Australian Open Preview: Predicting the Unpredictable

Hi All.

As I write this I have just waited five hours in Dallas/Fort Worth for a plane back into my beloved New England. Plane delays are just awful. Fortunately the football was on and, also fortunately, this blog is not about my life and times. And aren’t we all grateful. So here we go again. Another slam, another round of predictions. Because this is likely to drag on past the point of politeness like a foreign film, let’s skip the bread course and go straight to the wine which, in this case, is talking about doubles. Are you ready? Good, then I’ll begin.

As of this writing, we do not have the luxury of the doubles draws being released. So, let's have a look at seedings.

=Ladies' Doubles=
Hingis/Mirza [1] are going to win. They are going to decimate all before them. 2nd seeds Chan Hao-Ching and Yung-Jan will also make a run and so will third seeds Mladenovic/Garcia. Ladies doubles is finally starting to find some order. Hlavackova/Hradecka at #7 are always dangerous and nobody will want them close by in the draw. Shvedova has stayed Australian with her partner choice. She and Stosur [11] are huge wildcards here. They will crash and burn or make the world turn. Both have made ladies doubles finals here. Congrats to Raquel Atawo. She got married in the offseason.
=Men's Doubles=
Rojer/Tecau [1] and Dodig/Melo [2] should both prove their new rankings are no fluke. Bryan/Bryan [3] have not been seeded this low in some time and they are facing a ‘prove it’ year. Could retirement be beckoning? Bolelli/Fognini and Herbert/Mahut will provide some spiciness. Pospisil/Sock at #9 are the big jokers here.

*Suicide Picks*
[MS] Dimitrov [27] d. P. Lorenzo
[WS] Gavrilova d. Hradecka

Now, finally on to the singles....

=DJOKOVIC QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. NOVAK DJOKOVIC, SRB
...Here we go again. Djokovic opens with Chung and that will be tight. The fearless youngster, sporting a funny pair of glasses will push the top seed. He has nothing to lose and he can give the ball an almighty whack. The key should be Novak’s return. It’s a difference maker, especially against an inexperienced opponent. Dodig and Seppi await. Gabashvili had a great Sydney tournament, too. Simon could be a fourth round opponent. Realistically, Novak is a lock to make it through to the quarters at least. The Serb won in Doha. He dominated the field. He is fitter than ever and has lost once in the last four slams. He will barely lose sets and I see few players in the field capable of beating him. Nadal is no longer on that list.
2. JO-WILFRIED TSONGA, FRA
...The Frenchy made his first ever final and he has had a great history here, better even than at Wimbledon. The key for Jo is momentum. He can beat anybody on his day. Paire the 17th seed does lurk and that third round battle should be a classic night match kind of affair. Nishikori has really not had a good time of it at the slams recently. Tsonga is capable of simply outmuscling him. The key for Jo is getting the forehand to be consistent and making sure his backhand stays at a high level. His net-play will help him here as it has always done.
3. KEI NISHIKORI, JPN
...BACKSPIN has previously lived to regret underestimating the Asian number one. He opens with Kohlschreiber and Garcia-Lopez also looms. On this surface the Spaniard is less dangerous but the German has had some memorable upsets here. It is a dangerous path and I think Tsonga is better than Kei right now. He will, as always, fly under the radar a little bit. This is at least a home slam for him being the slam of Asia-Pacific.
DARK HORSE: BENOIT PAIRE, FRA
...He has found some consistency and if he can beat Tsonga he has a great shot at the quarters. But can he keep it all together mentally and in his game for long enough? With Andujar a possible second round opponent, tests are coming sooner rather than later.
WILDCARD: IVO KARLOVIC, CRO
...That serve alone disrupts whole draws and can test anybody. The consistency of Simon should be enough to survive the beast. But you just never know and he has seeding protection for a while here.
EARLY EXIT: ANDREAS SEPPI, ITA
...He could lose to the Russian first off or he could go down to Kudla in the next round. Either way he is in trouble with this unfriendly draw. The Italian can grind out tough matches but youth is no longer on his side. Can his fitness hold up?
POOR GUY: HYEON CHUNG, KOR
...It is a baptism of fire for the South Korean. One day, however, we may be saying the same thing about a player who has to play him. Djokovic will win this and it could get ugly if Chung can’t stay positive.

