Wk.6- The Old Guard Look Very Old Indeed

Hey, all. Galileo here.

There are three truths about tennis that are forever truths, ingrained. They are the backbone, the constitution of tennis. Upon these strong foundations our sport is built. The first is that there shall always be one woman in any era who has the ability to dominate. Court, Navratilova, Graf and Serena are the four who have spanned forty years. In the Open era, three players have won approximately half the slams.

The second is that on clay Spain is king. They have won the French Open in the Open era fifteen times. No other country is in double digits. Sweden have won it nine times but no other country has won it more than five. We could go deeper, looking at tour events and Masters, but we know what the results will be. Argentina will do well, probably second, but Spain is unchallenged on the dirt.

And the third is that no matter where we are, there is always an American slam threat.

Those three are sacred and always true. But now, two are in bits. And when Serena retires, which will be soon, all three will be broken. Honestly, what will we do with ourselves? This week, on South American clay, Almagro, Ferrer and Nadal all failed to win. In times gone by, Nadal dominated Ferrer while he dominated Almagro. Between them they won all and sundry on clay. But now, they are nothing. And there is no successor to the Spanish crown waiting. Agut, Lopez and, well, that’s about it really. The Spanish threat has been nullified. And on clay. The life left in their current stars is dwindling rapidly. Even in the juniors there appears to be little life. The dark ages are coming up for the Spanish unless they can pull something out from nowhere.

As for America, well there is hope. Nobody realized there would be a gap after Roddick. But Fritz and Paul split two slam finals in the juniors last year. Even better, they did it in Paris and New York. Americans who can play on clay are rare indeed. Mmoh also had a great year, making quarterfinals and semi-finals. And Reilly Opelka won Wimbledon to give the Yanks a three-peat. So there is a good future for Americans if the juniors can switch easily onto the senior tour. And if this week's evidence is anything to go on, they can.

That brings me nicely onto the week’s happenings...

=RANKINGS WATCH=
Top 32 - Klizan rising 16 places to 27 has got things all shook up. Everybody is rising or falling all over the place. Chardy, Johnson and Bellucci all fall two but round out the top 32. Kohlschreiber is up 3 to 29, breaking the top 30 again. Seedings are important for the big March tournaments. Dimitrov fell but remained at 28. He should scrape into a low seed which helps the rest of the field.

Top 10 – Tsonga is at 9, Gasquet is at 10, Isner sits at 11. Raonic falls a couple places to 13. Somehow, the abysmal Cilic has risen to 12 despite doing nothing all year. Just 500 places separate 9 and 13.

Top 8 – Little change. Berdych sits at 8, but the gap between he and Kei has widened. He is a little Czech island at the moment.

Top 4 – No change. Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Wawrinka.

*WEEK 6 CHAMPIONS*
ROTTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
S: Martin Klizan def. Gael Monfils 6-7(1)/6-3/6-1
D: Mahut/Pospisil d. Petzschner/Peya
MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE (USA)
S: Kei Nishikori def. Taylor Fritz 6-4/6-4
D: Fyrstenberg/S.Gonzalez d. Johnson/Querrey
BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA
S: Dominic Thiem def. Nicolas Almagro 7-6(2)/3-6/7-6(4)
D: Cabal/Farah d. Cervantes/Lorenzi


