Roland Garros Predictions: Rafa’s Procession

Hi All. Galileo here.

Welcome to the men’s preview of Roland Garros. We already have some news. Marin Cilic had nobody, that’s right-zero, people turn up to his press conference. The other piece of news is the forecast. You can expect some warm rain throughout the first week of competition. Plus, we have the scariest quarter of women’s tennis ever to stumble through.

In other recent news, Petra Kvitova’s attacker has been caught.

=LADIES DOUBLES=
As of this writing, the draw hasn't been released yet but you should watch out for the following four pairs in particular:

Babos/Mladenovic [1]- They’re top seeds and they will also have the home crowd behind them. Mladenovic has won this title before don’t forget.
Safarova/Kuznetsova – The defending champion (Lucie) comes in unseeded. Her Russian partner has been to a final here before and made the semi-finals in 2016. They could land anywhere and that will mean fun and possibly an upset or two along the way.
Klepac/Martinez-Sanchez [3]- The Spanish lady is a fantastic doubles player and her best surface is on clay. Klepac isn’t quite as good but they could definitely make a run.
Chan/Mattek-Sands [4]- BMS is the defending champion and she could complete her comeback here with the defense of her title. Chan is something of a rising star in the doubles world. Under the guidance of BMS she should keep improving.

=MEN'S DOUBLES=
Marach/Pavic [1] – They just won in Geneva. Mate Pavis is, at 24, the best player in the world in doubles. Oliver Marach is a late bloomer. They have made two finals in the last three slams. Plus they’re 4-2 in finals this year.
Herbert/Mahut [6] – Recent results don’t matter to French players. Flair, home-court advantage and an incredible amount of talent will mean either a deep run or crashing out in embarrassing fashion in the first round
Lopez/Lopez [12] – Their last two titles were at Roland Garros in 2016 and in Barcelona this year. Feli has a 4-11 record in finals, dating back to the 2001 Majorca Open, but he’ll be fun to watch and this doubles team is so dangerous.
Mike Bryan/Sam Querrey [16]- Yes, you read that right. The partnership, which has been going strong since the 1999 Australian Open, has been disrupted due to injury.

=NADAL QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. RAFA NADAL ESP...In this draw he fears Novak Djokovic, Fabio Fognini and Alex Zverev, That’s it. And none of them are near him. He is going to whip Simon Bolelli and Richard Gasquet on his way to the fourth round. On paper Jack Sock could possibly force a breaker or maybe take a set, but the American has been M.I.A. Frankly it’s pretty difficult to see him losing any more than about five games in any of his matches, let alone a set.
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2. RICHARD GASQUET FRA...The Frenchman has the clay court nous and can ride the home crowd to a semi-final. He has the slam experience and the soft draw to do it. If Nadal knees go or he has some other injury then Gasquet is in place. Otherwise his slam is going to end in round three.
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3. KEVIN ANDERSON RSA...The South African is also here and he isn’t totally useless on clay. And with such a weak draw a quarterfinal probably beckons.
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DARK HORSE: DIEGO SCHWARTZMAN ARG...Another pocket sized South American dirtballer who just gets how to play on clay, the diminutive Argentine has a great seed and a manageable draw. He won a 500 level clay tournament in Rio this February. He didn’t even drop a set either. He is very dangerous. He is also, if you wanted to know, the best Jewish player in the world right now.
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WILD HORSE: PHILIPP KOHLSCHREIBER GER...Who knows with the German? He is so talented and he upset Novak Djokovic in Paris back in 2009. He could be the most underrated player of the last twenty years and he has a workable draw here.
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DONKEY: JACK SOCK USA...The American is big on talent and small on delivery of said talent. He fares better on US hardcourts and certain select clay courts.
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R1 MATCH TO WATCH: Richard Gasquet [27] vs. Andreas Seppi

=In the End...=
...Nadal is here. If he gets injured chaos will ensue. If he stays fit he won’t face a challenge until the end of the tournament.