=In the End...=
DJOKOVIC D. SIMON
TSONGA D. NISHIKORI
--
DJOKOVIC D. TSONGA

=FEDERER QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. ROGER FEDERER, SUI
...Basilashvili first up is no problem. Neither Dolgopolov nor Berankis have enough to push Federer over five and Dimitrov never quite gets over the hill against Federer. The draw is no cake-walk, however. Federer will lose a set or two here and Dolgopolov will throw a whole toolbox in the works. The main issue for Federer is that he got Djokovic in his half. He would not have wanted that, especially given his record in Australian Open semi-finals against the Serb. He will be Roger Federer just like he always has been but this time with ‘SABR’. Is there anything else to write about the GOAT?
2. TOMAS BERDYCH, CZE
...He has a great previous record here but he got an awful draw. He got the big hitters section and he is not happy about it I bet. Kyrgios has an easy path to the third round as does Berdych. Their match will be under the lights and it will be interesting to see if the Czech can hold off both Kyrgios and the crowd. His second serve will be crucial because it is a slight chink in the armour. Kyrgios can also expose his movement. Waiting to pick up the pieces should they exhaust each other will be probably Cilic. If Berdych can make it through that gauntlet he gets Federer. Haase is Berdman’s second opponent and he could take a set, too. But Berdych is still the safe pick surely?
3. DAVID GOFFIN, BEL
...Sitting at #15, which is about right, he could easily make a run to the quarters, knocking off Fed in the process. Thiem and Edmund are likely opponents who could test him. He opens with Stakhovsky, too, which spells potential trouble. Overall though, this is manageable and you would expect the Belgian to come through here without too much trouble if he can beat Thiem, who likely awaits in the third.
DARK HORSE: DOMINIC THIEM, AUT
...He was so close to having a safe passage to the fourth round but instead must face off against Goffin. How will he hold up in a five set war is the big question. If he can physically stay on top he should be able to topple Goffin. That match is hard to call because both are very talented and also on form. Thiem has more ways of hurting you and also has excellent variety.
WILDCARD: NICK KYRGIOS, AUS
...Mentally he is sounder than Berdych. Sounds crazy but Nick doesn’t choke in the same way Berdych does. I feel I don’t need to justify my selection for wildcard here.
EARLY EXIT: MARIN CILIC, CRO
...Marin has really lost it recently. De Bakker in the first could beat him. Coric could do it the next round. Querrey or Agut lurk. I just don’t trust Cilic at all and especially outside of the last two slams.
POOR GUY: TOMAS BERDYCH, CZE
...His is the kind of draw that seems impossible until you see it written down. I hope he has his cape and suit at the ready. He will need to be super to get through this section.

=In the End...=
FEDERER D. THIEM
KYRGIOS D. BAUTISTA-AGUT
--
FEDERER D. KYRGIOS

=WAWRINKA QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. STAN WAWRINKA, SUI
...The player formerly known as Stanislaus is back and is ready to do some more damage. He will have several tough tests to begin with. Tursunov and Stepanek are both up in the first two rounds. Stan may lose a set but being pushed to a breaker or two is far more likely. Sock in the third round and Raonic in the fourth are more worrisome, but Wawrinka would have taken this draw with all four limbs had he been offered it before the slam. The key is the forehand and netplay. He has to keep his volleys at a high standard and go for it on the forehand when he can. That forehand is a key shot for him. When it is on fire he is so much more dangerous. Nadal is unlikely to advance further than the fourth so he is almost guaranteed a semi spot if he can win that match with Raonic.
2. MILOS RAONIC, CAN
...Having a good first serve percentage is what’s important for the Canadian. The second serve is fine but it does not give him the amount of free points the first serve does. For him it is simple. Beat Stan and he is golden. Pouille and Robredo my test him but he is better than them right at this moment. Troicki is a recent titlist but Raonic should be able to navigate those treacherous waters, too.
3. KEVIN ANDERSON, RSA
...This is far-fetched, but with only a possibly fit Monfils hanging around, Africa’s best player has an easy ride to the fourth round. Nadal may not even make it that far. And if the stars align themselves he could be in the semi-finals. He had a great U.S. Open. Who says it can’t happen again?
DARK HORSE: GAEL MONFILS, FRA
...Seeded 23rd he has a chance to slow his fall from grace. With Anderson the only road block between him and Nadal, Monfils is in with at least a shout if not a roar. Can he hold everything together for a long stretch? He has done it before but what about this time?.
WILDCARD: ERNESTS GULBIS, LAT
...One of those ones where no explanation is necessary.
EARLY EXIT: RAFAEL NADAL, ESP
...He opens with Verdasco. The problem for Nadal is grinding through five set matches just takes its toll eventually. After a rematch of that 2009 classic, either Gulbis or Chardy will be waiting for Rafa in the third round. I just don’t see Nadal grinding through three matches then beating a big server like Anderson. I have no clue why Nadal is still hanging around. Perhaps for the Olympics? Or one last title in Paris?
POOR GUY: JEREMY CHARDY, FRA
...Would you want to draw Ernests Gulbis? Anywhere? How about at a slam? How about in the first round? I thought now Chardy has his work cut out for him. He could try being solid and letting the Latvian impale himself. That tactic can work but it can also backfire massively.

