Monday, August 01, 2016

Wk.30- Ghosts of the Past


Hey, all. Galileo here.

Federer, for the first time, is facing a major injury crisis. He hurt himself while giving the twins a bath. Is it game over for the star, is it the end for Roger Federer? If he came back and won a major would any of us be surprised? No, probably not.



It says something that our community is discussing Federer and not Djokovic's latest triumph. So beloved, so great a player is Roger that even when he is in dire straights he is still talked about. But with both him and Rafa out, the tennis landscape looks barren and desolate. Who will generate our major storylines outside of the top two? We can see clearly the flaws of the rest. Kei and Wawrinka struggle to break the glass ceiling. Del Potro is still a huge question mark.

If Roger does come back and is fit he could make a serious run at number one if several factors go his way. With so few points to defend next year he could make a speedy comeback. He does face the prospect of falling out of the top ten for the first time in about 14 years, but every run must eventually come to and end. The injury is not like Mary Pierce's, either. Or even like Clijsters' myriad of health problems. Neither is this a Marcelos Rios deal. No, if Roger says he will be back then he will be. He could also opt to become a doubles specialist if singles is too much. He and a big lefty, like a Verdasco type, could probably do quite well.

This week we have had some actual play. The ghosts of Harrison and Dimitrov resurfaced. Who remembers when they were supposed to be the next big thing? Nishikori was supposed to dominate and win multiple slams. Our community sure is bad at calling it, eh?

=RANKINGS WATCH=
Top 32 - Dimitrov up six to 34. Is he merely having a little rise or has he genuinely turned things around? Paire falls four but still clings onto the 32nd spot.
Top 10 – Tsonga and Thiem swap, with the Frenchman now ahead by 130 points. Monfils moves up three to 11th.
Top 8 – Little change. Kei still barely leads Raonic. Kei moves clear of Raonic and will soon take 5th off Nadal.
Top 4 – Novak, Andy, Roger and Wawrinka are the new top four. There is still a massive gap between 1 and 2 and 3 and 4.

*WEEK 30 CHAMPIONS*
MONTREAL, QUEBEC CAN (Hard)
S: Novak Djokovic def. Kei Nishikori 6-3/7-5
D: Dodig/Melo d. J.Murray/Soares


PLAYER OF THE WEEK: NOVAK DJOKOVIC
...Who else? If you are sitting there thinking this will be the same you are right. Djokovic has always dominated the hardcourt Masters. But the reports coming through that he could threaten Federer's greatness are unfounded. It's as much about the aura, about the feel, more than anything else. Henin had it. Murray does not. Federer has it, but Kvitova does not. And Nadal has it, but Djokovic doesn't. It is hard to quantify, but there has to be a little bit of magic nobody else has. People will talk about the forehands of Nadal and Federer, of Laver's volleys and Sampras' serve but Djokovic's return is uninspiring. Brilliant and technically flawless but dull, mechanical and unwatchable. His highlight reels don't make you smile. Federer's do. Agassi managed to make his return famous and stylish. Why can't Djokovic? This week he saw off Muller 7-5, 7-6[3]. Stepanek went down 2 and 4 and Berdych collapsed to a 7-6[6]. 6-4 loss. Again. He dismissed Monfils 3 and 2 in the semi before coasting to yet another routine win over Nishikori. The problem is, like Serena's WTA, the opposition just isn't there. [Ed.Note: Hmmm, yet Serena has won just one of the last four slams, while Djokovic has four of five, and five of seven. Hmmm.] Murray doesn't count. He faces a tough field and still won easily. At least when Roger and Nadal did that they hit nice shots.