4th: NADAL D. SHAPOVALOV
4th: SCHWARTZMAN D. ANDERSON
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QF: NADAL D. SCHWARTZMAN

=CILIC QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO ARG...Juan Martin, if fit, is the only player in the draw who could beat Rafa. It won’t be easy. He opens with Nicolas Mahut and will probably have to play Albert Ramos Vinolas. But after that his route to the semi-finals is probably clear. He has a serious injury to contend with. If he can get clear of that he should be in with a chance. He is one of many players who should have won this title but have not been able to because of the Spaniard.
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2. TOMAS BERDYCH CZE...He was once a handful of points away from the final. He has made three quarterfinals here and is very hard to beat on the dirt. He has huge weapons, veteran savvy, and a quarter that doesn’t look too intimidating. He has not won a title in two years but his last final [’17 Lyon] was on clay. John Isner and a hurt Delpo are all that stands between him and the quarterfinals. and possibly more.
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3. FABIO FOGNINI ITA...He might not have consistency but he does have a lot of talent, history at this event and the ability to beat anybody. Opening against Pablo Andujar is hard but Kyle Edmund is his nearest seed and he should win that comfortably. He only needs to find his game for two or three hours and he can just keep getting through his matches.
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DARK HORSE: MARIN CILIC CRO...He is the third seed and made the final last year. He can do damage if he can find his rhythm but this BACKSPINNER has never had great faith in the Croat.
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WILD HORSE: CASPER RUUD NOR...This kid probably won’t make the quarterfinals but he has already had a great result in just qualifying. He wasn’t seeded in the qualies but didn’t drop a set in three best of three set matches. He only lost 14 games. This 19 year old is 170 lbs. of pure potential. He has a versatile forehand, which can produce everything from a forehand dropshot to a big swinging inside out strike.
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DONKEY: KYLE EDMUND GBR...At Wimbledon he might do a bit better but the draw isn’t kind and is he ready to backup that Australian Open performance?
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R1 MATCH TO WATCH FABIO FOGNINI ITA VS. PABLO ANDUJAR ESP

=In the End...=
...Berdych and Fognini surprise, taking advantage of Del Potro’s groin injury. The following prediction is based on the Argentine being hurt.

4th: BERDYCH D. DEL POTRO
4th: FOGNINI D. CILIC
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QF: BERDYCH D. FOGNINI

=DIMITROV QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. GRIGOR DIMITROV BUL...He starts on Sunday and that should give him extra rest later on. He has had some good results but not this year and not on this surface. He is 1-1 in clay finals. And he has yet to go beyond the third round here. But it has to happen eventually. He has too much finesse, too much big-time experience and too much talent to just fold early again. He will face a tough second round match if Nicolas Jarry gets through. A match against Roberto Bautista Agut or Novak Djokovic beckons in the fourth round and Fernando Verdasco in the third. But this BACKSPINNER trusts in the purity of the one-hander.
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2. NOVAK DJOKOVIC SRB...He comes in seeded 20th and there is no reason to believe in him. Except this- there are three former winners of this tournament in the draw. There is one person in the draw who has beaten Rafa here. Djokovic has been to three finals. He may be waning but look beyond him at your peril.
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3. DAVID GOFFIN BEL...How will he be mentally affected by his injury from last year? Even if the slam results are not there, everything else is. He has great game and a lot of ability, especially on this surface. He is like David Ferrer but with less consistency and more firepower. He opens with Robin Haase, Ivo Karlovic and then Gael Monfils. On clay that’s probably not much to worry about. Playing Pablo Carreno Busta in the fourth round is probably a lot more of a worry. That will probably be a five set epic.
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DARK HORSE: PABLO CARRENO BUSTA ESP...Nick Kyrgios has just pulled out of the French Open. If he is prepping for Wimbledon, which he will do much better in than here, he has made a wise decision. It means Federico Delbonis is probably who PCB will end up playing in the third round. It means you can lock up the Spaniard in the fourth round.
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WILD HORSE: GAEL MONFILS FRA...As If this needs any explanation.
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DONKEY: NICK KYRGIOS AUS...He has gone early. And part of you wonders if that’s tactical or legitimate. He has done this before and will probably do so again. What is amazing is that Bernard Tomic has actually put in the effort and qualified.
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R1 MATCH TO WATCH: MARCOS BAGHDATIS CYP VS. SANTIAGO GIRALDO [Q]

