2015 Australian Open Preview

Hey Y'all. Galileo here.

Time for the Australian Open predictions:

=DJOKOVIC QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. NOVAK DJOKOVIC SRB...Djokovic has a qualifier [Bedene] and then either Kuznetsov or Ramos, both of whom are established and talented journeymen. I don't think he will be troubled for the first couple rounds. Verdasco lurks in the third and he could take a set. It should be a solid, one break a set performance from the Djoker, but one never knows. Then Bautista-Agut or Isner await in the fourth round. I think that has four set potential. Isner knows how to play Djokovic on hard, but five sets is a different matter. I think Djokovic's first real test comes in the quarters. Either Monfils or Raonic awaits there. Djokovic looks set for another solid Melbourne performance. No man has ever won five Australian Opens. Agassi took four. Federer has four and so does Djokovic. It looks likely one man will stand alone in the open era with the most Australian Opens.
2. MILOS RAONIC CAN...Canada's greatest men's player [I see you there, Eugenie] is a solid fixture in the top ten. He deserves to be there and consistently meets his seedings. Sometimes one must exceed one's seedings in order to excel. If he beats Djokovic he may get his signature win and make his big break at the same time. To get to Djokovic he has to pass tests: a qualifier awaits and then the winner of a qualifier vs. a reborn Donald Young. Now, honestly, this strikes fear into the heart of, well, nobody really, but this is the first slam of the year and Young does have weapons and talent. I think Raonic is mature beyond his years and I think he is very good at getting through matches like that. Lleyton Hewitt probably awaits.



But he should have too much. He is older and more disciplined now. Hewitt is less of a threat these days. But can Raonic beat the frustrating Monfils?
3. GAEL MONFILS FRA... He will likely play the winner of Del Potro and Janowicz. Don't get me wrong, he could easily lose. If he gets through that match then he has to get past Lopez.

Something tells me Monfils is ready. Something tells me he can do these things, he can take that next step and put a successful slam campaign together. So I think he beats Lopez after beating a big server in the second round. And then I think he beats Raonic in five epic, mystifying sets. There's no logic in that pick, but then there's no logic in Monfils, either.
DARK HORSE: JM del POTRO ARG...He won a couple matches in Sydney. He doesn't look like he is playing too badly. If that serve gets going, who knows how far he could get. If that serve and forehand find their range then watch out. He has no right to make a run here, but he can. He is a grand slam champion, and a deserved one. I don't think his draw is soft but I think he has a shot to do something here.
WILD HORSE: FERNANDO VERDASCO ESP ...If he catches fire, he may burn Djokovic. If he plays like his ranking suggests he will he may struggle to do anything. I think he should make the third round and will trouble Djokovic for a few sets before Djokovic goes to a level Ferver can't match. The head to head is 6-4 in Novak's favour.
DONKEY: FELICIANO LOPEZ ESP...I think Lopez should be able to negotiate his soft draw, but he has had some shocking losses recently. I don't think he matches his seeding here and for me that is not acceptable for any world number twelve.
UNLUCKY HORSE: ROBERTO BAUTISTA-AGUT ESP...He drew Thiem. Poor guy. He should win that match but then he has to get through a reinvigorated Muller and a dangerous John Isner. RBA is going nowhere.
=In the End...=
DJOKOVIC D. ISNER
MONFILS D. RAONIC
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DJOKOVIC D. MONFILS

