Australian Open Predictions

Hi All.

Welcome to the opening slam of 2014. The perennial contenders are here, thrown in with some new faces and old ones, too. We have title hopefuls, journeymen and women and upset candidates. I shall go through the draw now quarter by quarter, and then preview the women's draw, too.

=NADAL QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. RAFAEL NADAL ESP...The men's draw is more unbalanced than the women's and it is very top heavy. Nadal I give the favourite to because, despite the courts playing quickly, he has a large winning record against every big seed in the top half. He is the world number one and he won Doha. He has a quite hard draw. He will play a lot of players who can challenge him. He will beat Tomic in four sets and then likely Kokkinakis, but then he will start to run into seeds. He is likely to have Monfils -who plays Harrison first up- in the third round. That will be a cracker of a match. Look for Monfils to take a set and challenge Nadal like he did in Doha. It is likely Nadal will run into Nishikori next or perhaps Hewitt. He will again be tested here and pushed to four. Of course, he may breeze through his matches, but the courts are quick. If he doesn't get pushed to four a couple of times, and then pushed to five in the latter stages, will that affect his energy levels in the finals if he gets there?
2. JUAN MD POTRO ARG...If Nadal falters, Del Potro should make at least the semifinals. I think a match-up between this man and the top seed awaits us in the quarters and that will be a barnstormer. It has five sets written all over it. Del Potro will not look ahead however. He has a tricky section to maneuver through first. His opening two opponents of Williams (not that one, or that one) and likely Bautista-Agut pose few problems, but his third opponent will likely be Paire or possibly Kyrgios. Either of those two could nick a set off the Argentine. However, if he negates that, and let's face it he will, he has a very difficult fourth round encounter up next. Dimitrov and Raonic clash in the third round. That will be a big match and the winner gets Del Potro.
3. MILOS RAONIC CAN...If Nadal falters or gets injured, and Raonic can defeat Del Potro he will make the semifinals. The main reason I will pick him over Dimitrov is that his serve is so reliable. That serve-forehand combination is lethal. He is very hard to break and if he can break Dimi a couple of times the match is done. Assuming Dimitrov even makes it.
DARK HORSE: HEWITT, AUS...A recent 250 winner, he could cause a few upsets. He will probably beat Seppi, but beating Nishikori and Nadal back to back? Probably a bit too much, but he is playing with Rafter in the doubles and that will definitely be interesting.
WILD HORSE: YOUNG, USA...Donald Young didn't need to qualify or benefit from a wildcard to get in. He opens with Haase and if he can get through that he will have Hewitt. Young has the potential to do well or to crash and burn as usual.
DONKEY: SEPPI ITA...Sepp is not playing particularly badly but he opens with an in-form Hewitt and that is bad news for Seppi. If he can beat Hewitt, it will likely be in four or five sets, he gets Young or Haase. Cursed by the draw, look for Hewitt to beat him in the opener.
UNLUCKY HORSE: HARRISON USA...Would it be anyone else? This slam he draws Monfils. He will never get a decent draw sadly. It is a vicious circle as he needs a kind draw once so he can get some ranking points so that he can be seeded so he can avoid bad draws.
UNLUCKY HORSE II:TOMIC AUS...For a guy who plays so well in Australia, landing Nadal in the first round is a cruel blow indeed. He won't disgrace himself, but at the same time he could have had a lot more impact had he landed in a slightly softer section of the draw.
=In the End...=
Nadal defeats Delpo in four or five long sets.