=In the End...=
...We see a revival from Djokovic, though not a long-lived one. Nole edges out Roberto Bautista Agut in five epic sets but has nothing left for his match with Dimitrov. Goffin takes care of business but does get pushed by Busta. In the quarterfinals it is Dimitrov who triumphs, turning his 7-1 h2h advantage into an 8-1 lead.

4th: GOFFIN D. BUSTA
4th: DIMITROV D. DJOKOVIC
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QF: DIMITROV D. GOFFIN

=ZVEREV QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. ALEX ZVEREV GER...He has three Masters titles and is the world number three. He also has a 14-11 mark in slams. It is woeful. It is embarrassing. It needs to be amended. And he is going to do it here. He has a tricky fourth round with either Stan Wawrinka or Lucas Pouille. Before that he has three matches to fine tune the backhand and get it fully operational. In this draw his backhand is the biggest weapon. He can do anything with it. It is a lot more fluid than Djokovic’s and more versatile too. He wrecks people with it. He just stands at the baseline and dictates play. He will be the next new world number one. If he can win here that day may come sooner than we think.
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2. DOMINIC THIEM AUT...Imagine how good he could be if he actually scheduled his season properly. Instead of playing the week before a slam he could actually, I don’t know, chill out and prepare properly. It is mind-boggling how he schedules. It screams early retirement. It stinks of burnout. Fortunately he has a weak draw. But to make it three semi-finals in a row he will need to most likely get past Zverev. That could be the match of the tournament.
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3. STAN WAWRINKA SUI...This entire quarter is destined to come down to Thiem vs Zverev. It may as well have been written in the stars. But if anyone can break up that duopoly it is this Man. The most dangerous Man in any draw, he opens with Guillermo Garcia Lopez. The Spaniard has beaten him before in the first round of the French. It was the year he won in Australia. He has a tricky run ahead of him- Pouille is not going to be an easy matchup, especially in Paris. But the Swiss man should still make the fourth round.
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DARK HORSE: ERNESTS GULBIS LAT...Does this need any explanation?
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WILD HORSE: BENOIT PAIRE FRA...See above. This is as self-explanatory as it gets.
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DONKEY: SAM QUERREY USA...An American on clay. We’ve seen how this one goes.
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R1 MATCH TO WATCH: DANIIL MEDVEDEV RUS VS. LUCAS POUILLE FRA

=In the End...=
...Alex Zverev breaks Thiem’s streak and his duck.

4th: THIEM D. NISHIKORI
4th: ZVEREV D. WAWRINKA
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QF: ZVEREV D. THIEM

=SEMIFINAL=
#1 NADAL D. #17 BERDYCH
#2 ZVEREV D. #4 DIMITROV

=FINAL=
#1 NADAL D. #2 ZVEREV

...Nadal owns Berdman. And Dimitrov isn’t going to beat Zverev over five. That is the same reason the German wont beat Rafa.


** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **

*WOMEN*
=ROUND OF 16 PREDICTIONS=
#1 Halep d. #16 Mertens
#7 Garcia d. #12 Kerber
Stosur d. Bencic
S. Williams d. #28 Sharapova
#5 Ostapenko d. #9 V. Williams
#4 Svitolina d. #21 Osaka
#10 Stephens d. #8 Kvitova
#23 Saurez-Navarro d. #32 Cornet

...Expect to read the sentence ‘Elise Mertens is the first Belgian since Clijsters/Henin to do XYZ’ a lot in the coming years. She made the semi-finals of the year’s first grand slam and did it without dropping a set. She even spanked Elina Svitolina 6-4, 6-0 in the quarters. She came within a whisker of forcing Caro Wozniacki into a third set. In fact, if she had managed to nick the second set she may have gone onto the final. Regardless, apart from Gavrilova there isn’t much here. Halep choking in the French Open final is an annual occurrence; why pick against it? There is no slam Angie Kerber can’t play at but if there is one she doesn’t do as well at, it is here. It seems to be nothing to do with the surface, either, which is strange. All the dangerous floaters ended up in one quarter of the draw so again it’ll be the big seeds duking it out. Shuai Peng is also here.

