Wimbledon Preview: Put Up or Shut Up Time

While Roland Garros centered around whether or not Rafael Nadal could possibly BE THAT GOOD on clay and win the whole thing once again for the fourth straight time (that one was an unqualified "yes"), Wimbledon is all about Roger Federer.

The five-time defending champion arrives at SW19 having gone undefeated at the All-England Club since 2003, and without a solitary loss on a grass court in fifty-nine matches. But, here we are, and many are thinking that Nadal might actually be the favorite to become the first player to pull off the RG/Wimbledon exacta since Bjorn Borg in 1980 (and he wouldn't likely have to publicly "call out" Federer to do it, either, unlike a certain Serbian Prince Who Desperately Wants to Be King did the other day).

There's certainly reason to believe it might play out that way. Nadal's grass court game has become a wonder that no one expected to see a few years ago. He pushed Federer to five sets in last year's Wimbledon final (and very nearly won the title before that point, losing two sets in tie-breaks before knotting things), and just became the first player to win in Paris and then, a week later, take the London grass event since Ilie Nastase did it in 1973. In that tournament, Nadal knocked out Andy Roddick, as well as Novak Djokovic. He might just win Wimbledon at the end of the upcoming fortnight and be well on his way to finally claiming the #1 ranking before the end of 2008.

But not so fast.

Remember, Federer is still the Grass King until someone proves otherwise. ALMOST losing is one thing, while LOSING is another. He extended his grass string in Halle with a title a week ago, and seemed to immediately take to the grass just days after having his head (and arms, legs, torso, feet and maybe a portion of his psyche) handed to him by Rafa in the Roland Garros final. Many think that beating will take a psychological toll on Federer. I might be inclined to agree, if we weren't talking about grass court tennis here. At SW19, Federer is much more likely to compartmentalize his latest failure and declare it "ancient history." A loss in London of the same order as the one in Paris probably would wreck his confidence, but getting spanked by maybe the best clay court player who ever lived? One would think that Federer would take it with a grain of salt, especially considering the closeness of their two previous clay matchups in Monte Carlo and Hamburg heading into Roland Garros.

Yes, Federer has a tough draw (Soderling in the 2nd, Monfils in the 3rd, Djokovic in the SF), but I recall everyone staring at tough draws for Federer before only to see him move on with little difficulty, both in London and in New York in recent seasons. Plus, Nadal doesn't exactly have a coronation street presented to him, either. He might face John Isner's serve on grass in the 2nd Round, with the likes of Kiefer, Youzhny/Stepanek, Murray/Gasquet and Roddick potentially attempting to block his path to another slam final berth.

So, what's the THOUGHT about what will happen? Well...

(cue the "Jeopardy!" thinking music)

*ROUND OF 16*
#1 Federer d. #20 Hewitt (Lleyton's nightmare... again)
Ancic d. #11 Berdych (Ancic is the last player to defeat Federer on grass, but he's got a toughie in the 1st Rd. vs. #32 Llodra)
#3 Djokovic d. #13 Wawrinka
#7 Nalbandian d. #18 Karlovic (when little is expected of him, Nalbandian often strikes)
#6 Roddick d. #9 Blake
#14 Mathieu d. #4 Davydenko
#12 Murray d. #8 Gasquet (there's no Henman to divert the tabloids anymore)
#2 Nadal d. #17 Youzhny

*QF*
#1 Federer d. Ancic (not again)
#3 Djokovic d. #7 Nalbandian
#6 Roddick d. #14 Mathieu (might Andy lose to ANOTHER Frenchman in the QF, ala Gasquet '07?)
#2 Nadal d. #12 Murray

*SF*
#1 Federer d. #3 Djokovic (put up or shut up time)
#2 Nadal d. #6 Roddick

*FINAL*
#1 Federer d. #2 Nadal

...it be so easy to go the other way, but "proving it" is next to "godliness," and Rafa might not be quite there just yet. Still, this one could put last year's "instant classic" to shame.


All for now.