=WAWRINKA QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. STAN WAWRINKA SUI...In an unprecedented move, Wawrinka is now just Stan. Our lives are different, changed. A new year, a new Stan. Gone is Stanislas, the solid top twenty player capable of making the fourth round of slams every now and then, a footnote at the bottom of slam previews and Masters tournament look ahead. He is now Stanbecameaman and he wins slams, he beats Federer, Djokovic and Nadal on different surfaces. He is a world beater. Stan is back and is defending a slam for the first time. As Billie Jean King says, and I endlessly repeat, pressure is a privilege. Stan is loved in Melbourne and he has pressure, yes, but he also has an excellent chance to defend his crown. His path reads: Ilhan, Andujar, Nieminen and Fognini in the first four rounds if one goes by seeds. On another surface [a redder, dustier one] this would be a dangerous draw. Here in Australia it doesn't look so bad. He will face Nishikori or Ferrer in the quarterfinals. That match he should win and he has a chance for revenge over Nishikori for the last time they met in a hard court grand slam quarterfinal.
2. KEI NISHIKORI JPN...Nishikori does own the head to head against Ferrer 6-3. He went 4-0 against Ferrer last year. He holds the upper hand, but I just don't think it is that easy. I think that fourth round is probably one of the most important in this tournament. If either player wins that they may go on a tear and make the final. It feels weird to say this but this slam could possibly define the year these players have, although I think that refers particularly to Ferrer. He has to make the quarters here (2012), but Kei has to do some work to get there. He gets Almagro up first. He then gets Souza or Dodig. I think he will lose a set or two in those first two matches. Giraldo and Johnson are also hanging around here, but if he gets past Almagro he makes the fourth round.
3. DAVID FERRER ESP...Ferrer needs to make a run here. He turns 33 in three months. Despite being a late bloomer [that 2007 season was still excellent, but he hadn't fully bloomed then] I think he has had a fantastic career. He has been to three in the world and had a slam final. Andres Gomez lost to a nobody at the 1992 Australian Open. He, like Ferrer, had a slew of titles and a French Open final, although Gomez won his. But not two years removed from his greatest triumph, he lost in the first to a Finnish qualifier and never played at the Australian Open again. Could the same fate befall Ferru? Ferrer has Bellucci followed by Stakhovsky or Lajovic. Simon might be waiting in the third round. That draw should not be a problem for Ferrer. Where to go from here if he crashes out early is a problem.
DARK HORSE: ALEXANDR DOLGOPOLOV UKR....He should ease past Lorenzi and then he gets to play the winner of Pospisil and Querrey. The difference for me is that Dolgopolov has more dimensions than either of those players. He and Fognini will play a match I both want to and don't want to watch.
WILD HORSE: FABIO FOGNINI ITA...He at least has an easy draw. He should sneak through on back courts unnoticed by people, which is for the best really.
DONKEY: GILLES SIMON FRA...I don't know how Simon is seeded 18th, but it won't last. He may win a couple of matches but I think it will be another disappointing tournament for him.
UNLUCKY HORSE: KEI NISHIKORI JPN ...He drew Almagro in the first round. That is a seriously unlucky draw for the talented top ten star.
=In the End...=
I place my faith in Wawrinka once more. I think he has the consistency to do well here. I think Ferrer has regained enough form to be able to deal with Nishikori, especially because Ferrer is going to win if it goes to four sets or more in that baking Melbourne heat.