=In the End...=
ANDERSON D. NADAL
WAWRINKA D. RAONIC
--
WAWRINKA D. ANDERSON

=MURRAY QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. ANDY MURRAY, GBR
...There is no way Murray doesn’t make the semi-finals. This is one of the softest sections I have ever seen. Seeded second, one of the things on the Scot’s mind will be his heavily pregnant girl back home. Should she give birth he would have to withdraw. Be a bit awkward if she went into labour right before the final. The other thing about this softer section is it does not prepare him for the tougher tests ahead. It will be a baptism of fire going up such a big jump. Murray has Zverev and then Groth or Mannarino to open with. Not easy but Murray should come through those tests relatively unscathed. Sousa is next and then Tomic or Fognini. It could well be Young or Kukushkin, not Sousa, Murray meets in the third, however. Murray will cruise to the quarters, possibly dropping a set to Bernie, where he should meet Ferrer. But will he?
2 BERNARD TOMIC, AUS
...Isner and Ferrer are both hanging around above and both are dangerous. But neither have Tomic’s support base, form or rise of play in Australia. Bernie plays at a higher level here and a higher level of play than 16 is quite dizzying. Fognini versus Tomic will be one to watch but I think Tomic is all but a lock to get to the fourth. Istomin and possibly Brian Baker are his opening opponents. It is good to see Baker back. Istomin may push Bernard a little but not too far. The key for Bernard is to keep that forehand under wraps. He has to control it just like he has been doing. Oh and don’t do anything stupid on or off court.
3. LLEYTON HEWITT, AUS
...Yep. Dream section for the Aussie. Duckworth and then probably Ferrer. I say Hewitt beats Ferrer and then 31st seed Johnson to make the fourth. If Isner even gets there, Hewitt wins in four to make the quarter-finals one last time. Can’t you just see it happening? This BACKSPINNER sure can and why not call it? This is the last opportunity to make such an outrageous prediction.
DARK HORSE: JOHN ISNER, USA
...Isner will one day not disappoint us. Perhaps it is today. He should beat Lopez in the third round and roll to the fourth. He has a soft section to work with and a semi-final is not out of the question entirely. John should be able to make it happen. It’s the right surface and just once I’d like not to sigh. I always end up sighing at some inexplicable five set loss to a guy without a big serve ranked forty places below Isner.
WILDCARD: JERZY JANOWICZ, POL
...Another no-brainer. Is there anybody wilder? The crazy Pole could have an absolute ball here. He and Isner are going to serve up a storm -- a storm of aces and breakers. It won’t be a joy to watch but it’s a good one to pop into every now and again.
EARLY EXIT: DAVID FERRER, ESP
...Gojowczyk has matches under his belt having qualified and is a good player on his day. Following that is a rough draw with former world number ones and big servers. Tricky lefties are hanging around, too. Ferru may be clinging onto the top eight with all his might but the quarterfinals may be a tad out of his reach.
POOR GUY: FABIO FOGNINI, ITA
...He has Muller in the opening round. It could be a toughie for him. How will he fare against the big lefty serve?

=In the End...=
HEWITT D. ISNER
MURRAY D. TOMIC
--
MURRAY D. HEWITT

=SEMIFINAL=
#1 DJOKOVIC D. #3 FEDERER
#4 WAWRINKA D. #2 MURRAY

=FINAL=
#1 DJOKOVIC D. #4 WAWRINKA

...Murray struggles against the Swiss. Well, both of them actually. He will beat Murray in four while Djokovic needs four to get by Roger. Look for backhand to play key roles in those semi-finals. Honestly, I cannot see Djokovic losing. It just won’t happen. Wawrinka should win a third slam this year if the pattern is to be believed. If the pattern is right it will be at Wimbledon.