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RISER: STAN WAWRINKA
...Well, silver linings come with clouds. Vavsy mentally imploded in a 7-6[6], 6-1 loss in the semi-final. Up 6-3, he double faulted while serving for the set. Now, as a two-time slam champ he should be more mentally prepared and he also knows how Kei plays. So, yes, he should have done better, but he makes the semi-finals of a Masters for only the eighth time in his career. On the way he edged Youzhny in two breakers and also saw off Sock 7-6[3]. 6-2. He blew Anderson away 6-1, 6-3 to record a superb result here in Toronto. Sure, it took him a while to find his form but he can still do the U.S. and Olympic double. With three titles under his belt already a fourth is surely on the way. And we're now at the point where he has confidence and the knowledge he can do it. Watch out for Stan in the next 12 weeks, what's left of the 2016 season.
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FRESH FACE: GRIGOR DIMITROV
...It's nice to see the precocious talent back in form. It may be brief, but even a brief reappearance is worth somthing, no? The one-hander flashed on our biggest stage again, the serve snarled and spat once more. We really saw Dimitrov again, saw him properly. He made only his sixth quarterfinal at this level, but there will be more. This BACKSPINNER believes another slam semi-final is in the works for the Bulgarian. It will come eventually. Of course, in true Dimitrov style, he almost bombed out. He escaped Sugita 5-7, 7-6[5], 6-4. Down 4-0 in the first and 2-5 in the tiebreaker in the second, Dimi showed the grit that has long been missing from his game. He came back twice before holding for a two and a half hour victory. Straight sets victories over Shapovalov, conqueror of Kyrgios, and an in-form Karlovic followed. He even took a set off Nishikori but ran out of steam in a 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 loss. He strung together three matches in a row of good tennis combined with guts. Is it the start of something or a sad reminder of what could have been? [Ed.Note: I'm giving my "unofficial nod" to Denis Shapovalov for this award this week. :) ]
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VETERAN: KEI NISHIKORI
...Another rare thing this - two correct ATP BACKSPIN calls in two weeks! Kei is the typical Ferrer type journeyman. Goffin will follow in his footsteps. A very good career with decent slam success and plenty of joy at Masters level, but unable to beat the big guys. Kei has made plenty of finals this year but he needs to win the big ones, too. Two Masters finals in one year is impressive, but allow statistics to once more reveal the truth. He is 1-9 against Nadal, 2-10 against Djokovic, 1-6 against Murray and 2-4 against Roger. He cannot beat the top guys. Sure, this week was nice for him and he had another impressive run, but it always ends the same way. He cannot break that glass ceiling and he has to do it one day. He does not have time on his side. He cannot just wait for the bigger guys to run out of steam, he has to take charge and do it now. It was still a very good week. Maybe one day he can routinely have great weeks.
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SURPRISE: RYAN HARRISON
...Up 27 places to 117, is it too late for Ryan? He is only 24. He was 43 in the world once and that is attainable again if he can use this momentum. In qualifying, he defeated Zverev 5-7, 6-3, 6-3. No, it wasn't the younger Zverev but it was still a massive scalp. It was a victory which are few and far between for Harrison these days. In the main draw, he dismissed Russian Kuznetsov 6-1, 6-3 and then upset Isner 7-6[3], 6-7[4] 6-4. In the next round he gave Berdych all he could take, with the Czech winning 6-4, 6-7[3], 6-4 and just barely escaping the upset. After a couple of wins in Washington and now this, things are finally looking up for Harrison. He is also sticking with matches and not just going away meekly at the first sign of defeat. Throw in a wiser approach to the world and there just might be something here. Oh, and watch this:


Of course, this waxing lyrical now practically ensures he goes out and loses badly next week. Ah, well.
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DOWN: MARIN CILIC
...Back to regular service, sadly. Sure, during four tournaments a year he is a top ten player. The rest of the year he is a paper tiger. A really flimsy tissue paper tiger. Used tissue paper even. The eighth seed lost to Karlovic 6-4, 7-6[3]. A man with that big a serve lost a breaker 7-3 and also let himself get broken? It's preposterous. Cilic is too good to let this happen. He couldn't even take it to three. Cilic should be made to give his slam to Ferrer. He deserves it more. Or Tsonga. How the disappointing Croat ever won a slam is shocking. [Ed.Note: hmmm, maybe it was because he played Nishikori in the U.S. Open final? ;) ]
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UPSET: GAEL MONFILS
...Not once but twice did La Monf! cause the upset. And even when Novak blew him away he still managed to hit the shot of the match. And what a shot of the match. Honestly this BACKSPINNER would rather watch Monfils lose 6-0, 6-0, 6-0 than watch one of those miserable Djokovic/Murray finals. Here is that shot of the week.