WAWRINKA D. FOGNINI
FERRER D. NISHIKORI
-
WAWRINKA D. FERRER

=NADAL QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. TOMAS BERDYCH CZE...I don't think Berdych is better than Nadal, but I think he might finally beat him now. Rafa looks vulnerable. He is looking for his fourth straight quarterfinal here. He has won just won previously, and that was last year. He loves this tournament. To get to his match with Nadal he has to go through some tests first of all. He has to get past Falla and Burgos in his first two rounds. That will not be easy, but he shouldn't be troubled. Mayer or Troicki are trickier propositions and one of them may well be waiting for the Czech veteran in the third round. On a bad day that goes four. On a good day Berdych doesn't break a sweat. Really, who knows who makes it to the fourth round in this section? It is anchored by Gulbis.
2. RAFAEL NADAL ESP...This is by default really. Why does Nadal ALWAYS end up in Federer's section. It's not funny anymore. It's not intriguing anymore. Nadal will struggle throughout before demolishing Roger for no apparent reason in the semi-final. We have seen it before and I would like for Nadal to just be in the other half. Please tennis gods, just once? But enough of my moaning. Nadal is second here because there are only two big players in this quarter. I don't trust Nadal's fitness, form or his desire. It's not on clay, either. Nadal opens with Youzhny before facing Saville or a qualifier. Saville is a junior Wimbledon champion, don't forget. Then Rosol in the third round. He then gets a really easy fourth round against Anderson or Gasquet. Not easy, but easy for Nadal. He never loses to Berdych, but I feel he is here for the taking.
DARK HORSE: RICHARD GASQUET FRA...Richard rides again! Gasquet is back and has a workable draw. He has Berlocq and then probably Kavcic. After that he and Anderson play for the right to lose to Berdych -- he owns both of them. I think Gasquet makes a run here and kicks off another good year. I also think if the planets align themselves he could make the semi-finals. That almost definitely won't happen but he should still win three matches in Melbourne.
WILD HORSE: ERNESTS GULBIS LAT...Perennially a wild horse pick, the fact he is seeded eleventh is a major achievement within itself. I do not see him doing much here, but he can beat Nadal. He can beat Berdych. He just needs to put it all together.
DONKEY: PHILIPP KOHLSCHREIBER GER...Seeded 23 at the Aussie, he wasn't expected to make a big splash and it doesn't look as though he will. Tomic looms and I don't think he can beat the Aussie down under.
UNLUCKY HORSE: MIKHAIL YOUZHNY RUS...He has made a quarterfinal here before (2008) and has also made two US Open semi-finals. He is a good player, but he has drawn Nadal. Poor bloke.
=In the End...=
Gasquet beats Anderson and Tomic plays the role of Cinderella. Nadal and Berdych are the big boys here and they eventually say enough is enough. Nadal's fitness, or lack thereof, has to eventually catch up with him. I say Berdych outmuscles him and makes a second consecutive semi-final here.

BERDYCH D. TOMIC
NADAL D.GASQUET
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BERDYCH D. NADAL

=FEDERER QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. ROGER FEDERER SUI...Please. This is a nice draw for Federer. A little testing, but not too strenuous. Federer always makes the semi-finals here. Melbourne and London are the places where he is always at his most consistent. On clay he struggles offensively and on hard he struggles defensively. But on grass he doesn't need to defend because he can be so aggressive. At the Australian Open he has plenty of chances to defend and offend. His transition is second to none. Lu is up first for Roger. This could be tricky but Federer should ease through. The same goes for his next match vs. the winner of Bolelli and Monaco. Federer gave Monaco the works at the U.S. Open a few years back. He will do the same thing here. Chardy, Coric or Seppi await in the third round. Federer will not be overly tested there. Robredo or possibly Karlovic should be waiting in the next round. Dr. Ivo could be very dangerous, but Federer can negate his weapons. Neither Murray nor Dimitrov should do more than irritate Federer for a bit. Federer will add to his legacy here.
2T. GRIGOR DIMITROV BUL...vs. Brown, Lacko and Goffin. Those would be good exciting matches to see. I think Dimitrov and Murray are the clear favorites to go on to the fourth round.
2T. ANDY MURRAY GBR...Murray has a qualifier, Matosevic and Klizan. Really, it comes down to Dimitrov/Murray this whole section.
DARK HORSE: TOMMY ROBREDO ESP...Five quarterfinals at the French and one each at the hard court slams. Who says he can't do it again?
WILD HORSE: NICK KYRGIOS AUS...He has a winnable draw and I think he will take advantage of that. It may be he gets so red hot only Federer can stop him. I do think he will give the Aussies something to cheer about.
DONKEY: MARCOS BAGHDATIS CYP...What are the odds on another final run, nine years after the first? Baghdatis and Hewitt shared an epic five setter in 2008, one of the greatest Aussie Open matches of the decade and the latest ever finish. Sadly both players are in the twilights of their careers and Baghdatis looks set for another disappointing tournament.
UNLUCKY HORSE: FEDERICO DELBONIS ARG...This is not the French crowd, but it is a crowd that looks after its own. Do not think even for a second the Australian crowd isn't going to back its local home grown hero to the hilt and beyond. Delbonis is never going to feel as lonely as he will on that court vs. Kyrgios.
=In the End...=
Federer reigns supreme and remains on cruise control throughout. He always makes the semi-finals and Dimitrov is still too young to challenge whilst Murray's time has been and gone. Over five sets there is nobody here in this quarter who can handle the GOAT.