Garbine Muguruza is the best player here. But she’s been off lately. And she feels ripe for the upset. She has only ever lost once to Svetlana Kuznetsova. Against Sam Stosur she’s 2-1 and 1-1 on clay. This BACKSPINNER gets the feeling that one of them will take her out. Muguruza playing Kuznetsova is the opening match of the tournament on either side. There is a lot of young talent on the other half of this section but Belinda Bencic has to go on a run soon. Laura Siegemund is a handy player but can you trust her? This BACKSPINNER refuses to pick a woman about to turn 37 who has just given birth to win a slam. That would be insane. But to make it to a quarterfinal? Sure. Ordinarily Ash Barty would be the pick here but is she ready to take on Serena? Julia Goerges is another who drew the short straw. This feels like Maria Sharapova’s last shot to make a deep run. Let’s see if it happens.

Kateryna Kozlova is not a bad player but she won’t beat the defending champion and 5th seed. Barbora Stryocoa and Vika Azarenka lurk here but you would think Azarenka is building up to the US Open and summer hard-court swing. Jo Konta taking on the insane Yulia Putintseva will be interesting. The Kazakh could lose the crowd and that always makes it more interesting. The fact Venus is even here is fantastic. Seeded 9th she should make the fourth round. Naomi Osaka is going to back up her Indian Wells performance here. There isn’t anybody in her section she can’t handle and she has been to the third round here before. The really fascinating match here is going to be in the second round when Fran Schiavone takes on the Ukrainian. Elina Svitolina will probably win a slam before Halep at this rate but she doesn’t look close at the moment. Still this is by far her best slam.

This BACKSPINNER buys Petra Kvitova on clay. She has had some great results and she is probably going to win Wimbledon. But Sloane Stephens best slam was Roland Garros traditionally. And that will continue this year. Anett Kontaveit and Ana Sevastova are both here, as is Camila Giorgi. Also here is the most boring tennis player on the planet, Madison Brengle. If you see her match on the TV go and watch paint dry instead. There’s a great first round match to watch here- Kaia Kanepi against Daria Kasatkina. But forget them and forget Maria Sakkari. Why? Because this BACKSPINNER loves Carla Suarez Navarro here. Wozniacki is a sitting duck and will have zero impact. If she even gets out of the first round she’ll struggle to get past Miss Ooh La La. [Alize Cornet]

=QUARTERFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#1 Halep d. #7 Garcia
Stosur d. S. Williams
#5 Ostapenko d. #4 Svitolina
#23 Suarez-Navarro d. #10 Stephens

...Garcia will one day make a final at her home tournament. This BACKSPINNER really believes that. But she needs a kinder draw. Halep is desperate for her first slam. Stosur knows how to beat Williams and especially how to do it here. Serena has to run out of puff eventually. Ostapenko is 2-0 against Svitolina and has not dropped a set yet. Expect CSN to drag out her match and grind her opponent into the red dust with her metronomic style of play. And, yes, it is insane to predict her to get that far.

=SEMIFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#1 Halep d. Stosur
#5 Ostapenko d. #23 Suarez-Navarro

...This BACKSPINNER cannot think of how Stosur would beat Halep. She has a real hoodoo with the semi-final stage does the Australian. Meanwhile the Spaniard will implode.

=FINAL PREDICTION=
#5 Ostapenko d. #1 Halep

...Until Halep actually wins a slam final it is impossible to pick her to do so. She hasn’t shown she can do that yet. Ostapenko has…..

Go to WTABACKSPIN, they have rice-a-roni.

I'll be seeing you all soon and far too frequently for your liking.

Galileo.

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