NADAL D. NISHIKORI
DEL POTRO D. RAONIC

NADAL D. DEL POTRO


=MURRAY QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. ROGER FEDERER SUI...The winner of this quarter is a distinct three-horse race. Murray has just come back fom injury and he looks very shaky indeed. He looked extremely rusty against Mayer in that loss. That leaves Federer at the top of this quarter essentially. Federer has two interesting opening clashes against Duckworth and -probably- Stepanek which he should breeze through. After that, he has to contend with Verdasco, who has the weapons to trouble Federer. He does not have the consistency to stay with Federer for more than a set or two, and then Federer could face Tsonga but -again- only if Tsonga makes it. We haven't seen much of Tsonga but he seemed to be playing alright in the Hopman Cup. Federer was poor in parts against Hewitt but he does seem to be playing far batter than he was last season.
2. ANDY MURRAY GBR...I think Andy Murray may be due for an early exit here. Luckily for him, however, he is once again gifted with a lovely draw for the first four rounds or so. He opens against Soeda before playing a qualifier and then likely Lopez or Llodra. Llodra played Murray here last year and it was an entertaining match, but Murray will not be troubled by Llodra or Lopez. After that, he really faces a huge test. Literally. Isner is likely to await in the fourth round. Seeded thirteen, Isner has few players who can stop him in the first few rounds except perhaps Kohl.
3. JO-WILFRIED TSONGA FRA...I would put him in the second spot but he has a much harder draw than Murray. He has Volandri, Bellucci, Simon or Cilic and then Federer to deal with. That is not an easy draw. I think Tsonga against Simon will be a very interesting match. Power against patience. I think Tsonga will lose to Federer in four in the fourth round here, after beating Simon in a very long four set match.
DARK HORSE: PHILIPP KOHLSCHREIBER GER...We know he can play well here, just ask Roddick. He has a very tricky game and he can upset Isner. He could also upset Murray and make a run to the quarterfinals. If Tsonga wins, I could see him beating Tsonga in that QF and advancing to the semifinals. Or, he could lose to Bedene in the first round.
WILD HORSE: MARIN CILIC CRO...He is very dangerous. He should beat Granollers and his match against Simon could be a five-set classic. Does he have the fitness and the game to beat Simon and Tsonga?
DONKEY: FELICIANO LOPEZ ESP...If Lopez could have chosen where he would land in the draw, facing off against Devvarman and then likely Llodra would not have been what he would've chosen. Lopez/Llodra should prove to be very entertaining, although the winner won't give Murray much trouble.
UNLUCKY HORSE: n/a...
=In the End...=
I think that Murray will make the quarters, but no further.

MURRAY D. ISNER
FEDERER D. TSONGA

FEDERER D. MURRAY


=FERRER QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. DAVID FERRER ESP...Ferrer is not in great form. Luckily, he has a draw where all he has to do is grind and he should be fine, especially over five sets. He has reached nine consecutive slam quarterfinals and he has been to the semifinals twice in three years in Australia. He opens with Gonzalez -not that one, this one is Colombian and not retired- and then Johnson or Mannarino. Following that, he could have Berankis, Dolgopolov or Chardy. He will east past those three opponents. His next opponent will be either Janowicz or Youzhny. Over five sets, he is better than either of those players. I think he will outlast Berdych in the quarterfinals, too, if Berdman makes it. Ferrer is practically a lock barring some sort of monumental collapse.
2. TOMAS BERDYCH CZE...This quarter will be dominated by Ferrer and Berdych. Each year since 2007, Berdych has had a first round exit at a slam. It won't be at this one, however, because he plays Nedovyesov in the first round. I don't like Berdych's prospects for the upcoming year (since January 2012 he has won two titles) but he should make a fourth consecutive Aussie Open quarterfinal.
3. TOMMY HAAS GER...Should Berdman falter, Haas looks likely to make a quarterfinal. He has Garcia-Lopez up first and that should be a good match which Haas should win. After that, he likely plays Roger-Vasselin and then perhaps Anderson if Anderson makes it. That will be a cracking third round match up. He then plays Berdych in the fourth round and that could be an upset. He might make the quarterfinal, but a semifinal is unlikely.
DARK HORSE: MIKHAIL YOUZHNY RUS...This section is a good section for Youzhny to be in. Janowicz does not look like he will make the third round and Youzhny does know how to beat Ferrer. He has a couple of tricky players to get by if Janowicz does not make it, such as Andujar and Mayer, who lurks in the second round. He should still be good enough to make the fourth round here.
WILD HORSE: IVE KARLOVIC CRO...The big bad serving machine is always dangerous. The amazing thing about tennis is that you only need to win three return points the entire match and you can win. Therefore, Dr. Ivo is much feared. He opens with compatriot Dodig, the 32nd seed, with the winner likely playing Berdman in the third round.
DONKEY: JERZY JANOWICZ POL...Jerzy has not recovered well from his layoff. He doesn't look in good shape and it is so hard to rebound from a slump at a slam. He should beat Thompson but Andujar may prove to be too much. Of course, he could blast his way to the semi-finals but it looks unlikely currently....
UNLUCKY HORSE: ALEJANDRO GONZALEZ COL...Ranked 74, Gonzalex makes his first ever first round at slam level and draws Ferrer. I fear his first slam outing will not be a pleasant one.
=In the End...=
Ferrer is never really troubled as he comes through, whilst Berdych fights off some competition to meet in the quarterfinals.