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Roland Garros Final: Deconstructing Federer

After years of picking apart his opponents' games, turning grand slam finals into a man-vs.-boy exhibition (ask Lleyton Hewitt about that U.S. Open final in '04) and generally coming THIS CLOSE to completely humiliating some of the best players in the world, Roger Federer learned how "the other half" has often lived in his large shadow in Sunday's Roland Garros singles final.

Not surprisingly, it was the indomitable Rafael Nadal who taught him this lesson in an awesome display of tennis dominance that the four-time RG champion has possibly never exhibited before and likely never will again.


JACQUES DEMARTHON/AFP/Getty Images

But, then again, we are talking about Rafa and Roland Garros, so who knows?

Nadal and Federer met in Paris for the sixth time at a slam, for the fifth time in a slam final and for the fourth straight year at Roland Garros. Not surprising, considering the two have now won fourteen of the last sixteen grand slam titles. But the superior form Nadal had shown over the past two weeks, for maybe the first time ever, caused there to be very little support for Federer's chances to emerge with a victory to complete a career Grand Slam, not even with Bjorn Borg publicly stating that he'd deem the Swiss Mister "the best player ever" if he were to do so (and prevent Nadal from matching the Swede's record four straight RG titles... hmmm, can you say, "ulterior motive?").

Long shots might have been in style this sports weekend, but Federer was hardly up to playing the Da'Tara role to Nadal's Big Brown... err, I mean Secretariat.

Federer essentially had one shot in each of the first two sets to potentially make a match of things, but no more. After he was broken in the first game of the match, he managed to get a break point with a chance to even the set in the early going. He didn't convert, and Nadal proceeded to blow him off the court in shocking fashion by a 6-1 score. By the time the score was 2-0 Rafa in the 2nd set, he'd put together an incredible run of winning twenty-four of twenty-seven points as he answered everything that a hardly-recognizable Federer had to offer with perfect shot after perfect shot.

In the 2nd set, Federer earned another break point on Nadal's serve at 3-3. He failed to grab an advantage in a long rally... and never won another game. For the rest of the ENTIRE match. Nadal swept the final nine games, winning 6-1/6-3/6-0. After having bageled opponents in six sets in grand slam final play during his career, Federer was on the receiving end of the ignominy for the first time.

But it didn't end there.

Federer faced a break point on ten of his eleven service games. With just four games to his name, it was Federer's worst loss in 173 grand slam matches. And the twenty-two total games in the match were the fewest in a Roland Garros final since 1977.

Meanwhile, Nadal committed just seven unforced errors for the entire match (Federer had 35), and finished up the tournament without losing a set. It's just the seventh time it's been done in grand slam competition during the Open Era, only the second time in the last twenty-eight years (Federer - '07 Australian), and the first time at Roland Garros since Borg in 1980. Speaking again of Borg, Nadal now stands just two behind his Open Era RG title record of six. With a 41-0 career record on clay in best-of-five-set matches, and a perfect 28-0 in Paris, Nadal might just be able to catch the Swede before he even loses his first-EVER match at Roland Garros.

Of course, Rafa being Rafa, he displayed no need to lord his brilliance over Federer's head on this day. During the post match ceremony, he said, "Roger, I'm sorry for the final." And you could actually believe the Spaniard meant it, and would savor the chance to win a classic battle with Federer on the clay (probably more so than Roger would want to be stretched to the limit by Nadal at Wimbledon, at least).

So, Federer's seemingly star-crossed quest to win in Paris continues after being thuddingly thwarted in '08, even as he'd seemed to be moving in the right direction heading into Roland Garros. He hired Jose Higueras as a coach, won the first tournament he played while working with him, then played Nadal tightly in two matches in Monte Carlo and Hamburg. But, still, in Paris it didn't matter. Nadal was healthy and slightly more rested coming into this event than in past seasons, and it seemed to do him much good. As great as he'd been during his three previous title runs, he was remarkably (and definitively) even better this time around.

