Wk.43- The Fedining Rafalry

Hey Y'all. Galileo here.

Welcome to 2012. Robin Williams is still alive. So is Whitney Houston. The Bryans are threatening to take the word number one back and Federer has beaten Nadal. Oh, and Djokovic won in Australia.

Really it is 2015 and all those tennis things have happened this year. If Federer was going to hand Nadal a loss it was going to happen in Basel, or at least on indoor hard. The crowd really helped their local boy win again. Ignore the statistics for a moment -- they will come later. This was revenge a long time in coming. This was Federer showing he can compete at the age of 34 with Nadal so long as it isn’t on clay.

Roger Federer shrugs off Rafael Nadal to claim his 88th career title: https://t.co/y7t0ErYUTw #ATP #CNNOpenCourt pic.twitter.com/Q27FgnioNb

— CNN Sport (@cnnsport) November 2, 2015

This rivalry has defined tennis since 2004. Eleven years of storylines, of moments intertwined with our history as well as the ATP’s. This is the rivalry we love. It’s better even than Manning/Brady where terrific Tom is so utterly dominant. It’s better than the Sydney and Melbourne city rivalry, too. So what if Rafa leads it? If they had played more on hard courts it could very well have gone Federer’s way. One reason it is so skewed is because Nadal rarely made his seeding on hard courts. He was more vulnerable. Federer always made his seeding on clay in his prime years.

We all know how it goes. Rafa pounds away at the Federer backhand and eventually Federer comes up with magic or he breaks down. The thump of Nadal’s backhand, the swish and flick of Federer’s backhand.

And then Federer dances, glides around and strikes a forehand out to Rafa’s backhand. He bullies the backhand then hits the winner to Rafa’s forehand. Sometimes Rafa can do something extraordinary with what should be a winning shot from Federer and sometimes not. But they give us a waltz so easy on the eyes we can’t look away.

And the record of 23-11, while not close, is no worse than the Graf/Seles 10-5 record. And it is far better than the Sharapova/Serena, whatever that is. Furthermore, Nadal leads just 10-9 off clay. They’ve played 34 matches and 15 have come on clay. That’s a huge chunk of them right there. And what if Federer had won that Rome final? Federer and Nadal are 3-3 in non-clay finals, with Federer having a great chance to win two of those.

Enough words to write War and Peace have been written about that final. That Wimbledon final, the greatest match there ever was or ever will be. Who else but these two could have played such a match?

Ignore the stupid music and watch this clip:


And then watch this one:


The two greatest passing shots of the tournament without doubt have taken place on the last two points. So said the commentator and it has stuck with me. That match was so beyond epic, beyond thunder dome the commentary is memorable.

Sure the other rivalries and the big four were nice, but this was THE rivalry. This was the one we’ll still be talking about. You might mention in passing that Australian Open final in 2012, but these two are the ones you’ll talk about with reverence.

But enough of that. The season is almost over and we have but another two weeks or so. Let’s get stuck into some tennis...

QUESTION: What day does the Australian Open start?

=RANKINGS WATCH=
Top 32 - Kyrgios is the steady one. He stays at 30. Dimitrov has fallen a place to 29, which is disgraceful. He’s too good for that. Johnson and Chardy round out the top 32. Kohl has the same points as Chardy but is number 33.
Top 10 – Big servers abound at 11-14 with Tsonga ahead of Cilic, Anderson, Isner and Raonic. The Canuck drops five places. With the Canadian falling, Gasquet goes up two places to 9 in the world. His highest ever was 7. Tsonga sits at 10 but is over 100 behind his compatriot. Cilic is up two spots to 11 and is just 60 points adrift of the top ten. That top ten race will be fascinating to watch next year.
Top 8 – Ferrer is 500 behind Kei at 7 but 1200 above Gasquet. Less than 300 points separate Berdych, Nadal and Nishikori. Could Nadal get back in that top five?
Top 4 – Murray and Federer swap. Djokovic is so far ahead though, it almost seems like he duped the system. Wawrinka stays where he has been for a long time, at number three. The gap between 2 and 3 is 180. If Federer makes the Paris final he would almost certainly clinch the number two ranking.



