Wk.7- Empires Inevitably Fall

Hey Y'all. Galileo here.

Empires inevitably fall, and when they do, history judges them for the legacies they leave behind. So said Noah Feldman. Rafa has several things in common with the Roman Empire. The Roman Empire existed for an impossibly long time, ruling over a huge number of people and civilizations such as the Egyptians and Greeks. Rafa has dominated his own clay empire since 2005, which is also an impossibly long time.

* - He has won 99 per cent of French Open matches
* - He won 81 clay matches in a row
* - He is 45-7 in clay finals.
* - Djokovic and Federer [representing Egypt and Greece in this analogy] have victories over him in finals just like the Romans sometimes lost.
* - He has won 92.77 per cent of matches on clay. That is the best ever.
* - He is 55-3 in clay semi-finals and had won 52 semis in a row over 12 years until he lost to Fognini.
* - 321-25 all time on clay since 2002.
* - Nine French Open titles.
* - Eight Barcelona titles.
* - Eight Monte Carlo titles.
* - Seven Rome titles.
* - Three Madrid titles.
* - A pair in Stuttgart and Acapulco.

Nadal, like the Romans, has dominated for what feels like an age with an occasional loss here and there. But empires must fall. The smallest crack appeared when Soderling beat an injured Rafa in an epic four setter. He still dominated, but there was a question or two. A very quiet, whispered question, but a question nonetheless.

In Paris, Rafa's ancient Rome. He has remained untouchable. But Novak has beaten him at his Masters, at his equivalent of Milan, Pisa and Pompeii. The questions were getting louder but still the empire held firm. Still the empire remained. Yet the aura was not what it was. Shock losses to Zeballos [yes, after a seven month layoff] and Ferrer increased the volume of the questions. No matter where Djokovic [or the Greeks] beat Rafa he held firm in Paris. Nobody beats a fully fit Rafa over five on clay. Federer [Egypt] should have once, but Rafa escaped. It may have been different had Federer taken that Rome final.

Paris remains Nadal's last bastion. He still invades and conquers but the further reaches of his empire remain shaky. Watching him beat Cuevas was troubling. Rafa was in deep trouble but one knew he would come through. The questions grew louder in my mind. He beat him 6-0 in the third, but he could have lost.

And then Fognini beat him.

Fognini beat him in the semi-final of a clay event. The semi-final of a clay event. That doesn't happen. It simply does not happen. Rome is weak. Rome is showing the strain. The empire is not what it was.

Chris Evert won 125 matches in a row [including dominating wins and love sets over players like Goolagong, Austin, Navratilova and Wade] and that was an age. Rafa may only have won 81 in a row [and their opponents were of equal caliber] but he has had as big an empire as Chrissie ever had.
But his empire is slowly collapsing and Paris remains his final bastion. His Rome.

So, what kind of legacy will he leave behind?



*WEEK 7 CHAMPIONS*
RIO de JANEIRO, BRAZIL
S: David Ferrer d. Fabio Fognini 6-2/6-3
D: Klizan/Oswald d. Andujar-Alba/Marach
DELRAY BEACH, USA
S: Ivo Karlovic d. Donald Young 6-3/6-3
D: Bryan/Bryan d. Klaasen/Paes
MARSEILLE, FRANCE
S: Gilles Simon d. Gael Monfils 6-4/1-6/7-6(4)
D: Draganja/Kontinen d. Fleming/Marray


PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Ivo Karlovic, CRO
...The 35-year old became the oldest winner since 1989 in Tel Aviv (and that winner was some guy called Jimmy Connors -- perhaps you have heard of him?). Karlovic never lost serve and he hit 91 aces. That 91 is a tournament record. Sadly for Karlovic, he had his 2010 Delray Beach ace record broken.



Haas and Hewitt are a surprise. It's worth noting that aces list does not cover all of Sampras' career. Still, it is an interesting arms race to watch. I think Ivanisevic will be caught eventually. Seeded fourth, Karlovic looked like he'd go deep in this tournament despite the fact it traditionally has a good field. There have been 250's where a top five seed is not seeded at 500 level. Delray Beach is popular. Anyway, Karlovic landed the very dangerous Dustin Brown in the first round but avoided the upset with a 6-3,6-7,6-2 decision. He rarely loses breakers but did so then, losing it 7-3. He beat Aussie star Thanasi Kokkinakis 7-6(4),7-6(2) next. He dismissed Steve Johnson, who is improving all the time, 6-2, 7-6(4) to reach another ATP semi-final. Adrian Mannarino was competitive in a 6-3,6-4 score line that doesn't tell the story at all. Adrian pushed the fourth seed all the way before finally folding. In the final, Donald Young had no chance against an inspired Ivo and could not exploit the weaknesses of Karlovic in the Croat's straight sets victory. With the 6-3,6-3 win, Karlovic became the second straight Croat to win this event after Marin Cilic took this event last year. Karlovic made his first final of the year and won his second title since 2008. Like Gilles Simon he has not won more than one a year for a long time. Ivo went 0-4 in finals last year and is now 7-8 overall. Karlovic is up six spots to 23 in the rankings whilst Andy Murray and Grigor Dimitrov both moved up at the expense of Nadal and Cilic, respectively. Frankly, I think the French Open should just award Nadal the top seed. I don't think anybody would object.
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RISER: David Ferrer, ESP
...Look at this beautiful animal:



Now that, that is a gift horse. The first rule when one receives such a handsome gift? Never ever look it in the mouth. Just don't. What are you even looking for back there? Well, this time Fognini was the gift stallion. In defeating Nadal, Fognini effectively handed the event to Ferrer. It would have been hard for the Italian to win again after such a huge win against anyone, but to follow it up with a win over a top ten player in a final was surely too much to ask. Ferrer and Nadal frequently play in the same tournaments and they usually occupy the top two or three seeds. The script is always the same: ruthlessly consistent Ferrer eases through the draw and makes the final whilst ruthless Rafa obliterates everyone and gets to the final. The final is then overhyped. Nadal dominates said final and Ferrer smiles on the outside during the trophy ceremony. I am not allowed to repeat what we all knows goes on in Ferrer's head every bloody time he loses to Nadal, but luckily Spanish is his first language, so it's probably something like, "Joder. ¿Por qué está siempre ganar? Yo quiero ganar. Una vez que quiero ganar."

(If you were to translate the above, you do so at your own discretion and risk.)

Ferrer defeated qualifiers Daniel Gimeno-Traver and Thiemo De Bakker in the first two rounds, although De Bakker retired down a set and a break. Ferrer got past Juan Monaco in three before manhandling Andreas Haider-Maurer in the semi-final. In the final he cruised, barely breaking a sweat. But this time Ferrer does not need to translate the above [which may or may not contain Spanish swearing]. He can instead say, "Por fin." Ferrer rises to nine in the world. Every player ranked from 3-9 is within 1300 ranking points. Federer is 4000 points up from that, but 4000 behind Novak Djokovic.
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SURPRISE: Gilles Simon, FRA
...Simon has his second title since April 2012. He is 2-3 in finals since then, with his last coming in September 2013 in Metz. The French usually do well in France. Actually, it's funny how the Aussies, French, British and Americans usually do really well in their home countries. Home advantage really does seem to apply. Except to you, Sam, funny anomaly that you are. You are my lovely exception that proves the rule.
With the win, Simon goes to 340-236, a winning percentage of almost exactly 59%. Makes Haas' 561-315 [almost exactly 64%] look exceptional, which it really is. Haas had originally planned to come back in mid-March, but realistically had hoped to do so for the Munich Open, his hometown event that he won back in 2013. It will be the hundredth anniversary this year.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2015/01/3/Saturday-Tommy-Haas-Munich.aspx">

Yep, I decided to spruce up the Simon bit by talking about a player you actually want to watch. Watching Gilles Simon make me really excited, said no one ever. Anyways, Simon claimed another title and got up to 12-5 in finals. He faced no seeds but did play Borna Coric and Sergiy Stakhovsky on his way to the final where he defeated Gael Monfils to give himself a 5-1 advantage in their head-to-head. Simon is now second only to Juan Martin del Potro in win percentage in ATP finals for active players. Yes, Delpo is active. Kind of. Simon takes his boring effective game onto Frankfurt [for the Davis Cup] or to Indian Wells. Perhaps he can find a cure for his Arantxaphobia [fear of hitting the ball out] in Miami. After all, they have cures for everything there.
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FRESH FACE: Yoshihito Nishioka, JPN
...Ladies, gentleman and everything in between, I give you Yoshihito Nishioka. He is a talented lefty who has won one challenger:



Here is a match against Ilhan:



He has risen to 145 in the world, his best but surely not his best ever. That is yet to come.
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DOWN: John Isner, USA
...This is America. The country that celebrates the fourth of July [as an Aussie living in Britain, I say hooray for the fourth of July and the country that always hosts the Super Bowl]. Isner has a record here that is top ten in caliber. If he can't win here, he is seriously out of form.
He lost to Marinko Matosevic in straight sets. He didn't even take a set in America against a player who lost in under an hour to Nishioka, a Japanese qualifier. That is the definition of an inexcusable loss.
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UPSET: Fabio Fognini, ITA
...Fognini is like the weather. Predictably unpredictable. He has big weapons and a game that can make any and everybody who faces him struggle to win. He has a serve that snarls and bites, a forehand that he can change up as he is hitting the stroke and a backhand that looks ineffective but that tears chunks through his opponents. Of course this is Fabio on a good day. Fabio on a bad day is, well, think back to the Wall Street crash, then imagine an earthquake on Wall Street while a giant bird takes a dump all over the place. Think of that. That is Fabio on a bad day, but much more entertaining. He beat Nadal in three epic sets by being aggressive but creative with drop shots, serve-volleying and making Nadal run all over the place. Nadal had no clue where half the balls Fognini hit were going.

Disclaimer:

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=Five things I liked this week...=
1. A 155th doubles final for the Bryan Brothers, and they won their 104th. These are Navratilova numbers.
2. Donald Young and Bernard Tomic are slowly, consistently getting into the groove and entrenching themselves in the top 50.
3. Ivo Karlovic is this year's Haas -- he remembers the 70s and he is one of the top thirty best players in the world. Nobody wants him in their section of Indian Wells or Miami. Right now he could feasibly beat anyone on his day.
4. I think we got a glimpse of a future slam final in Pliskova against Halep in Dubai. Unless it's at the French, my money is on Pliskova.
Tennis TV is a godsend. I watched the Fognini/Nadal match live and this was my reward:



1. RIO SF – Fognini d. Nadal 1-6,6-2,7-5
...A point from defeat in the first round, Fognini came back and beat Nadal in the semis. He was blitzed for the first half an hour, but slowly put his awkward game into gear. Fognini slowly ground Nadal down until the Spaniard didn't know if he was coming or going. Fognini got just four games in the final. Oh, Fabio.
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2. DELRAY SF - Young d. Tomic 4-6,6-4,6-2
...In the battle of the most underrated young guns, Tomic could not hang on and fell to Young. They have a similar career arc. Both overhyped when young, both capitulating after promising junior careers and good early results, then both have slowly returning to prominence. Young may have lost in the final but he is rising for sure. This is still one of my favorite 2015 moments.
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3. MARSEILLE FINAL - Simon d. Monfils 6-4,1-6,7-6
...Monfils choked and Simon capitalized on the failings of the exciting Frenchman. There really is no boring Monfils match, but Simon wins more for that exact reason.
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*DUBAI, UAE*
=SF=
Djokovic [1] d. [4] Berdych
Federer[2] d. [3] Murray
=FINAL=
Djokovic [1] d. [2] Federer

...I think Fed rebounds here, but I can't pick against Djokovic just yet.

*ACUPULCO, MEX*
=SF=
Anderson [4] d. [1] Nishikori
Ferrer [2] d. [3] Diimitrov
=FINAL=
Ferrer [2] d. [4] Anderson

...Something seems off with Kei. Anderson could just muscle his way through most of the field. I like Ferrer to just stay in the zone.
*SAO PAULO, BRA*
=SF=
Nadal [1] d. [4] Fognini
Robredo [2] d. [3] Cuevas
=FINAL=
Nadal [1] d. [2] Robredo

...I don't care if Rafa is injured. He is still too good for this weaker field.



Casey Dellacqua lost in the second round of the doubles with Sam Stosur. She lost to Safarova 6-7,7-6,7-5. There is no shame in that, especially as she accepted a late wild card into the event. She drew seventh seed Venus in Qatar in the first round of Doha. Venus just lost 6-4,6-2 to Safarova in Dubai but she beat Dellacqua in three 3-6,6-2,6-1. Dellacqua plays with Chan against Pennetta/Hingis in the doubles. Her rankings on the 23rd are inside the top forty for both disciplines. She is 38 and 34 for doubles and singles, respectively. Still, that is quite an achievement. To be a top forty mainstay in two disciplines is quite respectable.

Side Note: I forgot to add in up there: Kokkinakis is slowly rising. He is consistently qualifying and consistently winning a match here and there. Automatic entry into slams is not far off.



There he is, inside the top ten at number seven. That is the top fifteen and, with direct entry into slams at 104, there is a good chance the top seven all get direct entry if results keep going their way. Kokkinakis plays in a 500 tournament this week and he has already qualified for the main draw. He wins his first match, he is at 124. He wins two and he is at 110. He will make it into the French Open directly if he keeps this up.

Thanx all and visit WTA BACKSPIN please.

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