Tuesday, May 03, 2016

Wk.17- All About Almagro


Hey, all. Galileo here.

The name is Almagro. Nicolas Almagro.



The points don’t come so easy anymore. The matches aren’t so easily won. Everything is just that little bit harder, but the talent and the desire is still there. His most underrated asset is his variety. In his heyday it matched that of Federer. A perennial top ten player, he was renowned for getting all his points in February and in the European spring before disappearing, re-emerging here and there with a semi-final appearance.

His career moment came up two sets against Ferrer in the quarterfinals of the 2013 Australian Open. The former world number nine crumbled and after that so did his career. Thrice denied in the fourth round from ’10-’12, once by Berdych in a fiery encounter, it looked like his time had come. But he lost the last three sets and then his career collapsed. He has just won his first title since 2012, having lost five finals in a row. Owning a 13-10 record in finals, all on the same surface, the Spaniard has made the quarterfinals of the French three times. All three times he ran into Nadal. Like most Spaniards, Ferrer especially, he cannot beat Nadal unless Rafa is completely off his game.

There have been murmurs of a comeback from Almags as of late. He still has a good chunk of the clay season left and could prove to be a very dangerous mine in the draw. Like Dimitrov, he is ranked lower than his talent indicates he should be. There are others on the tour who will cause damage. Look out for Kyrgios and Tomic at Wimbledon.

And speaking of Kyrgios, we had some great young gun action this week. Coric, Kyrgios, Thiem and Zverev will all play a part in the fabric of the ATP in the future. But a generation ago, we marked out Federer, Nalbandian, Roddick and Malisse. Those four were the guys, the guys to make big moves. Federer aside, the other three combined won a single slam and had no finals at two of the slams. So be careful when tagging players for greatness. Nishikori has severely underperformed when compared to expectations.

But it would be accurate to imagine that one of those four will rise to greatness. Right now it looks like Thiem or Kyrgios could win multiple slams. Heck, Kyrgios could win a slam this year. Still, keep an eye on those four.

Well, let’s get on with it, shall we?....

=RANKINGS WATCH=
Top 32 - Johnson holds at 32, Fognini and Karlovic swap to sit at 31 and 30, respectively. Dimitrov has risen to 28, and is safe from falling out of the top 32 barring disastrous appearances in the Masters.
Top 10 – Gasquet falls to 12 and could fall further. Cilic rises without having done anything, so nothing new there. Raonic is back in the top ten after a lengthy-ish absence from it.
Top 8 – No change. Ferrer at 9, below Tsonga and Berdych. Nishikori locked in at six.
Top 4 – Little change. Nadal is advancing on Wawrinka. To have a shot at defending the French he will need that fourth seed. Murray has massive points to defend. Crash out early and Fed rises to number two. Djokovic typically unassailable.

*WEEK 17 CHAMPIONS*
ESTORIL, PORTUGAL
S: Nicolas Almagro def. Pablo Carreno Busta 6-7(6)/7-6(5)/6-3
D: Butorac/Lipsky d. Kubot/Matkowski
ISTANBUL, TURKEY
S: Diego Schwartzman def. Grigor Dimitrov 6-7(5)/7-6(4)/6-0
D: Cipolla/Sela d. Molteni/Schwartzman
MUNICH, GERMANY
S: Philipp Kohlschreiber def. Dominic Thiem 7-6(7)/4-6/7-6(4)
D: Kontinen/Peers d. Cabal/Farah



PLAYER OF THE WEEK: PHILIPP KOHLSCHREIBER
...He is a Munich, well Augsburg, native and that makes this particular tournament special, a one-off. Kohl will always turn up here, always play his best. Your home tournament is like a week of Davis Cup. Some, like my Evonne or Tsonga, thrive off the atmosphere. They can always go one round further because of the crowd. Yet it is still understandable why the likes of Stosur and Mauresmo struggle. For Kohl, however, winning his third title here was special. He opened with notoriously tricky compatriot Mayer but swept him aside in straight sets. He then breezed past Delpo 4 and 1 to make the semis. Having lost just five games in his two matches thus far, he rolled past Fognini 6-4, 6-1 to make the final. And there he edged Thiem in three hours in a third set breaker. He suffered heartbreak in a third set breaker in last year’s final, but this year he was the one doing the inflicting. Aside from two finals in New Zealand, all his finals have come in Germany, Austria or France. He has made four finals in Munich since 2012, going 2-2 which gives him a mark of 3-2 in Munich finals. He makes it three years in a row winning a title and the talented German also happens to have won a title across the three major court surfaces. It is a rare thing to have titled on all three surfaces and yet only go to one slam quarterfinal. How will Kohl do at the upcoming slams with so few points to defend and nothing to lose?
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RISER: NICOLAS ALMAGRO
...The Spaniard has a love affair, an affinity if you will, with this surface. In the natural world some animals can only live in a really specific place. Almagro really only lives on outdoor clay. Sometimes he can win on indoor clay, but it is outdoor where he thrives, where he makes his living. It is on those dusty, open to the seasons courts where he is most dangerous. Almags lives just 900 km away. He is on the opposite coast. It helps if you think of Gibraltar as the mid-point. So close to home, comparatively, it is no wonder he won. He eased past Silva and then beat Silva’s compatriot Sousa in three to make it to the quarters. There he dismissed Mayer 6-4, 7-6[5]. In one of his most impressive displays this year he knocked off last year’s finalist and second seed Kyrgios 6-3, 7-5. He came back from the dead in the final to win in three hours and seal a very impressive result. Now it’s onto Madrid and real home soil. Luckily that is only 400 km away from home. Perhaps a visit on the way?
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FRESH FACE: DIEGO SCHWARTZMAN
...With a straight sets win over top seeded Tomic and three successive come from behind wins, Diego Schwartzman has proved he is the real deal. Ranked 62, he is a mere five spots behind his highest ever ranking. A solid performance in Madrid would do it. Diego has never even won a doubles title, though he has made two finals, but he still managed to come back and take out Dimitrov. Aged just 23, there is still a lot of time for the diminutive grinder to make some real noise on clay. He already has wins at grand slam level. It’s good to see him make noise at this level now, too.