*WOMEN*
=ROUND OF 16 PREDICTIONS=
#1 Williams d. #16 Wozniacki
#5 Sharapova d. #23 Kuznetsova
#24 Stephens d. #4 A.Radwanska
#10 Suarez-Navarro d. #6 Kvitova
#7 Kerber d. #11 Bacsinszky
#14 Azarenka d. #3 Muguruza
#8 V. Williams d. #21 Makarova
#2 Halep d. #15 Keys

...Williams has been waiting a long time for this moment. She has not played a serious match in months and months. Expept Hsieh and Giorgi to both take a set. She won’t lose another and I would also expect Wozniacki to be broken at least four times. Errani and Schmeidlova threaten here. A yardstick for the Slovak’s progress will be how she fares against the most fearsome of opponents.

Here is the obligatory optimistic Kuznetsova pick. This time, however, she could go all the way to the quarters. I would think, though, she beats Bencic but loses to Pova in three. Hantuchova verses Sveta will be one to watch. Heather Watson also lurks. Watching A-pavs take on Sharapova will be fascinating. Radwanska has McHale up first then Bouchard and Stosur or Puig lurking. Then she has Vinci, who beat her in the fourth round of the U.S. once upon a time, or Stephens. Horror draw. But I like her to navigate her way through to Stephens. But Stephens finally wins through to another slam QF against a tired Radwanska. Paszek versus Vinci has potential with its contrasting styles.

Kvitova opens with the Thai who upset her here recently. Mladenovic and Gavrilova also lie here. The Czech has rarely performed well here recently and with Petkovic a question mark, the Spaniard is the safe pick here. Brengle and Begu are Kerber’s only company in her earlier rounds. With question marks over the Swiss and Jankovic being Jankovic, the 7th seed is the safe pick. It’s a toss up between Timea and Jelena but I’ll opt for seeding. Hey, they must be there for a reason, right? Right?

Welcome back, Duval. If Svitolina can get past her then she and Azarenka are bound to meet in the third. It should be a classic. The winner of that plays Muguruza. Garcia is hanging around, too, but the third seed will go until stopped by the Belarussian. Venus opens with Konta but this draw is a good one for her. Mattek, Cetkovska and Lisicki are all unreliable and she should get through with no problems. Makarova will beat Pliskova because this slam is where she performs best and the young Czech is not proven on this stage yet. Goerges is also a potential trip wire for the 9th seeded Czech. They could meet in the second round. Keys has Diyas up first and then either Shvedova or Pironkova. After that Ivanovic could be waiting. I still think Keys has a run in her. It ends in the fourth at Halep’s hands. Cornet and Tsurenko or Lepchenko are the only threats Halep has until Keys. If Keys makes it there, of course. Simona will roll to the quarters.

=QUARTERFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#1 Williams d. #5 Sharapova
#10 Suarez-Navarro d. #24 Stephens
#14 Azarenka d. #7 Kerber
#2 Halep d. #8 Venus

...In the first quarter- oh blow it. There’s no point. Let’s just move on to a one-hander. Stephens finally runs out of steam as CSN has too much craft for the 24th seed. The Spaniard has experience in the later stages of slams and puts it to use here. If you go by the seedings, Azarenka is half as good as Kerber. In reality the former number one rekindles her Melbourne magic this year. Remember Kerber’s left crosscourt goes into Azarenka’s strength. Venus hits all the best shots, plays the best tennis but cannot find the consistency to break down the wall.

=SEMIFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#1 Williams d. #10 Suarez-Navarro
#14 Azarenka d. #2 Halep

...Predictable again, I’m afraid. Williams has far too much for the just-happy-to-be-there Spaniard. I hope it won’t be a rout but it may well be. Azarenka’s run continues, winning a match that will be remembered for a long while.

=FINAL PREDICTION=
#1 Williams d. #14 Azarenka

...Azarenka plays a great match but goes down in three sets, succumbing to the sheer unrelenting aggressive firepower of the young Williams. But there are signs that a changing of the guard could be coming in what may be Serena’s last Australian Open.

Anyway, thanks all and visit WTA BACKSPIN -- they’ve just got the BBQ going!

I'll be seeing you all soon and far too frequently for your liking.

Galileo.

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