Wimbledon Preview: Predicting the Unpredictable

Hey, all. Galileo here.

Now before we get to the Wimbledon predictions post, we have some housekeeping to do. This BACKSPINNER blew the Week 25 predictions, but not too much. It’s another heart-breaking loss for Gilles Muller in Nottingham, losing to Pablo Cuevas 3-6, 7-6[3], 6-4. Cuevas lost his first grass final to Steve Johnson 6-7[5], 5-7. It is also his third final this year, though it is his first off clay. He has now won five of his seven finals. Don’t forget, either, that he once won the French Open doubles. He won it with Luis Horna. Of course, he very nearly didn’t make it; he beat Bagman 6-4, 6-4, 7-6[8]. Kevin Anderson was another who had a good tournament, edging past Ivan Dodig and Fernando Verdasco to the quarters. Has he ground his way into form? Muller is ranked 41 and is so close to a seed at the U.S. Open, but where has he landed in the Wimbledon draw?

After losing in Vienna to David Ferrer last year, Johnson has won his maiden title. He is back in the top forty and will win another title this year, or so says this BACKSPINNER. Sam Querrey lost to Marcus Baghdatis 1-6, 7-6[8], 6-4. He should be able to do better than that. But Joao Sousa [3rd seed] was even worse. Dudi Sela beat him in straight sets. He is in for an unhappy Wimbledon.

We all know why we’re here. We’re here in our whites for strawberries and for big serves. If there’s drama and tears along the way, well then all the better. We all remember the chaotic day at Wimbledon a couple of years ago where everybody withdrew and there were thousands of upsets. This is our third slam of the year and Djokovic’s Grand Slam dream is on. So let’s dive straight into it.

*Suicide Picks*
MS 1st Rd: Mahut d. Klein
==
WS 1st Rd: Makarova d. Larsson

No mixed, but we have the men’s and women’s doubles. Herbert/Mahut [1] d. [6] Bopanna/Mergea. The top seeds will have a point to prove. Plus Mahut loves Wimbledon and they just won in Eastbourne. The 6th seeds are in a fairly easy section with the exception of Matkowski/Paes. Rojer/Tecau [4] d. [12] Huey/Mirnyi. Pospisil/Sock [8] have been on form as of late and after surviving a rut. They will make another run here, defeating [3] Murray/Soares. Stepanek/Zimonjic [14] will be this year’s surprise package. There is always one. They will defeat Dodig/Melo [5] in the quarters and then beat Murray/Soares with experience. I like the Frenchies to win in the final, however. Will the five set format assist our top seeds?

In the ladies' doubles, Garcia/Mladenovic will make another run but lose in the final to Mirza/Hingis. Those two have got to find their mojos at some point. Right?

Now, finally on to the singles...

=DJOKOVIC QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. NOVAK DJOKOVIC SRB
...Here we go again. Djokovic will have to contend with the home crowd this tournament. He has James Ward and then Kyle Edmund in his first two matches. Neither of those will take two sets off him, and you’d not even expect him to lose a set. He will be a tad ‘rusty’ but he should be fine. Querrey in the third round, or possibly Rosol, will test him. Either of those players will push him to a breaker, maybe two. Herbert and Mahut could play each other in this section, but Djokovic will not be troubled by either. Nole will be fine until the fourth round but lurking in the quarters, one of his weakest slam rounds, is potentially Raonic. So this won’t scare him but it isn’t going to be easy for the two-time defending champ. His return once more has to be the difference maker. Return well and he is going to do very well. In his only match at Boodles, Djokovic lost in two to Goffin.
2. MILOS RAONIC CAN
...There is one big reason the Canadian is the number two in these power rankings.


Now imagine that on grass, not a slower hard court. The Canuck has a serve that you could use in a war. That thing is a cannon. Oh, you got a racket on it. Well, the forehand will mop up. And the second serve offers no relief. Plus the game is so simple, it isn’t a Santoro type game, or even a Coria-esque one. He never comes to net except to put balls away and the ground strokes are pretty smooth. Sure, he can’t rally but he doesn’t have to. Perhaps you can exploit movement but on this surface even that won’t work for long periods of time. Sock and Gulbis are both dangerous, but not for Raonic. His doubles partner will know his game well but how much of a difference will it make? Goffin in the fourth round is on the wrong surface to cause much trouble. No, this section is looking like a Djokovic and Raonic clash is inevitable.
3. PHILIPP KOHLSCHREIBER GER
...He and Ferrer are set to meet in the third round. Sure, he should beat a Ferrer on the way out but can he beat both the 1st and 6th seed? It is unlikely to happen. But he is the perfect spoiler. Look out for the chip and charge from the German, too.
DARK HORSE: KEVIN ANDERSON RSA
...He can play on this surface and was a whisker from defeating Novak last year. Can he do the same here? If he can continue his form from the last week, where he won two matches, he could cause trouble. He may well beat Goffin in the third round and he could make life difficult for Raonic in round four.
WILDCARD: ERNESTS GULBIS LAT
...By now this should need an explanation. Well here it is. Don’t forget his very frustrating propensity to implode, either.
EARLY EXIT: DAVID FERRER ESP
...Ferru is very much on the way out and will struggle to even make the fourth round. The Spaniard seems to just be hanging on until the Olympics. Surely this is the veteran’s final Wimbledon.
MATCH NOT TO MISS: ROSOL vs. QUERREY
...This will be an outer court gem, possibly on Court One if they aren’t feeling generous to us poorer folk. But this match will be a big-serving ‘muscly’ match. The winner gets the chance to most likely have a pop at Djokovic. Well worth a peek.
=In the End...=
4th: DJOKOVIC D. KOHLSCHREIBER
4th: RAONIC D. ANDERSON
QF: DJOKOVIC D. RAONIC