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VETERAN: GILLES SIMON
...Simon is old. It comes to us all eventually. Top seeded in Estoril, the warning signs were there in a three set win over Mathieu. But the tame 6-3, 6-4 loss to Busta was a little embarrassing. The Frenchman had such a workable draw and one more collapsed. Has that Australian Open defeat to Djokovic broken him?
=============================
SURPRISE: IVO KARLOVIC
...It was a pleasant kind of ‘oh yes’ kind of moment that greeted Karlovic’s little run. It is good he found some form - he will need to collect some points now as he made some big moves in the grass season. While it probably guarantees him Wimbledon seeding, Karlovic has a lot to defend. He also has points to defend in the summer and a fair few in the fall. Last year there was no pressure. Can he deal with plenty of it this year? In a straight sets win over Lajovic and a three set win over Granollers the forehand was working well. That is a good sign. In three matches he played six tiebreakers, going 3-3. Yep, he’s back.
.=============================
DOWN: BERNARD TOMIC
...OK, enough is enough. There are no excuses for losing to Schwartzman 2 and 2. Successive defeats on clay mean Tomic is now in a rut, a dip. Luckily the grass season is coming next month, but four weeks on the ATP tour is a long time. The Aussie needs to get his act together and soon. If he can just grind out a couple of wins in Paris and achieve his seeding, it would be quite the success. He is capable of doing it but whether or not he does remains to be seen…
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UPSET: ALEXANDER "Sascha" ZVEREV
...Zverev has now lost to Kyrgios and Thiem, though both were in three sets. But the thing to focus on is the German’s reliability. He can now achieve his seeding and put runs together. The fluke is gone, and it’s happening more and more frequently. At one of the next three hard-court slams he will be seeded. Though he was born at the other end of the country, the home support spurred him on to one of the better results of his career. He opened with a gritty three set defeat of Jaziri which he followed up with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Rosol. Then he beat top seed Goffin 6-3, 4-6, 6-3. He finally succumbed in three sets to Thiem, but the just turned 19-year old had an impressive week nonetheless. Oh, also he wants to be called Sascha now apparently.
=============================

Notes from the week...
1 - Federer withdraws again. Is he alright? He could be world number two next week but he still has major injury concerns. Perhaps he is just being careful in an Olympic year.
2 – Djokovic has not won a match here in Madrid since 2012. Will that affect him?
3 – As usual, both the top seeds in the women’s event crumble. The finalist from last year has gone, too. The WTA always seems to descend into chaos. But then that’s what you get for seeding Aga first on clay.
4 – Where is Serena?
5 – Can Mahut/Herbert win their fourth Masters in a row? If they do they will surely lock up the top seed for the French. Can Mahut finally win his home slam?
6 - Wawrinka needs to find some form before the second major of the year. As defending champion it is important he finds some magic from somewhere.
7 - Zverev’s backhand is a weapon. He can slice, dropshot and hit angles. It is not unlike the vicious one Nalbandian had, though it is not fully developed. Yet...


1. Istanbul Final - Schwartzman d. Dimitrov 6-7[5], 7-6[4], 6-0
...Schwartzman won his third successive three-setter, all of which involved a tie-breaker, and in doing so rose 25 places to 62 in the world. He took out the contest in three hours, and became the second first-time winner on the tour after Kyrgios. Dimitrov was up a set and 5-2 yet could not put the diminutive Argentine away. The match, full of breaks, ended in bizarre and fiery circumstances, as you can see here:



I like the Roddick method myself...



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2. Estoril Final - Almagro d. Busta 6-7[6], 7-6[5], 6-3
...Very similar to the other final. Almagro, down but not out, came back in three hours to convert on his third match point and take his 13th title. He is now 13-10 in finals. Can you guess what surface they all came on? Up 23 places to 48, could a French Open seed be in play for the vet?
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3. Munich Final - Kohlschreiber d. Thiem 7-6[7],4-6,7-6[4]
...Three superb finals this week and all as good as each other. This one saw a third title in Munich for Kohl and a sweaty hug at the end of the three hour tussle. It took the German multiple match points to finally spring the upset. He rises to 25 in the world and locks up a seed in Paris.
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4. Munich SF - Thiem d. Zverev 4-6, 6-3, 6-2
Estoril QF - Kyrgios d. Coric 6-4, 6-4
...The ATP is calling these guys #nextgen and in the first clash between the pairs, it was the higher ranked who triumphed. The rivalries these four have with one another could well define the next decade on tour. Kyrgios was calm and composed while Thiem showed fortitude. These set the benchmarks for further clashes with both showing potential.

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*MADRID*
=SF=
Wawrinka [4] d. [1] Djokovic
Nadal [5] d. [8] Berdych
=FINAL=
Nadal [5] d. Wawrinka [4]

...I don’t trust Murray or Djokovic here. Wawrinka has had some great results in Madrid and the Serb has not played here since 2013. Federer, as usual, gets Nadal while Murray is bound to choke despite his easy draw. Regardless of the top two seeds, Nadal is on fire right now.

Mladenovic has already gone. Lucic-Baroni comfortably defeated her 6-2, 6-3. Seeded 5th in the doubles, the Frenchies drew Gronefield/Vandeweghe in the first round. They won and now face Xu/Zheng.

Thanks all and visit WTA BACKSPIN please.

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posted by Todd.Spiker @ 12:14 AM 

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