U.S. Open Preview

Hey Y'all. Galileo here.

I guess this is It. The last big event of the year, barring the odd Masters tournament and the year-ending championships. As I begin writing, on the 22nd of August, it is precisely 150 days till the Australian Open starts. The US Open is wide open this year. Who are the favorites? An old man and a distracted man off top form and looking lost. And on the ladies side, we have one huge favorite. The one who has won an event just before each and every slam, the lady who I have picked to win the Australian, the French and Wimbledon -- Serena Williams. The lady who gives her opponents a look, a look that says, "I’m going to break more than just your serve."

So you see, picking the winner is going to be more difficult than picking the Super Bowl winner [49ers def. Patriots, if you ask me] and to add to that I am awful at picking the right result. So, I shall look into my crystal ball and I shall choose the winner. I’m going to jump on the bandwagon and blame the Backspin Curse for these picks going wrong when they inevitably do. Why Todd? Why did you have to say Serena would win all four? Why did I agree?

Here are some pairs who will do well at the Open this year:

Women's Doubles
Hsieh Su-wei / Peng Shuai
Sara Errani / Roberta Vinci
Cara Black / Sania Mirza
Raquel Kops-Jones/Abigail Spears

Men’s Doubles
Bob Bryan / Mike Bryan
Alexander Peya / Bruno Soares
Daniel Nestor / Nenad Zimonjic
Julien Benneteau / Edouard Roger-Vasselin
Vasek Pospisil/ Jack Sock

=DJOKOVIC QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. NOVAK DJOKOVIC SRB ...Djokovic got handed a dreadful draw. Every single player in his section has been seeded at an event this year bar, perhaps, two. Djokovic gets a simple start to his campaign as he starts against Diego Schwartzman. That will not last an hour. Next up is Muller or Mathieu and both have a decent slam record when they were at their peak. Djokovic should not be overly troubled by either of those players, but Querrey or Garcia-Lopez will likely be waiting in the third round. After that first test, Kohl or Isner, should be waiting in the fourth round. I think Novak will drop a set down the line. Then he plays Murray. Murray and Federer were both fortunate Nadal withdrew. Murray is seeded eighth but playing as if he’s ranked eighteen. I’m going to talk as if Murray does make the quarterfinal. Not bad, just not great. I think Djokovic will be pushed to five by Murray. I do not think Murray as he currently is can beat Djokovic over five sets. Djokovic is just too strong for this quarter.
2. ANDY MURRAY GBR ...I do not think Tsonga has the consistency to win over five sets against Murray unless Murray plays very badly, though that is a serious possibility. Murray therefore is the second best player in these rankings. Murray opens with Haase and will then almost certainly play Stepanek who has beaten him this year, but on grass. If he survives those two tests, he lands Verdasco in the third round. If Ferver gets there that will be very tricky for Murray. Ferver has a nasty ‘inside out’ serve on the deuce court that kicks into Murray’s forehand. Tsonga also has a fairly nasty three matches but he will be good enough to make the fourth round. And the winner gets Djokovic. This quarter is like The Hunger Games.
3. JO-WILFRIED TSONGA FRA ...Tsonga is here to take over if [and when] the big seeds crash and burn. Expect him to negotiate Monaco, Busta and Benneteau without too much difficulty. I think that on clay this would be a horror draw for Tsonga, but he should be able to win on hard courts over five sets. The match between him and Murray has ‘classic’ written all over it if both bring their "A"-game.
DARK HORSE: JOHN ISNER, USA ...Let’s be honest. If you come equipped with that serve, then you’ll always be a threat. Isner has Giron then possibly Kukushkin to open with. Kohl could beat him in the third round -- he has done so before, but I think Isner is really pumped and ready for this. Isner will push Djokovic to at least four in the fourth round, possibly more. Isner could easily just serve his way to the semifinals. This is his best slam.
WILD HORSE: PAIRE, FRA ...Paire opens with Bennyman in not too hard a match for him to win. Next he lands Beck and that, too, is an easily winnable match. Then he plays Tsonga. I could see Paire getting to the fourth round or even further. But then again, with the year he has had, I’m thinking embarrassing first round exit. *Sorry, I mean another embarrassing first round exit.
DONKEY: QUERREY USA ...Sam is having an OK year but nothing stellar. He has Lu in the first round and that has upset potential. It is a pity he landed in such a loaded section of the draw, as he probably had a chance to go deep if he’d landed in an easier section.
UNLUCKY HORSE: DJOKOVIC SRB ...Have you seen Djokovic’s draw? That is a nasty draw.
=In the End...=
Djokovic and Murray go five long sets. Either one could win. Djokovic has been number one and Murray hasn’t, and that means Djokovic is better at winning these kinds of matches so I’ll pick Djokovic.

