U.S. Open Preview: Don't Let the Stars Get in Your Eyes

So, Roger Federer's last chance has arrived. The season that was supposed to see him crowned "The Greatest of All-Time" is two weeks away from going by without the Swiss Mister winning a single grand slam title.

Instead of Federer, the grand slam season has revolved around Novak Djokovic (who won in Melbourne) and Rafael Nadal (who's won pretty much everything since the spring). Meanwhile, Federer's legend has lost a great deal of its luster as he's looked mortal for the first time in five years... even if he DID finally pick up that missing Olympic Gold in Beijing, in doubles, no less. Rather than be emboldened by the Wimbledon final against Nadal, Federer seems to have been mentally scarred by losing on his "home" court, even if it was in a Match for the Ages. Unless the coveted Beijing Gold has sewn up his psychological wounds, it might not be until 2009 that we see a Federer who resembles the player who enters (rather quietly, oddly enough) this tournament as the four-time defending U.S. Open champion.

Djokovic, who became a true star a year ago at the Open, has sort of been lost in the backwash of the ups-and-downs of Rafa & Roger (the correct order of reference now, I guess) throughout 2008's first eight months. But that could change in New York. Nadal is on an almost inhuman Roland Garros-Wimbledon-Olympics title streak, and comes to the Open less worn down and playing better on hard courts than he ever has. Good timing, with his new #1 ranking and ending of Federer's 18-slam string of being the top-seeded player in the men's draw. But Djokovic defeated Nadal in Cincinnati in August, and is likely still thinking about the-flubbed-overhead-heard-round-the-world in their Olympic semifinal matchup.

There's nothing like a little extra motivation... especially for the Serbian Prince who still desperately wishes to be King.

The buzz of New York City fits the Djokovic's mentality and personality better than either Rafa or Roger's, but does that mean The Entertainer is the favorite to grab his second slam of the season? Umm, well no... but it just might happen.

Here's the thinking of things:

*ROUND OF 16*
#1 Nadal def. #22 Berdych
#9 Blake def. #32 Monfils
#17 del Potro def. #4 Ferrer (del Potro's won four straight titles, and was a U.S. Open Series star)
#6 Murray def. #21 Youzhny
Gulbis def. #11 Gonzalez
#3 Djokovic def. #19 Tsonga
Tipsarevic def. #26 Tursunov
#2 Federer def. #13 Verdasco

...what are the odds that Roddick makes it past the potential 1st-2nd Round combo of opponents named Santoro and Gulbis? Rarely has a player placed so much emphasis on a short period (the North American hard court season, which he skipped the Olympics for in order to prepare for this event) with so little actual on-court output. One would think he'd have either Gilbert or Connors on speed dial by now... but one also knows better.

*QF*
#1 Nadal def. #9 Blake (Blake has a shot here, especially if a ball ticks Rafa's racket)
#17 del Potro def. #6 Murray
#3 Djokovic def. Gulbis
#2 Federer def. Tipsarevic (Melbourne Redux)

...if Blake could ever come up big in NY, the place would go crazy.

*SF*
#1 Nadal def. #17 del Potro
#3 Djokovic def. #2 Federer

...wonder if Federer's off-season schedule is going to be as busy this November/December as it was last year?

*FINAL*
#3 Djokovic def. #1 Nadal

...could we finally get the first classic U.S. Open men's final in about twenty years?


All for now.

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