PLAYER OF THE WEEK: DOMINIC THIEM
...If one find twenty bucks lying on the floor, one knows it is going to be a good week. And if one loses a twenty, they know it will likely be a bad one. If a football team wins its first two games of the season on shut-outs then they can make a reasonable guess that the season will go well for them. But if that team scores just one touchdown in its first two games, then trouble is surely ahead. When Thiem bageled Busta in the first round, the 5th seed must’ve thought he was in for a good week. He duly won that first match 6-0, 3-6, 6-3. Then he survived by the skin of his teeth against qualifier Elia, winning 3-6, 7-6[7], 6-3. He swept past Lajovic 6-4, 6-2. After that he edged Rafa in an epic battle 7-6[4] in the third. He followed that up with a three set win over Almagro, also 7-6[4] in the third, in the final. Thiem played with grit and determination throughout the week. The impressive thing is that he has great disguise on some of his shots. Sometimes you just don’t know where he is going to put the ball. That skill is a tremendously useful one to have, especially at ATP level. He is going to follow Rafa to Rio now where he will also be a high seed. But how will his energy levels hold up?
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RISER: KEI NISHIKORI
...A weaker draw and a top five player make for a bad combination. Kei is, regardless of ranking, a top five player. It will be interesting to see how the top ten is shaken up when Ferrer and Nadal drop and the Swiss stars call it a day. The average age is something like 29. Anyway, Querrey put in a good performance here and made the semi-finals, even taking a set off Kei. Aside from that the Japanese star was flawless, dropping just that set. Easy pickings and it means a final every year since 2011, a title every year since 2012 and also his fourth consecutive title here. Almagro, incidentally, made his 22nd final last week. He is now 12-10 and they are all on clay, obviously.
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FRESH FACE: TAYLOR FRITZ
...It is a first final for Fritz. He rose 43 places to 102, a shade outside a dream come true. He will crack the top 70 this year. Right next to him, but a place below, is Krajicek who is also facing a bright future. His mother Kathy May Fritz was a top ten player who won 7 singles titles. She made the quarters at a couple of slams and even beat Barbara Jordan in one of those singles finals. She married a tennis pro and T.H Fritz seems to be following in their footsteps. He beat Mmoh, another promising youngster, Johnson and Becker in Memphis. That’s very impressive by itself. It seems a generation of young American talent is coming through. He lost in a respectable two setter to Nishikori in the final after beating Berankis in the semi. Altogether a great week for the young rising star.
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VETERAN: GAEL MONFILS
...Last week Mathieu, this week another wily French vet. Monfils put together another strong week. This year is proving to be another strong year for the French, something of a renaissance. With a world-class doubles team, so much depth and a solid top five, they are in charge right now. Throw in strong young talent coming through and this is a nation to be feared in slams and in the Davis Cup, too. A tenth of the top 100 are French and so are a 5th of the top 50. A quarter of the top 16 is French. Not even Spain can rival those numbers. Monfils rose to 16 this week after another great run though he could not win his first 500 title.
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SURPRISE: MARTIN KLIZAN
...Klizan should be higher than this, but he and Fritz are interchangeable, really. His forehand has atomic capabilities. That is a weapon that belongs on somebody ranked far higher. Forgetting the Slovak’s consistency issues, his forehand can move planets, shake democracies and cause earthquakes. He has a forehand so big not even Monfils can get a racket on it. Explosive, unpredictable and unstoppable, he just ripped through several opponents solely on that shot and a good serve. Unseeded and faced with a difficult path, he opened up with a 6-2, 6-7[5], 6-3 win over Spanish vet Robredo. Next he dismissed Baghdatis 6-3, 6-2, before edging Agut 6-75], 7-6[6], 6-0. Agut has won two titles this year and has a 5-0 record against Klizan. But five match points saved and a bagel later and he was through. Down 6-7[3], 3-5 he saved three more match points. Then he won the breaker 9-7 before sweeping through the last set 6-2. He had made his first final since 2012 and in that final he beat Monfils for his maiden 500. He had no right to even get there, but it was an impressive week all around from the lefty.
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DOWN: RAFAEL NADAL
...For most players, a quarter-final is enough to qualify as having a passable week though it depends on the player and other factors. But Nadal making a semi-final is, for this BACKSPINNER, a disappointment. Rafa is simply too good, too much the king of clay to lose in the semi-final of a small clay court event. He lost to a one-hander on clay. That never happens. He always sweeps to these titles, perhaps losing a set on the way. It is getting embarrassing for Rafa, the more these results pile up. Joe Montana was talking about how his playing days have really impacted his quality of life in his late fifties. For Nadal, how will he be ten years after hanging up the racket? What about twenty? He looks in pain during matches these days and the end is nigh.
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UPSET: PHILIPP KOHLSCHREIBER
...The thing about Cilic is that once he gets on a roll he can actually be very tough to stop. The problem is that he is so abysmal in early rounds, it is tough for him to do so. The German was able to stop the run-away train this time. He was able to do it with despite losing the first set, too. It is refreshing to be able to talk about both Kohl and Cilic positively. The German rolled through 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 on a surface that should’ve benefited the Croat more.
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Notes from the week...
1 – Del Potro plays Kudla tomorrow. Tune in to that one.
2 – Federer has spent 601 weeks in the top 3 in total and that is a record. It is 6 weeks more than Connors at 595.
3 – Ten years ago, Agassi retired. This will be a recurring and oft mentioned theme throughout the year no doubt.
4 – The WTA and ATP had some good Valentine’s Day features. Happy Valentine's and Presidents Day everybody.
5 – Svitolina has herself a great asset - Henin. Similar to Murray and Mauresmo, Henin is hanging around and helping here and there.