Monfils had a hard draw but he dismissed Sousa and Pospisil easily. He also caused two kinds of upsets. In his three set win over Goffin he ground out a very tough win, taking it 6-4 in the third. He was not smooth, but he knew how to win. But against Raonic he was smooth and controlled. He knew exactly what to do and did it. He managed, somehow, to be everywhere. Raonic never knew where to put the ball. Maybe Monfils is finally maturing.
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Notes from the week...
1 - Kokkinakis returns in Rio. It will be his first match in ten months.
2 – Serena is just five weeks from taking away Graf's consecutive number one weeks record. Still think this era is strong, Todd? [Ed.Note: Yep, in the necessary pockets, and deeper down the rankings. Remember, Graf had 186 consecutive weeks at #1, too... so a long streak at #1 for Serena isn't exactly a definitive tip in favor of Graf's era.]
3 – Can Murray begin to make moves on the number one ranking?
4 – Gilles Simon is world number 31 and will be seeded in Rio.
5 – Expect a slew of retirements post-Olympics. Verdasco, anyone? Maybe even Nadal. The Williamses? [Ed.Note: Venus has made it pretty clear she's not going anywhere, but as for Serena... well, we shall see at the end of this year, I guess.]


1. Rogers Cup QF - Monfils d. Raonic 6-4, 6-4
...You may not see a better, more cleverly played match all year. Raonic didn't play badly. He was just outdone by the sheer talent of Monfils. From the guy who bought you this:


Comes this and on a big point, too:

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2. Rogers Cup QF - Djokovic d. Berdych 7-6[6], 6-4
...up 5-2 in the first this match should have been simple. But it was very up and down. Berdych has a golden chance to finally take a set off one of these guys, up 6-3 in the breaker. But when he let Djoker win five points in a row the match was done. Looks like Berdych has finally run out of time to beat one of the big four. Thirteen losses to Djokovic in a row now.
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3. Rogers Cup QF - Nishikori d. Dimitrov 6-3, 3-6, 6-2
...Kei has a way of winning, a way of triumphing where one questions how on earth it happened. Similar to Halep, he can be outplayed in a match but win in straights. Halep has won matches in an hour and not blown her opponent off the court at all. They both really do leave us wondering how they do it. In the semi, Kei should've lost the first set but the scoreline never tells you that. This match was won mentally; how can Dimi out-determine Kei?
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4. Rogers Cup R3 - Anderson d. Tomic 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.
...classic clash of styles saw Anderson's comeback continue with aplomb. Tomic achieved his seeding, but this was a match he should have won. With the win the South African moved up six to 28th in the world.
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*ATLANTA OPEN*
=SF=
Isner [1] d. [3] Anderson
Kyrgios [2] d. [4] Dolgopolov
=FINAL=
Isner [1] d. [2] Kyrgios

...Since 2003, Americans have won this event 11 times. We have had five all-American finals. Isner lost two finals in a row from '10-11, but has won three in a row coming in. This event is his baby. Kyrgios is gunning to become only the second Aussie winner after Rafter. Big servers abound here, but Isner is playing on American soil.


Seeded 2nd in Montreal, Garcia and Mladenovic edged Gronefeld/Peschke 4-6, 7-5, 10-4. They got out of jail, but lost to Halep and Nicelescu 6-4, 3-6, 10-8 in the quarters. But the top seeds crashed out in the quarters, too, and they failed to get a set vs. McHale/Muhammad. Mladenovic sits comfortably at four. A push for the top ranking is not out of the picture for our Frenchies. But in the singles she languishes at 38. Qualifier Kudryavtseva defeated Kiki 7-6[5]. 1-6. 6-3. It's a poor loss to a player she should never lose to.

Thanks all and visit WTA BACKSPIN please.

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posted by Todd.Spiker @ 11:50 PM 

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