Wk.7- Will the Czech Cash in in 2014?

Hey Y'all. Galileo here.

The Americas clay swing continued with a stop in Buenos Aires this week. No player has won more than two titles in one run yet and, barring something extraordinary, that trend looks set to continue with Nadal playing in Brazil this week. Almagro has won the most titles with Ferrer -- they both have six, though neither have won in Chile.

The Davis Cup aside, the woes of the French continued despite having so many top players. There were no quarterfinalists this week anywhere. With Tsonga and Gasquet headlining Marseille, that should change. Incredibly, they are one of three nations that have two representatives in the top ten. The others are Spain and Switzerland. France had five titles in singles and doubles combined at this stage last year and four the year before. This year it is just two. Worriedly, Gasquet is the ninth best player in the world. It will be interesting to see if the talented Frenchman can stay there.

Fognini had a ten match win streak snapped by Ferrer in the final. I think his ranking of fourteen is entirely justified. He has yet to prove himself on grass, but he is a tough competitor on hard courts and I think he may be able to beat some of those ranked above him on clay on his day. I would love to see him play Murray or Berdych in Rome with the home crowd behind him. He made a semi in Monte Carlo last year and I wouldn't bet against him doing the same in Rome this year. I think he really can beat anyone.

We also had the first 500 level tournament of the year. We have ten left with three in the next two weeks. The next is in April in Barcelona. Here's a fun fact: Nadal has never lost a set in a 500 final which he has gone on to win. Berydch won his first title since October 2012 with his win here. He was the only top ten player to not win a title last year. With the win he improved to 9-11 going 0-3 in finals in '13 and 1-5 in his previous six finals before this one.
But enough of my talking, stuff happened this week and it went like this:



*WEEK 7 CHAMPIONS*
ROTTERDAM, NED
S: Tomas Berdych def. Marin Cilic 6-4/6-3
D: Llodra/Mahut d. Roger/Tecau
MEMPHIS, USA
S: Kei Nishikori def. Ivo Karlovic 6-4/7-6
D: Butorac/Klaasen d. Bryan/Bryan
BUENOS AIRES, ARG
S: David Ferrer def. Fabio Fognini 6-4/6-3
D: Granollers/M.Lopez d. Cuevas/Zeballos


PLAYER OF THE WEEK: BERDYCH, CZE
...Berdych ended his drought by winning his third 500 level tournament. He is now 3-1 in 500 level finals, having won in Japan and China previously. With a grand slam semifinal and now a 500 title, this may well be the year Berdych finally breaks through into the top four. He has been playing the tennis we all knew he was capable of but which he rarely delivered. This week, he had a tough draw but still managed to come though. That is unlike the way Berdych usually works. At the first sign of pressure, he folds. Not here, however. He beat Seppi and Mahut for the loss of no sets in his opening two matches, dropping just thirteen games. It was Janowicz up next and the young Pole prevailed in an epic first set breaker 11-9. Afterwards, Berdie slowly took control and ground out a comeback win 6-7, 6-2, 6-4. Gulbis had beaten Del Potro to set up a clash with the Czech. Berdych was once more too strong, coming through 3 and 2. A red hot Cilic awaited in the final but Berdych was too strong and he won handily, 6-4, 6-2. Berdych moves up to six and Murray falls to seven in the world. Is this a permanent downward trajectory for the Wimbledon champ? He has few points to defend during the clay swing, which is good, but he is defending a lot of points at Queens and Wimbledon. The good news is that he is likely to be seeded pretty high at SW19 because of his recent grass performances. Berdych can easily rise up to top three because the rankings are chopping and changing so much at present.
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RISER: MONFILS, FRA
...Each of the past two seasons, Ferrer has won the Heineken Open and the Copa Claro by this stage. This year was the first time since 2011 he has failed to win a title in January. He has climbed back up to number four in the world as a result of his performance here. He improves to 21-22 in finals. The reason he has a losing record in finals is partly because he has played Nadal in eight times, all on clay, and has won none of them. It's why he is 11-14 in clay finals. Ferrer has never lost to Almagro, but he holds a very poor record against Nadal. Nadal has overshadowed his overachieving countryman and friend Ferrer. This week, Ferrer played a lot of clay specialists and did not lose a set. He struggled past Gonzalez in the fist round. It took more than 18 minutes for them to complete four games, with Gonzalez taking a 3-1 lead. Ferrer was too strong, however, and came back to win 7-6, 6-4. He beat Giraldo next, 6-4, 7-6. Giraldo is very exciting, by the way. Here is a lesson from him in how to return, if you have the guts to really go for it:

Ferrer sent Ramos packing next, winning 6-1, 6-2 with complete ease. Next Ferrer, on a roll, dispatched Almagro 6-4, 6-2 to advance to the final where second seeded Fognini was to be his opponent. It didn't matter, really, what the Italian did. Ferru had the answers. All of them. After winning 6-4, 6-3 Ferrer moved up to fourth and won his first title of the season. Perhaps this is a bold prediction, but Ferru will win more titles this season.
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SURPRISE: GULBIS, LAT
...To be honest, there is little Gulbis could do that would surprise me. Perhaps if he won back to back slams, which I could see him doing actually. Anyway, the unseeded Latvian number one beat Istomin is his first round match 6-4, 7-6. He won that breaker 7-3. He then beat the young star Dimitrov by an identical scoreline, but 7-4 not 7-3 this time. Dimitrov is the most likely of the young guns to win a slam if you measure it in talent. One hopes he does not turn into baby Gasquet. Early promise, followed by scandal, followed by a comeback, followed by a great 'second' career. Anyway, Gulbis was through to play top five man Del Potro. He beat the hampered Del Potro 6-3, 6-4. The big man has been suffering from a wrist injury as of late. Whether or not it is serious remains to be seen. Gulbis rises one place in the rankings to 23 and will definitely be seeded for the two big tournaments coming up in March.
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VETERAN: RUSSELL, USA
...The pocket sized journeyman turns 36 this year. He has been around for donkeys years. This week he made the semifinals. He beat seventh seed Przysiezny in three sets and then Smyczek in straight sets. He next faced third seed Hewitt. He was too strong for Hewitt, winning 6-3, 7-6. Unfortunately, Nishikori was just too good, ending the vet's run in the semis. Russell has been one of the most consistent journeymen in the game over the last few years and he showed he still has it. One thing to note is that Hewitt and Baghdatis played here in the second round. Hewitt came out on top in a strange match 1-6, 6-2, 6-0.
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COMEBACK: NONE
...There was no comeback this week, but here is an epic 86 shot rally on slow clay between two of the game's greats from the 1978 French Open final.
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DOWN: MURRAY, GBR
...He struggled past Thiem in the second round and then was ousted by Cilic in the next. He went down quietly against Cilic, too. The signs are worrying for Murray. He is starting to get more injuries, he is starting to lose form and his ranking is slipping. Not only that, but he is starting to get older. It does not look good for the Scot.
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1. BUENOS AIRES SF - FOGNINI d. ROBREDO
...3-6/7-5/6-3. This was a classic come from behind win. Down in the second set, the Italian came back from the brink to snatch it. The clay is quick by clay standards in the Argentine capital. This suits Fognini perfectly. He extended his win streak to 10 with this win, though Ferrer would snap it in the final. He is a very underrated player and he is oh so dangerous on clay, too.
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2. MEMPHIS FINAL - NISHIKORI d. KARLOVIC
...6-4/7-6. How do you beat Karlovic 7-0 in a tiebreaker? It is the first breaker he has ever lost to love. No, I don't know that for a fact but the odds are good. Nishikori used the guidebook on Kohl perfectly here -- hitting aggressively to that backhand and getting in as many returns as possible. Long story short, it worked.
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3. ZAGREB 1st Rd. - GASQUET d. DE. BAKKER
...6-7/7-6/6-3. Gasquet has had sketchy form of late and, with plenty of points to defend, it is imperative he picks up his form once more. He was 5-1 up in the opening breaker, but lost it 7-5 before winning the next 7-2 and then the third set 6-3. It was a high quality match with lots of long rallies and some fabulous shot making.
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*RIO*
=SF=
Nadal [1] d. [4] Robredo
Ferrer [2] d. [3] Fognini
=FINAL=
Nadal [1] d. [2] Ferrer

...This draw literally predicts itself.

*MARSEILLE*
=SF=
Gasquet [1] d. [3] Gulbis
Tsonga [2] d. [4] Seppi
=FINAL=
Gasquet [1] d. [2] Tsonga.

...I know it is a risk picking Gasquet to do well here, but Todd picked Stosur to make the final in Dubai (Editor's Note: Not that that worked out so well. - tds), so I can pick riskily, too. I just haven't seen enough from the other seeds and the rest of the field that suggests anything other than a Gasquet win, though it is unlikely to be routine.

*DELRAY BEACH*
=SF=
Haas [1] d. [4] Anderson
Cilic [7] d. [2] Isner
=FINAL=
Haas [1] d. [2] Fognini

...Isner returns here and he should be good enough to serve his way into the semifinals, though Pospisil is returning here also. Cilic is riding a hot streak and he should be too good for Nishikori and Isner. Haas has a softer section and I think he should get through easily enough.

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