4th Rd.: DJOKOVIC D. ISNER, MURRAY D. TSONGA
QF: DJOKOVIC D. MURRAY

=WAWRINKA QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. STANISLAS WAWRINKA SUI ...Wawrinka does not have the easiest draw, but he has a manageable draw. I said his draw at the French Open [I was in America for the beginning of Wimbledon so the French was my last preview] was fairly easy once he got past his opening round, but this time I think he should be fine. He should beat Vesely, despite some of the youngster’s fantastic shots, and then he’ll come through another test against Mahut or Bellucci. I like Donald Young to be his opponent in the third round. Wawrinka will come through in three tight sets. A fellow one-handed backhand user awaits him in the fourth round: Youzhny or Robredo. Robredo has the form but this tournament is one Youzhny has a very good history in. Kyrgios may also blast his way to the fourth. I see Vavsy being challenged but coming through without being tested too hard. Then he gets to face the young player of the year Raonic.
2. MILOS RAONIC CAN ...This man won the US Open series. Don’t ask me why that was. Everyone knows Federer was the player of the summer. It’s like how Jankovic, Safina and the like used to be world number ones but everyone knew where the power really lay. Raonic has simply got too much power for his section. It’s weird to think Raonic owns a section now. On paper his draw looks simple. He should beat qualifier Daniel easily in his opener. Gojowczyk waits in the next round, I think. He challenged Nadal earlier this year [took a set] and has beaten Tsonga in the Davis Cup. He has been in the top hundred this year, too. He has weapons. Raonic should still be too much. Almost certainly Rosol will be the seed he faces first. Rosol has been to three finals and won one this year. Raonic has won in his only final (in Washington D.C.). Expect him to be tested but come through in four. Nishikori doesn’t have it physically in him to last to the fourth round, so he’ll face a surprise there. And then he must face Wawrinka in the quarters. What a match that will be.
3. TOMMY ROBREDO ESP ...Robredo actually got a good draw. He has made the quarters at every slam except Wimbledon with last year’s result. He will be happy with making the fourth round and challenging Wawrinka in that round. Roger-Vasselin, Pospisil, Youzhny is not the easiest path but Robredo should have enough form to come through it. Perhaps he can gain revenge for his loss to Vavsy at the last hard court slam?
DARK HORSE: MIKHAIL YOUZHNY RUS ...Kyrgios is a dark horse in this section, but Youzhny is a dark horse for the semifinals. Yes I am crazy. But let’s say Youzhny catches fire and the draw falls for him a little. Let’s say he beats Wawrinka in the fourth and then Raonic in the quarterfinals? The potential is there for a big run.
WILD HORSE: LUKAS ROSOL CZE ...He just won a title and he could easily break some brackets. He is at a career high ranking and has been winning lately. He should dismiss Coric and then Sijsling before having a serious go at Raonic. The key word there was should. His slam record this year is abysmal. I still think he will be able to put together a decent run.
DONKEY: KEI NISHIKORI JPN ...Form is bad. Game is good. Physically speaking, however, does Kei have enough in him to actually get through three best of five set matches? I do not think so. I think Sock will be too fit for Kei. Nishikori is seeded ten but if he wins three I will be so impressed.
UNLUCKY HORSE: JEREMY CHARDY FRA ...Chardy has had a pretty good year. I first watched him in a match when he played Djokovic at the 2009 or 2008 Aussie Open. He was a young, powerful guy who took it to Djokovic. Now he is heading towards "veteranship" but is still a solid top thirty fixture. Chardy opens with Falla and then Kavcic or Young. That is a nasty draw for Chardy. If he wins those, he gets Wawrinka.
=In the End...=
I place my faith in Wawrinka. I know that is a risky business but over five sets he should be to good. Also Sock is here and I think he will take advantage of a physically weaker Nishikori, who is out of form and injury plagued, too.