So, the question remains whether Federer will EVER win in Paris and complete his career mastery of all four slams. Can he ever solve the Nadal riddle at Roland Garros? Maybe, but it'll take much work, and even while he's still at the top of the sport, nearly 27-year old Federer's "best years" have probably already passed. Certainly, as today showed, he can sometimes be handled and unable to get his game together on his worst days, something which never occurred a few seasons ago. Maybe he'll be able to stick around long enough to take advantage of the 22-year old Nadal's eventual decline. It'll happen eventually, but will Federer be able to still be the second or third best clay court player on earth as he reaches age 30? Could he stick around long enough to mount one final charge in Paris as a "grizzled veteran" of say, age 33 or 34, ala Andre Agassi in his later years? If so, that would be one dramatic final chapter, huh?

Call it, "Indiana Federer and the Search for the Secret of the Terre Battue."

What shouldn't be lost in the results of Paris and Nadal's clay court mastery, though, is that Federer is still a major force to be reckoned with. He trails Nadal 11-6 in career head-to-head meetings, but that's largely because they've played nine times on clay with Nadal winning eight times. Federer is good enough on his worst surface to still survive long enough to meet Nadal in clay finals, while Nadal hasn't been able to say the same in hard court events (though he has reached the Wimbledon final on grass two years running). Federer leads 5-2 in career matches on those two surfaces.

Which leads us to the All-England Club, and where Federer's season REALLY begins. Federer has won just one title so far in 2008, while Nadal has four and Novak Djokovic three. Those numbers should tighten up as the world #1 plays tournaments on more favorable surfaces, but he WILL be challenged at the Wimbledon and U.S. Open this time around. SW19 is HIS Roland Garros (he's won 54 straight matches on grass going back to 2003), but Nadal has shown vast improvement on grass the past two seasons. He stretched Federer to five sets in the Wimbledon final a year ago, and he's certainly closer to winning in London than Federer is in Paris.

As things stand, Federer is STILL the best player in the world... until further notice. But that could change in a month. If Nadal can manage to knock off King Roger on his "home turf," the Spaniard will officially cease to be "The Sorcerer's Apprentice."

Today, Nadal was indomitable... but he's on the brink of what dreams are made of.



=DAY 15 NOTES=
...in the Boys final, the runners-up from the last two grand slam junior competitions, Poland's Jerzy Janowicz ('07 US Boys RU) and Taiwan's Yang Tsung-Hua ('08 Oz Boys RU), met to determine who'd finally take home a title. In the end, it was Yang who emerged victorious by a 6-3/7-6 score.

...and finally, Nadal's RG title means the last three men's slam titles have been won by three different people for the first time since 2004-05, when Federer (US Open), Marat Safin (Australian Open) and Nadal (Roland Garros) divided up three straight majors.



*MOST CONSECUTIVE ROLAND GARROS TITLES*
[since 1925]
4...Bjorn Borg, 1978-81
4...RAFAEL NADAL, 2005-08
[before 1925]
4...P.Ayme, 1897-1900
3...A.Vacherot, 1894-96
3...Max Decugis, 1907-09
3...Max Decugis, 1912-14

*MOST ROLAND GARROS TITLES - ALL-TIME*
8...Max Decugis
6...Bjorn Borg
5...Henri Cochet
5...A.Vacherot
4...RAFAEL NADAL
4...P.Ayme

*NADAL vs. FEDERER - SURFACE HEAD-TO-HEAD*
Hard court - Federer leads 3-2
Grass court - Federer leads 2-0
Clay court - Nadal leads 9-1
Carpet - never played

*WON SLAM WITHOUT LOSING A SET - OPEN ERA*
1971 Australian Open - Ken Rosewall
1973 Roland Garros - Ilie Nastase
1976 Wimbledon - Bjorn Borg
1978 Roland Garros - Bjorn Borg
1980 Roland Garros - Bjorn Borg
2007 Australian Open - Roger Federer
2008 Roland Garros - Rafael Nadal

*RECENT RG BOYS CHAMPIONS*
1998 Fernando Gonzalez
1999 Guillermo Coria
2000 Paul-Henri Mathieu
2001 Carlos Cuadrado
2002 Richard Gasquet
2003 Stanislas Wawrinka
2004 Gael Monfils
2005 Marin Cilic
2006 Martin Klizan
2007 Uladzimir Ignatik
2008 Yang Tsung-Hua



All for now.