1. Buenos Aires SF - Thiem d. Nadal 6-4, 4-6, 7-6[4]
...One of the best matches of 2016 happened just the other day as Thiem survived match point to see off Rafa. The resilience and controlled aggression were impressive from the Austrian. He never let himself become intimidated by Rafa. The points were a great mix of slices, net rushes and even drop shots. Even the baseline exchanges were gripping. Thiem is shaping up to be like Muster but with more flair. This was a very high quality match and more evidence that the youngest man in the top 20 knows his stuff.

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2. Rotterdam Final - Klizan d. Monfils 6-7[1], 6-3, 6-1
...Commendable by Monfils to hang with Klizan. He didn’t go away and tried to hang tough but he struggled to find a way to combat the firepower of that forehand. Klizan reacted well after losing the first set breaker so badly but that forehand blitzed Monfils’ tough defence. Nothing La Monf could do against the lefty's enormous forehand.
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3. Memphis SF - Fritz d. Berankis 2-6, 6-3, 6-4
...Two players cited as stars of the future clashed. The diminutive Berankis has shown glimpses but he will now be looked upon as what could have been. He still has time but more and more payers like Fritz are looking the real deal. T.H was great here, showing resilience and an ability to win a tight three setter.
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4. Buenos Aires Final - Thiem d. Almagro 7-6[2], 3-6, 7-6[4]
...To beat Nadal in an epic, winning it in a third set breaker, and then come out and outlast Almags is a huge achievement. To do it on clay, is unbelievable, really. Thiem even recovered from 0-2 in the third set. Almags won his first match against Ferru in 16 goes. Nobody beats Almagro 16 times in a row.
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*DELRAY BEACH*
=SF=
Anderson [1] d. [WC] Del Potro
Tomic [2] d. [4] Dimitrov
=FINAL=
Tomic [2] d. [1] Anderson

...A kind draw and nostalgia make Delpo the pick here. He is better than an out of form, but still defending champion Karlovic. But Anderson is too match-fit for the Argentine comeback kid. It's funny - going match-up by match-up I picked Tomic but I would not have thought to pick him from the beginning. Perhaps a risky pick but the draw is a good one for him. He or Dimi will win this.

*RIO*
=SF=
Nadal [1] d. [3] Tsonga
Ferrer [2] d. [7] Fognini
=FINAL=
Nishikori [1] d. [7] Fognini

...At this 500, Nadal is still the pick. Perhaps BACKSPIN is still acclimating to the fact he no longer has it. But there aren’t many threats here. Fognini is due a crazy result, so why not here? Ferrer is solid but Thiem will be exhausted. How much is left in his tank?

*MARSEILLE*
=SF=
Wawrinka [1] d. [7] Monfils
Berdych [2] d. [3] Gasquet
=FINAL=
Wawrinka [1] d. [2] Berdych

...Cilic is nowhere and Paire is unreliable. Monfils is on form, but Wawrinka has something to prove. He has to show he can rebound. Berdych owns Gasquet, who has home-court advantage, but Wawrinka owns Berdych. Simple, really.

We are in Dubai to watch our favourite Pastry this week. She opens with Tsurenko. 6th seed Pliskova lurks after that and 2nd seeded Muguruza is also hanging around. It’s not the easiest draw but it is manageable. Pliskova should be a good test of her abilities. In the doubles, the Frenchies are seeded second. The real good news is that the top seeds are Mattek and Shvedova. The world number ones are absent. Atawo/Spears, a good pair, are up first. Expect a good result from them in the doubles.


Thanks all and visit WTA BACKSPIN please.

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