4th Rd.: WAWRINKA D. ROBREDO, RAONIC D. SOCK
QF: WAWRINKA D. RAONIC

=FERRER QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. DAVID FERRER ESP ...Ferru gets the top spot here by default. Sheer consistency and tenaciousness may just be enough to get him through this section, this quarter. Džumhur and Tomic [or Brown] will be his first two matches. His sheer physicality and consistency will be too much for these players. Next up is possibly Simon. Simon does what Ferrer does but in a more boring and less effective way. Ferrer will have few issues until the fourth round. Cilic has a tricky draw but he should make it. If Cilic played Ferru on the grass we know who would win. But this is hard and Cilic’s serve is not big enough to break through Ferrer’s return game. Ferrer has a good slam draw. He is in a section and a quarter with players he can handle.
2. MARIN CILIC CRO ...Baghdatis is still hanging around, eight years and eighteen pounds removed from his prime, but Cilic should be too good for him these days. Next is a qualifier of some talent but still a negotiable match before the big one. Eighteenth seed Anderson plays Janowicz in a servers match with the winner being Anderson, I think. Anderson versus Cilic will again be a server’s match and one I think Cilic will win. If Cilic can somehow overcome Ferrer then the semifinals are likely to be his. I think that Ferrer has one last shot at a slam. And I think it is here with no Rafa, a lesser Djokovic and an old Federer. He may never get a chance like this again and nobody is going to stop him except one of the big guys. Cilic is big only in stature.
3. TOMAS BERDYCH CZE ...I just don’t know. Berdych is like one of my local bus routes -- when it’s good, it’s very good. When it is bad it is shockingly bad. I remember waiting for it for 45 minutes in the pouring rain once. The point of this bad analogy [I have so many bad analogies] is that for Berdych it is either very good or quite appalling. Every year since 2004 [except 2006] Berdych has lost in the first round of at least one of the slams. It has not happened yet this year. Hewitt is his opening match. I think he loses in the first round but that is not my official prediction, because I am not as brave as Todd is. But I feel the upset.
DARK HORSE: KEVIN ANDERSON RSA ...Three fourth rounds at the slams this year are complimented by a pair of Masters level quarterfinals [one in Canada recently] and two final appearances. Most of his achievements have come on the hard courts, too. Anderson has to beat Cuevas and then probably Janowicz. I think he can do it. I also think he has more than just a chance against Cilic. Anderson can’t beat Ferrer but he should make at least the third round, maybe more.
WILD HORSE: ERNESTS GULBIS LAT ...I hate having to predict him in slams. So I’ll just imitate a horoscope. You know those horoscopes you get in free newspapers -- the ones where being free makes you feel like you’ve been ripped off. I sense something dramatic in your future. I see smashed rackets... big backhands... confused opponents... and ultimately disappointment.
DONKEY: GILLES SIMON FRA ...Simon has really fallen off the face of the planet with injuries and a serious lack of form. He will soon crash out of the US Open, probably in the first two rounds. Simon may even lose to unknown qualifier Albot of Romania. Simon’s career is just like the meadows he is playing on. It’s going flush. [Hey- Todd’s writing is better than mine. I never pretended any different.]
UNLUCKY HORSE: TOMAS BERDYCH CZE ...Four former champs reside in this draw. Three are seeded. Drawing the other was a one-in-96 chance. And it happened to Berdych. If this was a movie, Hewitt would triumph from two set to love down and go on to win the tournament. Berdych got a very nasty draw and I don’t know if he can survive what the Aussie brings. If he survives that then he gets Klizan and then Giraldo. Nasty, nasty draw. I don’t envy him.
=In the End...=
Usually Ferrer’s section is the most open with the most upset potential. Not this time, however, not this time. Ferrer is going to be tested, yes, but he will come through strongly in the end. Really, there is no one here capable of winning over five sets.

4th Rd.: FERRER D. CILIC, BERDYCH D. LOPEZ
QF: FERRER D. BERDYCH

=FEDERER QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. ROGER FEDERER SUI ...Please. Federer has not been handed an easy draw. The standard of the ATP is now so high that it is difficult to get an easy draw. But this is close. Matosevic and then Groth are his opening two matches. If the Aussies played together against Federer they might not win even then. Federer will then play Karlovic or Nieminen or Melzer or Granollers. Any of these players could make it. None will take a set. If Fognini makes it to the fourth then he will be Federer’s next opponent. If not Fognini then Bautista-Agut looks the most likely candidate. After those four matches, Fedex gets to play Dimitrov or possibly Gasquet. Federer is 12-2 against Gasquet and this is a weaker version of Gasquet. He beat Dimitrov fairly handily on hard courts in Basel last year, but that is Basel. Federer can roll through playing at 85 per cent until the QF against Dimitrov and save some energy, but he won’t do that.
2. GRIGOR DIMITROV BUL ...It must be so nice to own your very own section at a slam. Okay so Federer and Djokovic own a half [more in Djokovic’s case] but it is a good feeling to know you are the biggest fish in a pond. It comes with pressure but...



