2009 ATP Top 10 Predictions

2008 was all about Rafael Nadal's rise to power, but what of 2009?

Will the Spaniard's body, which broke down right on schedule down the stretch of last season, enable him to maintain the grinding effectiveness he's shown in recent seasons? After such a magnificent year, what could he possible do for an encore?

The "B" story in '08, of course, was Roger Federer assuming his new role as the world number TWO, a mere mortal still wearing his Superman clothes... After years of dominating everyone BUT Nadal, Federer suddenly found himself on the losing end in matches against players (Fish, Blake, etc..) who won the equivalent of a tennis lottery by getting their very own Roger pelt on days when he was only a shadow of his former self. But was Federer's "slip" (hey, he still finished #2, won the U.S. Open and was hardly playing second fiddle to Rafa in the "Greatest Match Ever Played") brought on by poor early-season scheduling that only prolonged the after-effects of his battle with mono, or the beginning of the end? Or maybe both? After all, even a return of something resembling the "Federer of old" won't likely produce a repeat of "the old Federer dominance." But it could get him back to #1.

Here's a take on how the men will stand one year from now:

1. Roger Federer, SUI... Pistol Pete should prepare for some company at the top of all-time slam title list, at the very least. Federer's not going anywhere (he's eying the Olympics in London '12, where the tennis will be played you-know-where), and it's difficult to imagine his legacy will continue to leak oil so far away from his destination.
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2. Rafael Nadal, ESP... could he possibly have as sterling a summer in '09 (sweeping Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the Olympics) as he did a year ago? It would seem unlikely, but hardly impossible. Rafa will win RG and threaten to repeat at SW19, but will it be enough to hold off a potentially healthier and wiser Federer?
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3. Andy Murray, GBR... there is no stiff upper lip involved when it comes to the Scotsman. A season ago, he pulled off a string of big wins, won two Masters titles and reached a slam final. In 2009, it's time to take the next step and erase the phrase "no British man since Fred Perry in 1936 has won a slam title" from the sports lexicon.
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4. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, FRA... the fabulously entertaining Frenchman starred in Melbourne in January, then won the Paris Masters in November. The intervening nine months produced very little to remember. There might not be a more emotionally invigorating player in the sport than Tsonga, but he has to be able to keep himself on the court in order for his talent to reach its potential (and maybe become a NYC star in a night session match next year)...
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5. Novak Djokovic, SRB... IF Federer is back in form. IF Murray and Tsonga carry over their '08 breakthroughs. If, if if. IF Djokovic can improve his fitness so that he's a consistent threat ALL season, none of that may matter. But if he can't, he might slip back a bit this season, if only temporarily.
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6. Gilles Simon, FRA... he was 2-0 against Federer last season, and made the quietest big-time jump on tour (#29 to #7). Whether or not he can make his mark with a deep slam run (he's yet to reach a Round of 16) will reveal just how good he REALLY is.
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7. Nikolay Davydenko, RUS... his season-ending Masters Cup RU was his best career big event result.
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8. Juan Martin del Potro, ARG... overscheduling in North America might have robbed him of a chance to make a splash at the 2008 U.S. Open.
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9. Stanislas Wawrinka, SUI... winning the doubles Gold in Beijing might do just as much for his confidence in '09 as it did for Federer's mental state late last summer.
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10. Andy Roddick, USA... he finally became relevant again in 2008... but it didn't last very long.



DON'T FORGET... Gael Monfils/FRA (always a home run-or-strike out proposition), James Blake/USA, David Nalbandian/ARG and David Ferrer/ESP
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LOOK OUT FOR... Marin Cilic/CRO
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AND... Marcos Baghdatis/CYP (we can only hope)
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WHO THE FREAK KNOWS (as usual)?... Marat Safin & Ivan Ljubicic
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MOTHERS, LOCK UP YOUR DAUGHTERS... Radek Stepanek is on the town
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AND THE AUCTION IN WHICH EVERYONE WILL WANT TO PARTICIPATE ...the one with the naked tennis lessons from Andy Roddick, as long as Brooklyn Decker is somehow involved.


MRS. RODDICK-TO-BE


*MAJOR EVENT FINAL PREDICTIONS*
AO: Murray d. Federer (Alternates: Tsonga, Simon, Djokovic)
RG: Nadal d. Djokvoic (Alt: Federer, Monfils)
W: Federer d. Nadal (Alt.: Djokovic, Murray)
US: Federer d. Tsonga (Alt.: Djokovic, Simon)
MC: Murray d. Djokovic (Alt.: Federer, Tsonga)



For a second opinion, here's what Tennisrulz Head Honcho Pierre Cantin says:

1-Roger Federer
2-Andy Murray
3-Novak Djokovic
4-Rafael Nadal
5-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
6-Juan Martin del Potro
7-Nikolay Davydenko
8-Andy Roddick
9-Gilles Simon
10-Gael Monfils

*MAJOR EVENT FINAL PREDICTIONS*
AO: Federer d. Djokovic
RG: Nadal (that's all)
W: Federer d. Nadal
US: Murray d. Federer
MC: Federer d. Djokovic

Of course, we could be wrong. Well, on pretty much everything except for Roddick's inability to re-climb the mountain (oh, and the Brooklyn Decker thing, of course).

(Hmmm, maybe I should have sounded the Too Obvious Joke Alarm before that one, huh?)

All for now.

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