=FEDERER QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. ROGER FEDERER SUI
...Shocking, I know, putting a seven time champion here. The Fed is the greatest grass player we will ever see. Nobody’s game will ever be more suited to grass. Rog opens with Pella before facing Berankis and then probably Dolgopolov. All of those will be fine. Monfils and Simon have only ever had fleeting moments of brilliance here. Dimitrov is here, too, but is he up to much these days? Cilic and Nishikori are also here but, really, does either of those players faze Federer on this surface? This will be a procession to the semi-finals, possibly delayed a tad by Kei if he can get there. Federer said his back had won him 88 titles when asked about his health. He will be just fine. Watch out for the SABR and that slice serve, too.
2. KEI NISHIKORI JPN
...By default more than anything Kei finds himself second in our power rankings. There is nobody else here, really. Sure, Cilic could make a run. But he is not a top ten player in form, though he does have a good previous history here. That fourth round match between Kei and Cilic will be big if it comes to pass. Groth and Benneteau are the immediate threats. Recent finalist Cuevas will lose to Muller over five and then Kei will have his first big test. Alex Kuznetsov landed in a bad place but he has had a terrific year.
3. GILLES MULLER LUX
...Cilic is a big seed, yes, but would you trust him? Muller will ride his form and serve all the way to at least the fourth round. He could even make the quarters. He is a tricky customer on this surface and has been to a slam quarter before. It may have been some 30 slams previous but he is still more solid than Cilic.
DARK HORSE: MARIN CILIC CRO
...Would you be surprised if he made the semi-finals? No, me either. What about if he crashed out to Baker in the first round? No, I would not be surprised, either. He and Muller are really interchangeable here but Cilic has been so poor for so long that it is easy to forget he won a slam once.
WILDCARD: IVO KARLOVIC CRO
...Imagine this on grass.


That is his entire game but it is just so effective. He can serve his way past anybody and anyone. He and Cilic will face off in the third round. That match will exceed a combined total of 50 aces.
EARLY EXIT: GILLES SIMON FRA
...That loss to Novak at the beginning of the year seems to have broken the Frenchman. He is in the wrong place to make any kind of a run at Wimbledon. Sure, he made a quarter recently but not this year.
MATCH NOT TO MISS: GIRALDO vs. MULLER
...If you want physicality and a clash of styles this is it. Also you will get some good grass court tennis from Muller. This will be on a back court somewhere on the grounds. It will be worth going to see.
=In the End...=
4th: FEDERER D. JOHNSON
4th: MULLER D. KARLOVIC
QF: FEDERER D. MULLER