Anyway, Dimitrov has a nice test in his opener. He gets Harrison, who he beat earlier this year in a slam. Next he will have Berlocq or Sela and both of those are better on a different surface. I think Goffin will be his third round opponent. Goffin has done a lot of winning lately. He won in Kitzbuhel and he made the quarterfinals the past week. Dimitrov will win that in four entertaining sets. Gasquet and another entertaining four set win will be waiting for him in the fourth round. Both he and Federer have tiger papers on their routes through but, really, they will make their projected match-up with ease.
3. RICHARD GASQUET FRA ...This section is remarkably soft and that is the justification for Gasquet’s placement. He has the talent and the ability to do anything. Right now he is lacking in the fitness and form department. I think he is good enough to get round Monfils and his other opponents and make the fourth round.
DARK HORSE: ROBERTO BAUTISTA-AGUT ESP ...Fognini is too, well, Fognini. He can implode with more pizazz than Mardi Gras. Fognini’s head is a dark strange place and few understand it. Least of all himself. I think Agut will go through on account of the fact he is sensible. Yes, sensible. He is in the right place and he will go right through to the fourth round before being terminated by Federer.
WILD HORSE: MONFILS FRA/FOGNINI ITA ...Do you remember their match at the French Open? Yes you do, I know you do. Monfils won 5-7, 6-2, 6-4, 0-6, and 6-2. Oh, and this happened:



I just don’t know. I shall continue my fine tradition of just not predicting how either of these two will do. When it’s good your world changes and suddenly you want to go and try that shot they just pulled off. When it is bad, however, you have to keep watching because it’s like a car crash. It’s impossible to look away. Everything they do seems to go wrong and they look ridiculous. Entertainment is guaranteed, but if you watch mental stress will almost definitely occur.
DONKEY: JOAO SOUSA POR ...Sousa is the lowest seed in the pack. He just got an unlucky draw. He got Goffin in the second round. I’m also not sure if he can even beat Dancevic. He is out of form and ranked as the lowest seed for a reason.
UNLUCKY HORSE: IVO KARLOVIC CRO ...So he recovers from a stroke, wins several titles and has a very strong year. He is seeded 25th and he hasn’t been that highly seeded for some time. He draws Nieminen in the first round and then Melzer or Granollers in the second. If he comes through those two difficult matches he gets to play Federer. That isn’t fun. That’s brutal.
=In the End...=
Federer reigns supreme and remains on cruise control throughout. I do not see another alternative here. Dimitrov is not ready to beat Federer in five sets.

4th Rd.: DIMITROV D. GASQUET, FEDERER D. BAUTISTA-AGUT
QF: FEDERER D. DIMITROV [at night on Ashe]

=SEMIFINALS=
#1 DJOKOVIC D. WAWRINKA #3
#2 FEDERER D. FERER #4

=FINAL=
#2 FEDERER D. #1 DJOKOVIC

...Yep, Todd and I are in accordance here. In fact our picks are kind of similar. I think the stars have aligned and Federer is going to do a "Sampras." If he wins here Nadal won’t be able to catch his majors total. Wawrinka will make it back-to-back semifinals, too, proving he is not a two slam wonder as it were.

*WOMEN*
=ROUND OF 16 PREDICTIONS=
#1 Serena d. #24 Stosur
#11Ivanovic d. #11 Pennetta
#20 Kuznetsova d. #3 Kvitova
#17 Makarova d. #7 Bouchard
#9 Jankovic d. #6 Kerber
#4 Radwanska d. #14 Safarova
#5 Sharapova d. #10 Wozniacki
#2 Halep d. #19 Venus #19 Venus d. #2 Halep (I changed my mind. I’ve been deliberating. I think on balance I’ll take Venus Williams here. Halep has suffered from some injury problems and lack of form. Venus looks red hot.)

=QUARTERFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#1 Serena d. #11 Ivanovic
#20 Kuznetsova d. #17 Makarova
#4 Radwanska d. #9 Jankovic
#5 Sharapova d. #19 Venus

=SEMIFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#1 Serena d. #20 Kuznetsova
#5 Sharapova d. #4 Radwanska

=FINAL PREDICTION=
#1 Serena d. #5 Sharapova

...Yep. Williams will win this but she will drop a set. Kuznetsova has an injured Vika and Kvitova in New York near here. A soft section for Makarova, and I don’t think Bouchard looks strong enough to take advantage of a fairly soft draw. Radwanska and Sharapova should get through a slightly less stacked lower section, but watch out for Venus here. And Serena will drop less than five games should she meet ‘Pova in the final.

Todd and I are clearly out of our minds. But at least we haven’t cursed her. Well, I haven’t. (Hey this isn’t my blog. Todd was nice enough to let me write for him. I’m already making excuses.)

Enjoy the slam everyone!

Another quick point: the more time Nadal spends away from the tour due to injury, the more I’m going to consider leaving him out of the Players of the Year list or put him lower down. Yes, that is far away, but I have to start thinking about it now.

Anyway, thanx all and visit WTABACKSPIN please.

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