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RG Day 13- It Depends on What the Definition of "Is" Is

While the women have produced a few back-from-the-dead thrillers, the men's side hasn't exactly "popped" in Paris.

Of course, that means we get another Roger vs. Rafa final.  So why worry?

With Rafael Nadal's straight sets SF win over Novak Djokovic, and Roger Federer's four-setter over Frenchman Gael Monfilson Day Thirteen, this Sunday we'll get the fifth grand slam final matchup over the past three seasons between the world's two best players.

It's been a long and winding season for both men, with neither getting into the champion's column in' 08 until the clay court season began.  While Nadal's slowly-building year wasn't highlighted, Federer's was used as evidence to prove that his days of dominance might be over.

Not so fast.  Whether it was the bout with mono that slowed Federer in the early months of the season, or the loss of conditioning that caused him to be not quite up to snuff, he seems to have found his footing in Europe during the clay season.

While he'll be a tremendous underdog against Nadal in the final (the Spaniard has yet to lose a set, and really hasn't even been truly challenged on that front, either), Federer seems to be right on schedule for his usual summer run.  He's come close in two clay losses to Nadal in Monte Carlo (7-5/7-5) and Hamburg (7-5/6-7/6-3), grabbing big leads only to be unable to put his opponent away.  2008 isn't likely the year Federer completes the career Grand Slam, but it still could be the season he ties Pete Sampras on the all-time slam title list.  He needs two, and he's surely looking good for Wimbledon with his recent form, and will surely be in the mix (with Djokovic, and maybe Andy Roddick) in New York... unless he wrings himself out trying to claim an elusive Gold in Beijing just weeks before the US Open.

The opening months of 2008 weren't a call for an epitaph to be written for Federer's position in the game.  In fact, they could turn out to be the natural calm before the continuation of the storm.  Come September, we could still be seeing Pete Sampras joining Federer on the court at Arthur Ashe as the "co-grand slam champions of all-time."

Federer still IS the best in the world.  Will his dominance ever again go nearly unquestioned as it so often has in recent seasons?  Probably not.... but it might depend on what your definition of "is" is.

Of course, winning in Paris against Nadal is another story.

** ** ** **

*GRAND SLAM FINALS - ACTIVE*
15...ROGER FEDERER (12-2)
6...RAFAEL NADAL (3-2)
4...Marat Safin (2-2)
4...Lleyton Hewitt (2-2)
4....Andy Roddick (1-3)

*CAREER SLAM S/D TITLES - ACTIVE*
12...Roger Federer
10...Mahesh Bhupathi
9...Jonas Bjorkman
9...Leander Paes
9...BOB BRYAN
7...Mike Bryan
7...Max Mirnyi

*MOST ATP MATCHUPS IN FINALS*
20...Ivan Lendl vs. John McEnroe
16...Andre Agassi vs. Pete Sampras
16...Boris Becker vs. Stefan Edberg
15...Jimmy Connors vs. John McEnroe
13...ROGER FEDERER vs. RAFAEL NADAL
13...Boris Becker vs. Ivan Lendl
12...Bjorn Borg vs. Jimmy Connors

*2008 ATP FINALS*
6...RAFAEL NADAL (3-2)
4...ROGER FEDERER (1-2)
3...Novak Djokovic (3-0)
3...Nikolay Davydenko (2-1)
3...Nicolas Almagro (2-1)

*ROGER vs. RAFA IN SLAM FINALS*
06 RG - Nadal  1-6/6-1/6-4/7-6
06 WI - Federer  6-0/7-6/6-7/6-3
07 RG - Nadal  6-3/4-6/6-3/6-4
07 WI - Federer  7-6/4-6/7-6/2-6/6-2
08 RG - ??

** ** ** **

All for now. 

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