2011 ATP Top 10 Predictions: Looking for a Third

As the ATP tour prepares to kick-off its 2011 season, the leading story is pretty much the same one that has shaped the last few: Rafa vs. Roger.

The two have swapped the #1 ranking multiple times the last three seasons and, even though the Spaniard has opened up a bit of a gap between them over the past year, the same situation could very well arise again this coming season. Rafael Nadal had the superior overall season in '10, winning three straight slams (he's going for a non-calendar "RafaSlam" in Melbourne); but after dealing with new fatherhood, a rare spate of injuries and a few very unFedereresque losses for much of the season, Federer ended the year on a 21-2 run after the U.S. Open, winning three titles, defeating Nadal in the ATP World Tour Finals by aggressively taking the initiative like he hadn't in a couple of years, and moving into position to make his recent naysayers eat their words yet again.

The pair have now won four straight slams, but their big event dominance goes far deeper than that. Of the past twenty-three slams, they've won twenty-one. Of the last twenty-six, they've claimed twenty-three. From this pre-season vantage point, little looks to change in '11.

For brief moments the last few seasons, the likes of Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Juan Martin del Potro have occasionally risen to challenge the Big Two (the Serb and Argentine even won a single slam title each), but none has been able to solidify themselves as anything other than a minor barnacle attached to the Rafa/Roger leviathan. Robin Soderling has promisingly reached multiple slam finals, even beating Nadal and Federer along the way, but has yet to put everything together on a final Sunday in one of the season's four biggest events. Last year, Tomas Berdych added his name to the list of "others" and "almosts" battling to be the best player ranked #3 or lower.

In all likelihood, it'll be age, physical/mental wear-and-tear and injuries that will eventually remove the Spanish and Swiss stars from atop the ATP roost (in ranking mathematics, even if not public perception) rather than the culprit being a TRUE "third" who manages to outhit, outhustle and outthink the two best players in the world. Right now, that "inheritor" of the top spot might exist on the tour landscape, but he's currently an "anonymous" face who seems fated to continue to play a supporting role in the ATP drama for at least a few more seasons.

Here's an early prediction for the year-end 2011 Top 10ers (with '10 rank in parenthesis), listed alphabetically:

Marin Cilic, CRO (14): he's been inching toward a big breakout campaign for a couple of seasons now. Last year's semifinal in Melbourne needs to just be the beginning.
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Juan Martin del Potro, ARG (259): I'm still feeling guilty for inadvertantly putting a "curse" on him by picking him to finish at #1 a season ago. He finished '09 at #5 after winning the U.S. Open, then missed almost all of 2010 with a wrist injury (playing just six total matches). If he can get fully healthy -- he says his wrist is now "perfect" -- and in full form by mid-season, he could still put up enough good results to sneak back into the Top 10.
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Novak Djokovic, SRB (3): he wins his fair share of titles, and gets his fair share of big wins, too. But it's looking more and more like that '08 Australian Open title was an anomaly rather than a sign of things to come.
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Roger Federer, SUI (2): the big question is whether the "renewed" Federer we saw at the end of '10 will be the one we'll see throughout the entire '11 campaign. If so, all those past reports of his slam-winning demise were (once again) greatly exaggerated.
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David Ferrer, ESP (7): he had a largely overlooked great season in '10 (his five finals were bested by only Nadal and Federer), but one wonders if he can continue to be such a consistent force as he approaches his 30th birthday (he'll turn 29 in April).
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Rafael Nadal, ESP (1): could he ever top his '10 season? Back-to-back-to-back slams wil be difficult to replicate, but getting a fourth straight in Oz would make him the first man to do so since 1969, calendar or non-calendar.
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Andy Murray, GBR (4): he's proven he can beat Federer and Nadal, but not that he's EVER going to be a grand slam champion.
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Sam Querrey, USA (18): you'd think a player with four titles in five appearances in finals in '10 wouldn't have just barely managed to finish the season in the Top 20, but that's what happened to Querrey last year. A little more big event consistency (he managed just two Round of 16 results in the slams in '10) could move him up.
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Andy Roddick, USA (8): he's not really a slam contender anymore (though a good draw in London could give him one final chance before it's over), but he'll likely put up enough good results to hold onto a spot in the bottom of the Top 10.
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Robin Soderling, SWE (5): he's been the best non-Big 2 player in Paris the last two years, but still went 0-2 in Roland Garros finals against Roger and Rafa.
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*3 MORE TO CONSIDER*
Tomas Berdych, CZE (6): he's got the talent to win a slam, but that was the case before he finally reached his first career slam final at Wimbledon last season, too. He could rise still higher, or completely fall out of the running in '11. A clue to what might be about to come could possibly be found in his overall 9-14 record in '10 AFTER having reached the SW19 final.
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Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, FRA (13): if he could stay healthy, he'd be a virtual Top 10 lock. Thing is, he's had a hard time doing that of late.
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Fernando Verdasco, ESP (9): it'd be easy to simply flip him with another Top 10 Spaniard -- Ferrer -- on this list and feel totally fine about it.
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*EARLY SLAM OUTLOOKS*
=AO=
Federer d. Nadal (Alternates: Djokovic, Murray & Soderling)
=RG=
Nadal d. Soderling (Alt: Djokovic, Federer & a player no one predicts)
=WI=
Nadal d. Federer (Alt.: Berdych, Cilic & Murray)
=US=
Federer d. del Potro (Alt.: Djokovic, Murray & Nadal)

All for now.

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