*WEEK 43 CHAMPIONS*
BASEL, SWITZERLAND
S: Roger Federer def. Rafael Nadal 6-3/5-7/6-3
D: Peya/Soares def. J.Murray/Peers
VALENCIA, SPAIN
S: Joao Sousa def. Roberto Bautista Agut 3-6/6-3/6-4
D: Butorac/Lipsky d. F.Lopez/Mirnyi


PLAYER OF THE WEEK: FEDERER
...Just two events this week and the winner of the 500 was always going to get this award unless something funky happened. Rafa is 5th all-time with titles. He has 67. Federer is 3rd with 88 but is just six behind Lendl. Could he catch Connors on 109? In finals he is again third. He has made 134. Let that sink in for a moment. Lendl at 146 and Connors at 164 aren’t unassailable. Federer just keeps going and 100 titles might just be attainable. If he can win a title in the last two weeks of the season and then it is even more achievable. In Basel, he showed his age and his fight. Fed opened with a tricky encounter against Kukushkin. The Kazakh was not at his best and may have had a nagging injury. At this point in the season who doesn’t have a nagging injury or two? Todd and I even have a nagging injury. After the 1 and 2 drubbing Rog moved onto tricky German Kohlschreiber and he got out of hot water winning 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. Philipp was on form and was inches from the upset. Federer was cool in dismissing Goffin 6-1 in the third. He was no match for Sock in a 6-3, 6-4 victory for the Swiss. And then he beat Rafa 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 to close out the win. Federer has been inside the top ten for 13 years now since October 2002. 682 consecutive weeks and 692 overall. Ten finals this season and he has won six. He is also 7-5 in Basel finals, having competed every year since 2000 except 2002-05. Twelve finals is the most by one player at any event. Right, enough of Federer.
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RISER: SOUSA
...Formulaic and statistical is the theme here on BACKSPIN this week. The winner of the larger event gets an award and so does the winner of the smaller. Sousa is an impressive player, a consistent dark horse in every event. Even in the slams he is a dark horse in the sections he is placed in. He made a run at the 2013 U.S. Open to the third round before being routed by Djokovic. This year he got to the third round of the Australian Open before being stopped by Murray. At the French he took a set off Murray in the second. Consistently in the Top 40, this guy is in the upper echelons of the journeymen. The seven-time ATP finalist hit his highest ranking of 34 this week. So what if he’s 2-5 in those finals. Benneteau is 0-14 or so in finals. Sousa improves to 1-3 in finals this year. He edged Muller 7-6[9], 6-3 after taking the first set in a tight breaker. Winning the first set gave him momentum he never lost. On form fifth seed Paire was next but this time it went three. The Portuguese went through 6-3, 2-6, 6-3. Next up was Cuevas, probably the favourite in their match, but he too fell to Sousa. He went through 6-4, 6-4. The same scoreline occurred in the next match against Pospisil. In the final against the seventh seed, Sousa scored perhaps his biggest upset. He beat Agut from a set down 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. His forehand, the key shot, was on shot all match and he finally fell to his knees after coming from 4-2 down in the second to win in over two hours. He is well in the mix for a seeding in Australia.
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SURPRISE: JOHNSON
...Johnson keeps up the form. Everything about him is a pleasant surprise. It isn’t like that surprise one gets when one misses the last step on the stairs. It’s like finding out your exam is next Monday not this, or a dollar in a pair of jeans. Steve isn’t losing form. He is keeping it up. It took Agut in a third set breaker in the semi to stop him. He just keeps going, keeps plugging away. Here in the bottom half of the top fifty hard work and consistent results are the currency. He beat Klizan 6-3, 6-4 and Lopez the second seed 6-4, 7-6[3] to make the quarters. That was a surprise. Beating the 6th seed Garcia-Lopez 7-5, 6-4 to make the semi-final was a nice breath of fresh air, too. It’s nice to have hard-working likable Johnson in and around the Top 30. He has earned it, after all.
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FRESH FACE: SOCK
...In singles Sock has made his first ever 500 level semi-final. He is 1-1 in finals this year. They were his first two and both were at 250 level. But with his run this week he rises to his highest ever ranking of 25. Sock is the future of American tennis. He is the same age as Tomic, but Tomic feels older. But then he did make the Wimbledon quarterfinals aged just 19. Sock’s run had a very stars and stripes feel to it. He beat Kudla 6-4, 6-2 to set up a second round clash with John Isner, the 6th seed and top ranked American. He won 7-6[5], 6-3. Interestingly it was Young who most challenged Sock. Yet he crumbled, too, going down 5-7, 6-4, 6-2. Sock is the best American now and definitely a solid pick to go far next year.
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DOWN: WAWRINKA
...It’s not a bad loss but momentum is critical at this time of the year. And a loss to Karlovic after leading is poor. It’s not like he can surprise you with his weapons. He can do two or three things well but apart from that he can’t hurt you. The flaws in his game are exploitable. Yet still the world number four lost 3-6, 7-6[3], 6-4. Wawrinka needs to tighten up his game. The WTF are not forgiving. I say that but both Radwanska and Kvitova were mediocre in group player. They both won just a single match and yet still made the final. Go figure.
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UPSET: JOHNSON
...Feliciano Lopez has had a torrid season in parts, highlighted by some stunning moments and great streaks of form. Look no further than the U.S. Open where he almost took Djokovic to five. He does this every year, however, so what else is new? But Johnson stepped up and beat him in his back yard. He beat a big server who gives you no rhythm and can literally be playable. Again, the theme of the ATP seems to be talent is not all. If it were the mercurial Lopez, and every French player in the top twenty, would be top five players. Johnson knocked out Feli 6-4, 7-6[3] to advance to the next round.
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Notes from the week...
1 – What do you think is the better rival -- Federer/Nadal or Rafa/Novak? I think it depends on the kind of mood you happen to be in. There is no wrong answer.
2 – Karlovic is 0-9 deciding tiebreakers. He has less than a 43 pct. win ratio in breakers this year.
3 – Astonishing that the ATP WTF is wrapped up so early. It was effectively over by Shanghai, though it is now officially over.
4 – Congratulations to Agnieszka Radwanska. She won the WTA tour finals. Which I suppose means she is the best female player in the world. But is she going to win a slam? Based on recent evidence it is unlikely.
5 – Lleyton Hewitt is the 2016 Australian Davis Cup captain. Good luck to him. He will do a fine job.
6 – Congratulations also to Melo who is the first doubles world number one not named Bryan since 2012.
7 – Djokovic has 181 weeks at number one, surpassing John McEnroe. My prediction is that he won’t pass Federer. But he could be number two all time. If he never wins the French Open that would be a shame.
8 – Have a look around this interesting website if you have not done so already: Tennis Abstract