=WARINKA QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. STAN WAWRINKA SUI
...Now this quarter is where it gets a little more interesting. Here in the bottom half of the draw Thiem is seeded to make the quarters for the first time ever at slam level. Wawrinka has to deal with Del Potro, Pouille and Agut before he can focus on the Austrian. He also opens with talented youngster Fritz. The Swiss star goes in to Wimbledon on alright form but can he finally make a semi-final slam at the one slam at which he is yet to do so? His slice backhand and big serve are evidence he has the tools. With a quarterfinal here last year, he is here to prove he can go further.
2. DOMINIC THIEM AUT
...There are only a few indications he can perform on this surface, but all those signs have come this year. He is ready to do what Dimitrov never did. Become a solid top ten player. His kick serve is less effective here and he drew Mayer in the first round, but he should still be able to get past the Halle champion. Sousa will be no threat here, but Vesely could be. Berdych lurks in the fourth round if he can get past Zverev. Should he get past Berdych or the conqueror of the Berd, he will face a tricky test in the form of Wawrinka. So not easy then.
3. TOMAS BERDYCH CZE
...Due respect should be given to a former finalist. Tomas has been shown up by compatriot Kvitova and shut out by the top four, but he is still more than capable of getting past Thiem and Wawrinka. With his serve and forehand anything is possible.
DARK HORSE: ALEX ZVEREV GER
...Seeded 24th here, the German can make real inroads into the draw. Berdych is not unbeatable, though it will be difficult to do it over five sets. The German lost at Boodles to Kyrgios in straight sets but he will not lose early. He does need to use the slice a tad more on this surface but when he uses it it is very effective.
WILDCARD: BERNARD TOMIC AUS
...A run at Queens hints at a rise in form. Can the troubled rising star make good on those hints? He has a soft enough section that another quarter-final run is not out of the question, though how he would defeat Wawrinka remains beyond this BACKSPINNER.
EARLY EXIT: JOAO SOUSA POR
...This is simply not his surface. Expect Tursunov or Saville to see him off. He could also be our first seed to lose in the bottom half, if not in the entire draw. He will be fine once the tour returns to hard court. He will win more matches at the next slam.
MATCH NOT TO MISS: TOMIC vs. VERDASCO
...Dodig versus Berdych would be plenty exciting, too, but this match promises fireworks and who knows what. It could go five or it could be a blowout. But the clash of styles makes this a very exciting prospect.
=In the End...=
4th: THIEM D. BERDYCH
4th: WAWRINKA D. TOMIC
QF: WAWRINKA D. THIEM

=MURRAY QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. ANDY MURRAY GBR
...After all those soft routes through slams, Murray finally has a horror. Kyrgios, Lopez, Brown and Fognini are all in his section. He opens with Broady which takes away his home court advantage. Then he plays Lu and Paire to get through to the fourth round. And there Kyrgios will be waiting for him. After that is Gasquet, followed by Tsonga. No, he won’t be making the final. Sure Lendl is back and he is better than all those players, but together? Luckily the rain is not a factor for Murray. He will have to be tactically astute as well as being physically prepared.
2. NICK KYRGIOS AUS
...Here it is. This is the Aussie’s chance to go big at Wimbledon. This is his chance to make that run, the one we will all look back on. Stepanek and Brown are his likely first two opponents. Both those matches will be electric. And then he gets Lopez. It’s a horrible draw, but he can do it. He has the seeding protection and the gumption. He will be pumped up when he gets to Murray. He knows the Scot’s game well, too. Can he finally take out the world number two? If he does he will have Gasquet or Tsonga in the quarters.
3. RICHARD GASQUET FRA
...Yep. He has been better than Tsonga this year, but they are interchangeable here. One of them will meet Murray in the quarters. Neither have historically caused the Scot a lot of trouble. Indeed, on this surface neither have tested him much. Gasquet opens with Bedene. Next is probably Burgos and then Troicki. The fourth round is practically guaranteed. Tsonga has Cervantes, Monaco and Isner or Baghdatis. That is also pretty safe. That fourth round will be a fantastic match.
DARK HORSE: FELICIANO LOPEZ ESP
...Isner has the serve to do it but Lopez has been to more than just a couple of quarterfinals here. He knows how to do it. And he can turn it on seemingly at will. Can he do it this year, too?
WILDCARD: BENOIT PAIRE FRA
...Who really knows with the mad Frenchman? If he can get to Murray he should be able to really worry the Scot. Whether or not he can get there is another story. He should be able to negate Skugor and Millman. Murray has not imploded in a while. Could that implosion be imminent?
EARLY EXIT: ANDY MURRAY GBR
...Seeded 2nd, the Scot should make another Wimbledon final. It would be his third. But this BACKSPINNER doubts it’ll happen. Or maybe I am just so sick of seeing him and Djokovic playing the same match over and over on different surfaces I am picking him to lose. Their matches are eerily similar to the film Groundhog Day.
MATCH NOT TO MISS: KYRGIOS vs. STEPANEK
...Isner playing Baghdatis will be good and Lajovic versus Brown is a gem. Lopez and Ram going at it will also be a great watch, but for the highlight reel Kyrgios and Stepanek can’t be beat. Serve and volley will be the currency in this one.
=In the End...=
4th: GASQUET D. TSONGA
4th: KYRGIOS D. MURRAY
QF: KYRGIOS D. GASQUET



=SEMIFINALS=
#1 DJOKOVIC D. #3 FEDERER
#4 WAWRINKA D. #15 KYRGIOS

=FINAL=
#4 WAWRINKA D. #1 DJOKOVIC

...Here is where the wheels come unstuck. Forced to five by Federer, Djokovic is then beaten by Wawrinka in an upset for the ages. Wawrinka always wins a slam only if he makes the semi-final at the previous one. He also make the fourth round or quarter the year before. And nobody ever calls it. Plus, he has won in Australia and France the past two years. Wimbledon is next in the order. And has he ever lost in a slam final? I thought not.


