Wk.13- Sic semper erat, et sic semper erit

Hey Y'all. Galileo here.

['Twas ever thus and ever thus shall be.]

The clay swing has started up and now the Spaniards all come out of the woodwork. They wait eagerly for when the hard courts give way to their beloved clay. Then they play on the grass, collecting free checks and making up the numbers [not you Deliciano] before gratefully returning back to clay. Alas, after that it is to the hard courts they must return.

This week's case study of the "Spanish Effect" is Sergi Bruguera. He made the fourth round at all the non-clay slams and won a silver medal. In finals, he is 1-3 on hard and 0-2 on carpet. He has no grass finals. On the dirt he is 13-16 in the finals. On clay overall he has a record of 296-135 [.687], which is a bit more than half of his 447-271 career record. He reached world number three.

And the reason for that is he won two French Opens. He won in 1993-94. He, like so many Spaniards, could play just fine everywhere else but it was clay where he truly belonged. Sic semper erat, et sic semper erit.

Ferrer, Granollers, Ferrero, Nadal, Moya and many other Spaniards have performed well and consistently well off the dirt. And yet, they always did best on the it. In much the same way that Pittsburgh has a loveable baseball team right now and a hateable hockey team always, it will be forever a football town.

Spanish Australian Open winners [Open Era]: One
Spanish French Open winners: Six
Spanish Wimbledon winners: One
Spanish US Open winners: Two

The contrast would be even greater were it not for Rafa. But enough of that. What happened in the second week of Miami?

=Round Four=
...Djokovic was a point away from going down a set and a double break. That is now irrelevant. He beat Dolgopolov 6-7[3], 7-5, 6-0. Dolgopolov may well have collapsed, but Djokovic put that doubt in his mind. Djokovic pulled off another stunning victory and would advance to another Masters quarter. Awaiting him there would be Ferrer. He beat Simon 7-6[5], 6-0. It was utterly relentless. Ferrer was not letting his quarry go. Simon fought well but once Ferrer got the first set, the Frenchman's task became Herculean. One break became two and two became three. Ferru used his return of serve to great effect, too. Nishikori demolished Goffin 6-1, 6-2. Kei played Youzhny, Tipsarevic and Goffin. He lost ten games. Isner and Raonic decided to serve really hard for three hours. The result? Isner won in three breakers 3-7, 8-6, 7-5. Nobody said our sport had to be interesting. It's not in the rule book. Isner finally started to look like the real deal. Thiem made his maiden Masters quarter with 7-6, 4-6, 7-5 victory over Mannarino. The Frenchman has never been to a quarter at this level, either. Thiem rose nine place to 43 in the world. His highest ranking is 36. Here's a bold Backspin prediction: Thiem is a seed at the U.S. Open, but not the lowest seed. Anderson lost to Murray 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. Murray, seeded third, had a lot to lose here whilst Anderson could swing freely. Seeded 15, the South African should have been five times worse than Murray. Yet again he acquitted himself brilliantly. Yet again Murray had too much. Monfils retired and sent Berdych through. Ferver has disappointed us all. He went down very quietly to Monaco 6-3, 6-3. Some things never change.
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=Quarters=
...Ferrer cannot ace his way through matches. Ferrer does not have Gasquet's backhand or Tsonga's forehand. He has a good return and he does not miss. He has a solid serve. He knows how to grind. He is the little Spaniard that could.



It is not enough to simply grind and not miss against Djokovic. The reason Djokovic still struggles to beat Federer is because Federer can attack in many ways. It's why Djokovic struggles against Dolgopolov. Ferrer lacks the variety and in particular the slice to fully disrupt the Djoker. Novak moved through 7-5, 7-5. Isner produced the performance of the round in his 6-4, 6-3 victory over Kei. Kei could not get a read on the serve. Isner used his forehand to good effect in this match. It also means we get to use this picture:



Murray is the master of winning matches he has no right to. Thiem was the better player in this match and Murray should never have won but he did. The Scot took it 3-6, 6-4, 6-1. He was the worse player but still scraped through against the rising star. Ah yes, the other quarterfinal. Berdych held off Monaco 6-3, 6-4. No fuss and no drama. It's just the way Tomas likes it. One day Thiem will make the final here. He can look back on his journey here and know he can do it. He will know he can win it all.
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=Semi-finals=
...Anybody can make a Masters semi-final with a bit of luck and a big serve. Ljubicic went all the way back in 2010. Blake had a good record at the Masters level. Nalbandian won Shanghai and Madrid back to back, beating Nadal and Federer in both of those. That was only last decade and he didn't even have a big serve. Isner is the quintessential big server and he knows how to beat Novak. He has done it before. Isner played his game but it would not be enough. Isner could not have done any more than he did. Djokovic just returned and served like a world number one should. He pressured Isner early and often, forcing the big man out of his comfort zone. Isner served a few aces but he could not find anything on Djokovic's service games consistently enough. Djokovic never looked troubled as he won 7-6[3], 6-2. Berdych can beat Murray. At the start of the year he said his goals were to actually beat the big guys. He said he wanted to finally get past these kinda guys. Like all New Year's resolutions, he has not stuck to it. He played the guy not good enough to beat any of the top three and lost tamely 6-4, 6-4. Berdych has improved his game a lot, especially in the second serve department, but he just struggled to get a foothold in the match. He struggled to stamp his authority on Murray. Murray last beat Nadal in 2011. He has lost seven on the bounce to Djokovic, taking just one set. It's been two and a half years since he last beat Federer, who is old. And that is the guy Berdych couldn't beat. It would be another Murray/Djokovic final. It would also be a match with a short highlight reel. Unless, of course, your thing is a series of very long, very repetitive rallies where two players with near identical games try and out-grind one another.
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=Final=
...What the ATP tour needs is chaos. It needs the chaos it had for six glorious years from 1998 to 2004. Guys like Pat Rafter could nick a slam and a few Masters. Federer had his years of dominance. Fedal took over, before Fedalovic became a thing. Murray how now made it very difficult for anybody to break the quartet. Nobody has yet to play the role of Yoko successfully. Novak won Miami [again] in style 7-6[3], 4-6, 6-0. Murray has the tendencies to just fade away in matches. As a top five player it is not acceptable to lose a set 6-0. Djokovic snatched all the momentum away from Murray after being broken to love serving to stay in the second set. Djokovic ground his way to 2-0 and after that Murray folded like a piece of card at an origami workshop. Murray has said he needs to solve the Djokovic problem. It shouldn't be this way, but right now Murray is being outclassed by Djokovic. Djokovic is outclassing everyone. Well, almost everyone.



Murray rises to world number three. Nadal is down at five. Federer and Djokovic are sitting very pretty at 2 and 1. Could Nadal be on the decline? The answer will come in the clay season. If Nadal wins only one Masters title and the French Open, then yes. Nadal will win the French Open. As certainly as Hillary will declare, as certainly as the Nationals will win 100 games, Nadal will win the French Open. The question now is how many more slams for Murray and Nadal.

The most likely answer, if you were to combine their totals is somewhere between 1-3. Of course, that is dependent on injuries. How different would tennis, and indeed other sports, be if injuries did not occur?


*CASABLANCA, MOROCCO*
=SF=
Garcia-Lopez[1] d. Youzhny
Granollers [4] d. [WC] Almagro
=FINAL=
GGL [1] d. [4] Almagro

...When the second seed is world number 41 and the top seed has never visited a slam quarterfinal, you have yourself a wide open tournament. The fourth seed is last year's beaten finalist, but being the defending champ gives one special motivation.

*HOUSTON, TEXAS*
=SF=
Lopez [1] d. [4] Isner
Bautista-Agut [2] d. [3] Anderson
=FINAL=
Lopez [1] d. [2] Bautista-Agut

...Verdasco won it last year. Another attractive Spaniard with a big serve and forehand will take it this year. There's just something about clay and Spaniards.



Casey Dellacqua will play on the green clay. She and her partner Durak have been drawn ominously close to the second seeds Kops-Jones/Spears but have to beat Klepac/Soler-Espinosa first. In singles, Dellacqua has already lost in the 1st Round to #12 seed Bencic 6-1/6-2.

Here she at the Open Drive from back in January.



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