BERDYCH D. HAAS
FERRER D. YOUZHNY

FERRER D. BERDYCH


=DJOKOVIC QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. NOVAK DJOKOVIC SRB...This whole quarter belongs to Djokovic. He got a good draw here. Nobody will stop him. He opens with Lacko then probably Montanes. Once he's dispatched those two, he should dismiss Baghdatis or Tursunov. The fourth round clash will likely see him facing Querrey, Fognini or Gulbis, who opens against Monaco. Djokovic plays Vavsy or Gasquet in the quarters. He will have no difficulties in reaching the semifinals barring injury or the apocalypse.
2. STAN WAWRINKA SUI...He hasn't the easiest draw, admittedly, but it isn't too bad, either. He has Golubev, Falla and Pospisil in his first three rounds. He may drop a set or two but he should be fine to make the fourth. There he will play Gasquet most likely and that will be a bumper clash. It will be a repeat of their epic clash at the French last year which ended in heartbreak for the Frenchman. That match is a toss up between the Swiss and the Frenchman.
3. RICHARD GASQUET FRA...The perennial fourth-rounder should make another with little difficulty. He opens with Guez, then Davydenko and Robredo in the third round or possibly Benneteau. I don't think any of those players will best Gasquet over five sets, although Robredo/Gasquet has potential to be a classic.
DARK HORSE: ERNESTS GULBIS LAT...He will always be a dark horse. Except at Delray Beach where he seems to do quite well. He has Monaco first then Querrey or Giraldo, but if he can get momentum, he could be a serious force to be reckoned with. I can see him making the fourth round, but Djokovic should have too much.
WILD HORSE: FABIO FOGNINI ITA...Literally anything can happen here with Fognini. He could streak and easily make the fourth round or he could implode and lose to Bogomolov Jr. I think he will win a couple of rounds but he will go out before he gets to face Djokovic.
DONKEY: TOMMY ROBREDO ESP...I simply have no idea how the veteran Spaniard is playing. Perhaps he will be upset by Rosol and perhaps not. I think he could be there for the taking, but of course that remains to be seen.
UNLUCKY HORSE: LUKAS LACKO SVK...He opens with Djokovic. Enough said.
=In the End...=
Querrey makes a decent run and Gasquet/Wawrinka turns into a late night classic on Rod Laver.

WAWRINKA D. GASQUET
DJOKOVIC D. QUERREY

DJOKOVIC D. WAWRINKA


=SEMIFINAL=
#1 NADAL D. FEDERER #6
#2 DJOKOVIC D. FERRER #3

=FINAL=
#1 DJOKOVIC D. NADAL #2


*WOMEN*
=ROUND OF 16 PREDICTIONS=
#1 Serena d. #14 Ivanovic
#30 Bouchard d. Keys
#4 Li Na d. #15 Lisicki
#6 Kvitova d. #9 Kerber
#8 Jankovic d. #11 Halep
#3 Sharapova d. #16 CS Navarro
#5 Radwanska d. #10 Wozniacki
#2 Azarenka d. #13 Stephens

=QUARTERFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#1 Serena d. #30 Bouchard
#4 Li d. #6 Kvitova
#3 Sharapova d. #8 Jankovic
#2 Azarenka d. #5 Radwanska

=SEMIFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#1 Serena d. #4 Li
#2 Azarenka d. #3 Sharapova

=FINAL PREDICTION=
#1 Serena d. #2 Azarenka

I apologize for the boring picks. I promise that when the French swings round I will pick with reckless abandon.

Anyway, thanks all and visit WTABACKSPIN.

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