*WOMEN*
=ROUND OF 16 PREDICTIONS=
#1 Williams d. #13 Kuznetsova
#11 Bacsinszky d. #6 Vinci
#3 Radwanska d. Bouchard
#10 Kvitova d. Pironkova
#9 Keys d. #5 Halep
#4 Kerber d. #14 Ka. Pliskova
#8 V. Williams d. #12 Suarez-Navarro
#2 Muguruza d. Lisicki

...Williams will either blow up early or win it all. She has almost reached boiling point after being denied in three straight slam semifinal/finals. This quarter is no murderers’ row, though Watson and Williams may well have a rematch in the third round. Sveta should see off Wozniacki. Peng is also here but this should be fairly straightforward for the Russian and the American. A-Pavs and Vandeweghe lurk but the Swiss and Italian are too good on this surface. Bacs will ride her French form and defend her quarterfinal points from last year. Seeded 16th ,Jo Konta will finally get her maiden Wimbledon win here though Puig will be tricky. Puig, Cibulkova and Konta all made the semi-finals in Eastbourne. But Bouchard will defeat Konta, despite her SF in Eastbourne, and the winner of Gavrilova and Cibulkova [who has reached a quarter here], before proceeding to roll to the fourth round. And Aga is at Wimbledon. Enough said. Garcia on another surface [read: clay] could cause the upset. Kvitova has to deal with Makarova and Strycova early. Paszek and Pironkova lurk near injury-hit Bencic. So our big seeds in this quarter will be on upset watch. But this is Kvitova and it has been cool in England of late. That will help the Czech. If Pironkova can make a run in France, she can do it here. But this BACKSPINNER once declared Petra would win five Wimbledon’s so she gets the nod.

With her only titles coming on grass [2-2 in all finals] and a quarterfinal last year, Keys has the game and confidence to go on a run. Like Konta [18], Keys is at her highest ever ranking at number ten, though she is seeded 9th. Schiavone lurks near Halep but she is a spent force. Errani is near Keys but she has never played well on this surface. Cornet and Flipkens could both play spoiler but Keys seems to have inherited Davenport’s grass magic. Kerber has to stop the rot somewhere and here at Wimbledon she’ll have a run. She opens with Robson, but she’ll win that and get past Brengle. Ivanovic is here, but who cares? If Pliskova gets past Wickmayer she’ll be fine. Venus has made 11 Wimbledon quarters and won eight. She has never lost in a semi-final. Neither Kasatkina nor Vekic will trouble the woman who was first seeded here in 1998. She will return to the quarters for the first time in some five years. Suarez-Navarro is also here and will be fine in getting to the fourth. Jankovic will do nothing. Lisicki landed in a great section. She and Stosur will hit about 40 aces combined in a tight three set match but expect the German to make the fourth round.

=QUARTERFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#1 Williams d. #11 Bacsinszky
#10 Kvitova d. #3 Radwanska
#9 Keys d. #4 Kerber
#2 Muguruza d. #8 Venus

...Serena will out-muscle the Swiss on this surface. This is the most straightforward quarterfinal. Kvitova has won the only match on grass between these two and leads the head to head 6-4. Her serve will prove the difference in this match between grass specialists. Kerber is ripe for the upset here. It’s generous to think she’ll even reach the quarters. Keys rides her forehand all the way into the quarters. Muguruza makes another slam semi-final here. With the top five women in the world contending for the top ranking the Spaniard is under pressure to match her final result from last year. She will have too much for our resident elder stateswoman.

=SEMIFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#10 Kvitova d. #1 Williams
#2 Muguruza d. #9 Keys

...Kvitova causes a big upset here and beats Williams. If Petra wins a couple she’ll just roll. And Muguruza is the safe pick here. She is starting to make a run at that world number one ranking. She will be too consistent and experienced for Keys.

=FINAL PREDICTION=
#10 Kvitova d. #2 Muguruza

...It won’t be like that Bouchard final, but it will be Kvitova’s day. 2-0 in Wimbledon finals, the Czech has never even dropped a set in one. If she gets there she’ll win in straights this year.

Right, thanks all. Go to WTA BACKSPIN -- they’ve just got the BBQ going! Ask for the ribs!

I'll be seeing you all soon and far too frequently for your liking.

Galileo.

As for Kiki, well, she beat Wickmayer and Bacsinszky in straight sets in Eastbourne. Then she edged Friedsam in two before running into Puig. The qualifier won 7-6[6], 4-6, 6-3. She didn’t enter the doubles but the run is still encouraging. She and Garcia are seeded 31 and 30, respectively. Like in Paris, if she wins two matches she gets Williams. She has to defeat Watson though.

In the doubles, Garcia and Mladenovic are seeded second. They open with qualifiers Schuurs/Voracova. The seeds in their section are Garrigues/Santonja. They should be just fine.

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