Monday, December 28, 2015

2016 ATP Predictions

Au revoir, 2015. G'day 2016!



Well, hi all. Here are my predictions for next year’s top ten. Aside from that, the whole point of this post is to be utterly whacky. Being correct has no place here. Here’s hoping your holidays are shaping up nice and fine. Anyway, let’s get stuck in.

*2016 ATP YEAR-END TOP 10 PREDICTIONS*
1. DJOKOVIC

...Honestly, there is a dearth of top ten quality players right now. The ATP has a lot of talent, but most of it is solid top fifteen level who can occasionally edge into the bottom of the elite. So these rankings should look really quite familiar.

Djokovic and Serena are a class of their own right now.



But a word of caution comes with this. A time is coming soon, very soon, when Djokovic is going to start showing brief signs of mortality once more. Perhaps he’ll just lose a set here or there to opponents you wouldn’t expect. Then maybe he starts dropping tight three setters. After that he slowly loses his ability to dominate all. Maybe right at the very end of next year we might see the first very brief glimpses. Right now he is safe. Same for Federer, at the moment.

2. FEDERER
3. WAWRINKA
4. MURRAY

...Roger has indicated that he will play on for some time yet. Currently he is the second best player in the world, so why wouldn’t he continue? He still has a shot at Wimbledon. Wawrinka hasn’t the consistency of some of the other in the top ten, but he does have the most firepower overall. Off both wings and the serve he can match anyone. It’s all just a question of him producing it with any amount of consistency. If he does that he will win big titles in the coming year. Murray is Murray. He will do well at the Masters, win some 500 level titles and then disappoint at slam level once more. He is perfectly solid and a top ten lock, but there will be no slam for him this year. Or again. The further back in the past his last slam win was, the harder it will be for him to win another.



5. NISHIKORI
6. BERDYCH

...Nishikori and Berdych will likely stay around 5-7. In the big moments I trust Kei more than Berdych. I also think they are equally as good in the Masters and 500s, though Kei will bounce back and win Tokyo next year. Between them I expect six slam quarters and two slam semi-finals. Both have a great game off the ground, but also weaknesses. You can expose Berdych’s movement a little and both of their second serves can be attacked and broken down. Here are some highlights of one of my favourite matches.



7. RAONIC
8. TSONGA
9. NADAL
10. GASQUET



...I think the big-serving, big-hitting French speakers come next. Raonic, I assume, can speak French. Both of these guys had an alright year. Tsonga has just found a bit of form and Australia is coming up. He is defending no points at his best slam. He could make a final run there. Both these guys can rely on their serve a lot of the time. I’d also expect both of them to get double digit wins during the grass swing.
Nadal will slip, but he is still Rafael Nadal. Maybe, just maybe, he has one more French Open run in him. Maybe he surprises us all and finishes number one. But I think the sands in his hourglass are dwindling. He won’t make the WTF and will only win a couple of titles. I think he will continue to struggle on grass and hard. And Gasquet. Is he top five? No. Is he a solid 7-10 player? Yes. He will make four fourth rounds at slams barring injury. He will make a few good runs at the Masters, especially the hard court ones and at Rome. He will be nine or 10 comes the end of the year.

*FOUR MORE TO PONDER*
GOFFIN, ISNER, KYRGIOS and DIMITROV

...Goffin is the defending finalist in the Davis Cup and has a prove it year facing him. I want to see progress in the slams and Masters. I also want to see at least three titles and five finals. The Belgian is too good not to achieve those things. I think he will do good things on clay and during the final hard court run before the U.S. Open.

Isner is now with Fila. Will the change in sponsor bring a change to Isner? All he needs is a little push to be a solid top ten player. He needs to be a little more multidimensional. He has a love affair with Indian Wells. I hope it continues this year. He also needs to figure out how to win matches off American soil. Why not enter some of the smaller clay events?

Kyrgios is mad, bad and totally unstoppable. He can do anything. He overplays the between the legs shot. And now he is seeded, which theoretically gives him three round to find his rhythm. I seriously would not be surprised to see a slam semi-final this year. Wimbledon and Australia are his best bets. With Tomic and Kyrgios seeded Australia has a bright next few years coming. Also, there's Kokkinakis. If you don’t like the above, like him for this:



Dimitrov is like those incredible child stars who you thought would take over the world. But then they just kind of disappear. I don’t want him to win slams. I don’t want him to beat the big guys every time. I just want to see a pulse, a sign of life. A slam quarter or two, a decent performance at a couple of Masters events and maybe a 500 title. That kind of year would be good.

QUESTION: Since you certainly know who led the ATP in aces in 2015 (hint, he's Croatian), who were second and third on the season?

Are you ready to get real whacky?

And now my slightly different grand slam outlooks...

AO: DJOKOVIC d. WAWRINKA
RG: NADAL d. TSONGA
WI: WAWRINKA d. FEDERER
US: FEDERER d. MURRAY
------------------------------------------------------
WTF: FEDERER
DC: SWITZERLAND d. FRANCE

...Switzerland take the Olympics overall, too. Federer takes the final over Murray, while Wawrinka wins the Bronze. He will beat Nadal. In my wacky picks this is the case, anyhoo.


Here are some outrageous predictions. Please enjoy.

Nadal retires after the U.S. Open
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Djokovic wins only four Masters titles. He also does not make four slam finals.
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Mahut/Herbert win a doubles title
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Federer/Hingis do not lose a set on the way to the Gold at the Olympics in the mixed. They defeat Wawrinka/Bencic in the final.
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Murray makes no slam finals and only two semi-finals
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Wawrinka wins another slam
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They move the WTF somewhere totally unexpected, perhaps in Asia
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The defending Davis Cup champion Brits crash and burn in the first round
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Pete Sampras helps a player out a little on a very limited basis. Perhaps Isner?

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Ivo Karlovic hit 1,447 aces in 63 matches. He hits more this year. 23 aces a match for Ivo in 2015, but next year he increases that to around 25.
======================================

ANSWER: John Isner and Kevin Anderson round out the top three on the aces list. Isner did 1,260 in 68 matches and Anderson hit 1,074 in 70.

Galileo

Oh, before I forget, if you're reading this someplace unusual then go visit WTA BACKSPIN, too. :)

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posted by Todd.Spiker @ 3:28 PM 

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