule.   When the clay season began, neither of the world's top two players had won a singles title.

In recent weeks, the dust has settled.  Just a bit, at least.  Federer, now apparently nearly back to health after a battle with mono at the start of the year (likely not helped by his never-ending season of a year ago, which included those exhibitions with Pete Sampras), won one a title.  Nadal won three (and stretched his recent clay record to 108-2).  #1 and #2 met twice in finals with, of course, Nadal maintaining his mastery of the Swiss Mister on the red stuff

So, has the tour finally been solved by the world's top two players?

Maybe.  But don't forget the Serb lurking in the shadows, for while Federer and Nadal might have regained most of their puzzle-breaking skills in recent weeks, Djokovic pushed Nadal on clay and won his own red dirt Masters title in Rome.  Could he be about to climb the mountain again in Paris and stake a real-and-imagined claim to the #1 ranking in the world (Federer's formerly huge lead is down to about 1000 over Nadal, and around 1400 over Djokovic)?

With that possibility lingering in the air, and Federer's record consecutive weeks reign as the world #1 potentially one bad afternoon from coming to an abrupt end, here are my Roland Garros picks:

=4th Round=
#1 Federer d. #13 Monaco
#24 Gonzalez d. #27 Andreev
#4 Davydenko d. #23 Ferrero
#5 Ferrer d. #21 Stepanek
#11 Berdych d. #32 Tipsarevic
#3 Djokovic d. #16 Moya
#6 Nalbandian d. #19 Almagro
#2 Nadal d. #22 Verdasco

=QF=
#1 Federer d. #24 Gonzalez
#5 Ferrer d. #4 Davydenko
#3 Djokovic d. #11 Berdych
#2 Nadal d. #6 Nalbandian

=SF=
#1 Federer d. #5 Ferrer
#2 Nadal d. #3 Djokovic

=FINAL=
#2 Nadal d. #1 Federer

...Federer has had commanding leads in both his clay losses to Nadal in recent weeks, but couldn't close out the Spaniard.  Sounds familiar, huh?  While Federer might not yet be quite up to his former level, he's getting closer (just in time for SW19, who'd have guessed?).  If the familiar results of recent weeks are indeed a sign that things are "getting back to normal," then yet another Roger-Rafa final could very well be in the cards.  And if we get that, well, it'd be a surprise if Nadal didn't walk off with RG title #4.

All for now.

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