MURRAY D. DIMITROV
FEDERER D. KYRGIOS
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FEDERER D. MURRAY [at night on RLA]

=SEMIFINAL=
#1 DJOKOVIC D. WAWRINKA #4
#2 FEDERER D. BERDYCH #7

=FINAL=
#2 FEDERER D. #1 DJOKOVIC

...Yep. I'm calling it. Federer will take another step towards reclaiming the number one spot. After a titanic tussle in the semi-finals with Wawrinka, Djokovic cannot handle Federer.



Here are some pairs who I think will do well at the Aussie this year:

Women's Doubles
? Hsieh Su-wei / Sania Mirza
? Sara Errani / Roberta Vinci
? Martina Hingis/ Flavia Pennetta
? Kimiko Date-Krumm/Casey Dellacqua
Men’s Doubles
? Bob Bryan / Mike Bryan
? Alexander Peya / Bruno Soares
? Daniel Nestor /Rohan Bopanna
? Julien Benneteau / Edouard Roger-Vasselin



*WOMEN*
=ROUND OF 16 PREDICTIONS=
#1 Serena d. #15 Jankovic
Azarenka d. #11 Cibulkova
#4 Kvitova d. #20 Stosur
#6 Radwanska d. #18 Venus
#10 Makarova d. #5 Ivanovic
#3 Halep d. #23 Pavlyuchenkova
#27 Kuznetsova d. #9 Kerber
#2 Sharapova d. #21 Peng

...Zvonareva lurks for Serena, as does Svitolina. Muguruza could disrupt but I'm liking Serena here. Azarenka beats Sloane and then Wozniacki in three very tight sets. She then rolls to the quarterfinals. Cibulkova has two very hard matches to open with. Taylor Townsend is a horrible opening draw for the Woz. I like Stosur to make the fourth round but I seem to pick that every year. She has Schiavone looming, which could be tricky. Kvitova should cruise here, especially considering Dellacqua has been struggling. Venus should do well here and I like her over Pennetta. Radwanska should have too much craft for the vet, though.

No, it makes no sense. Why else would I pick it? Vinci and Hercog are also here. Tune into #32 Bencic/Goerges, who play in round one. That should be fantastic. A-pavs is a better player than Errani right now and I think she makes the fourth round, but Halep survives Gajdasova and Lisicki and has too much for the streaky, exciting Russian. Bouchard is a big question mark right now and Kuznetsova has two winnable matches [Garcia won't trouble here] so I like Sveta to make the fourth round. Frankly, I'm liking her to beat Kerber in that fourth round match if the German gets there. This last section is a reenactment of "Jaws." Sharapova is playing the shark. She might lose her serve her once or twice. And the rest of this quarter is just a hot mess. So out of the ashes comes Peng Shuai.

=QUARTERFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#1 Serena d. # Azarenka
#6 Radwanska d. #4 Kvitova
#3 Halep d. #10 Makarova
#2 Sharapova d. #27 Kuznetsova

...Azarenka runs out of steam and I just hope she isn't blown away here. I don't trust Kvitova. I wouldn't trust Kvitova to even make the third round let alone the semi-final. Also, Radwanksa knows how to deal with certain kinds of big hitters. Makarova makes her fifth consecutive fourth round here [11-15] and wins it, but can't handle the sheer consistency of Halep. Kuznetsova goes 0-4 in Australian Open quarterfinals.

=SEMIFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#1 Serena d. #6 Radwanska
#2 Sharapova d. #3 Halep

...I have a nasty feeling Serena will get upset early and all my predictions will therefore look rubbish. But I say she rips through Radwanska here whilst Sharapova again beats Halep. Halep hasn't figured Maria out yet.

=FINAL PREDICTION=
#1 Serena d. #2 Sharapova

...I think Sharapova can take this to three. But she can't take the trophy home.


Anyway, all and visit WTA BACKSPIN. They have nachos.

I'll be seeing you all soon and far too frequently for your liking.

Galileo.

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