1. Basel Final - Federer d. Nadal 6-3, 5-7, 6-3
...Federer finally slew the beast. For the first time since Indian Wells 2012, Federer has danced with the bull and won. His backhand was patchy but he had mettle and the home crowd behind him. It was enough to see him through. But Nadal showed signs that his former self is coming back. The clay swing is going to be very interesting.
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2. Valencia SF - Agut d. Johnson 4-6, 6-3, 7-6[8]
...a heartbreaker for Johnson. So close to making another final, the consistent Agut came back to beat the American. Perhaps the home crowd pulled the plucky Spaniard through in the end. Seeded 7th, Agut beat unseeded but on form Johnson to reach yet another final.
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3. Basel QF - Gasquet d. Karlovic 6-4, 6-7[2], 7-6[6]
...Karlovic pushed the 5th seed all the way despite an arm injury. He even had a match point. Gasquet was aggressive on all the big points instead of being his usual passive self. Karlovic had a great match and should have won. But he, like the rest of us, was not expecting the Frenchman to be mentally tough.
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4. Valencia Final - Sousa d. Agut 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
...will Agut regain his magic in finals? He is now 2-4 in the marquee match and 0-2 in 2015. He has lost two in the last three weeks, as well. He sits at 24 in the world but he is a good slam player. It was Sousa’s day on Sunday but Agut’s will come soon enough.
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*Paris*
=SF=
Djokovic [1] d. [7] Nadal
Federer [3] d. [2] Murray
=FINAL=
Djokovic [1] d. [3] Federer

...Djokovic should be too good for the rest of the field again, but Nadal and Gasquet could play spoiler in the top and bottom halves, respectively. Murray is the percentage pick and his clash with Goffin is interesting for Davis Cup reasons. Federer can end the year ranked world number two if he does well here.


Thank you for the year, Casey. The doubles run to the U.S. Open final was a joy. But we move on to Kristina ‘Kiki’ Mladenovic in 2016.

ANSWER: Monday the 18th of January is when the 2016 Australian Open, Grand Slam of Asia Pacific, starts.

Thanks all and visit WTA BACKSPIN please.

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