Wk.16- Long Live the King, Again

Hey, all. Galileo here.


Shall we take a moment to appreciate that? Rafa Nadal is going to be the first player to win 70 clay court titles. It’s another impressive achievement from the Spaniard.

Last week we had an anomaly. Nadal and Fernando Verdasco won titles whilst Roberto Bautista Agut was poor. This is a rare thing. Spain right now has depth and talent across four disciplines. It has long been the power, with only France matching its depth. But even the French had nothing on the talent across the board.

David Ferrer dropped to 9th this week and Nadal hasn’t won a hard court title in ages. Nicolas Almagro and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez struggle to maintain a high level for long periods of time. Agut is starting to show signs of weakness and Marcel Granollers is on the comeback trail. With past players like Sergi Bruguera, Carlos Moya and even Albert Costa, why aren’t Spain developing more promising juniors?

Even Feliciano Lopez is getting old, even if he doesn’t age like the rest of us. The problem the Spanish have isn’t that they don’t have numbers now, it’s that they won’t next year. Next year Nadal turns 31. Ferrer will be 35 and Agut 29. Lopez will be 36 and Garcia-Lopez will be 34. Pablo Carreno Busta is the sixth and youngest Spaniard in the top fifty. He will be 26 next year. It’s not good. Age isn’t everything, but when players hit 30 they begin to crack. It’s important to separate Andre Agassi and Roger Federer. They aren’t normal.

So enjoy the Spanish style while it is still here. It will come back, but it’s going to take a while. As soon as the Masters roll back around, we’ll have something to talk about again.

But I think it is time to look at what has gone on this weekend...

=RANKINGS WATCH=
Top 32 - Karlovic drops a couple places to 31 while Johnson stays at 32. Dolgopolov rises two to send Dimitrov to 29th.
Top 10 – No change. Gasquet is barely holding off Raonic at 11. Mystifyingly Cilic is at 12.
Top 8 – Ferrer falls to nine, Berdych replacing him at eight. Tsonga is slowly carving himself an island at seven.
Top 4 – Little change. Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Wawrinka are the top four.

*WEEK 16 CHAMPIONS*
BARCELONA, SPAIN
S: Rafael Nadal def. Kei Nishikori 6-4/7-5
D: Bryan/Bryan d. Cuevas/Granollers
BUCHAREST, ROMANIA
S: Fernando Verdasco def. Lucas Pouille 6-3/6-2
D: Mergea/Tecau d. Guccione/Sa


PLAYER OF THE WEEK: RAFAEL NADAL
...Well it is April. Next week is an outlier because Nadal won’t be the POTW on BACKSPIN. There’s just not much more to add. The spinning serve, the iron defence, unerring positivity, unnerving ability to win points from nowhere and that Lleyton Hewitt attitude are all Nadal trademarks. And we’ve seen them all before. That’s without even mentioning the forehand that even the Terminator fears. That forehand could smash down brick walls and throw down empires. This week he did the classic Nadal thing of not letting the opponents get games. Granollers was dismissed 6-3, 6-2 and then Montanes went down 2 and 2. Two clay-court specialists, two compatriots who know Nadal’s game and nine games dropped. Sure, three years ago they would’ve got five but the point is Rafa is coming back. Fognini hung with Nadal for a while, but eventually lost 6-2, 7-6[1]. It was a spirited, determined performance from the Italian. In the semi, Kohl went down 6-3, 6-3. And Nishikori could not overpower Nadal on the baseline, going down 6-4, 7-5. The Japanese man got the full force of Rafa’s wrath in the final. He didn’t seem to have a plan regarding how to deal with Rafa’s forehand. He also failed to be aggressive on the Spaniard’s serve. But Nadal is finding his fire again. Now he has to beat Djokovic.
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RISER: KEI NISHIKORI
...He did his job. As the defending champion he reached the final again and lost to Nadal on Spanish clay. There’s no disrespect in that. At the start of his career we all thought he would rise to the top, win slams and become a solid top three player. We were all wrong. He has instead become the successor to Ferrer but with a worse serve and more powerful groundies. He does have more variety than Ferru but he has settled into that sixth spot behind the big boys nicely. Never at their level but always close to it. The gateway to the top five. A grand slam final or two and wasted potential. We saw that in Barcelona and in Madrid a few tournaments ago; he cannot live with the big boys. He could not even find a set against Rafa. He beat De Bakker 4 and 2, edged out Chardy 6-3, 7-5 and defeated the Dog 7-5, 6-0. It was too easy for the Asian number one, just like it was for Ferru. He dispatched tricky Frenchman Paire 6-3, 6-2. Paire has bested Kei recently, too, don’t forget. But in the final he was lacking. If he wants to make another slam final he has to find a way to make his wins over the top ten routine not flukey.
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FRESH FACE: LUCAS POUILLE
...The Frenchie rose 16 places to 56. With recent wins over Gasquet and Ferrer, the Frenchman is moving up in the world. He is turning into one of the better players the next generation of Frenchies have on offer. And now he has his first final and that means his first title is going to come soon. Perhaps during the packed schedule he can sneak one. Unseeded, he beat Lajovic 6-3, 6-4 then eliminated second seed Karlovic by the same scoreline. He had to go all the way to see off Lorenzi but he showed real guts to win 4-6, 6-4, 7-5. He had three match points when up 5-2 but he eventually closed it out in two and a half hours. He was impressive in his dismissal of Delbonis 7-6[4], 6-3. Sure he lost in the final, but Verdasco is horribly awkward to play against.
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VETERAN: FERNANDO VERDASCO
...Ferver rises 35 places to 51. But what was he doing down in the 80’s anyway? He is a man who can do this:


But Ferver is starting to come back. He is always a joy to watch and his forehand is a wrecking ball when it is on-song. He should have made a slam final or two, but that loss to Nadal way back when seemed to prematurely end his career. Always a liability between the ears, Verdasco showed mental toughness a-plenty this week. Unseeded, he opened with eighth seed Mathieu and saw him off 7-6[0], 2-6, 6-1. Then he eased past Albot 6-3, 6-1 before beating Haase in two and GGL in three. In the final he was outstanding against greenhorn Pouille, dominating from start to finish. With a few good runs he could once more crack the top fifty.
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SURPRISE: BENOIT PAIRE
...Consistently inconsistent, his sudden run when it matters really should not be a surprise. But that’s the reason it is. We would all love to know how Paire can blow out Cuevas, edge Jaziri and then get dismissed by Nishikori. We would love to see how the cogs in his head spin. But as we can’t we just have to make our peace with his enigmatic ways. He is going to be an extremely dangerous seed at the Masters and in Paris. He could maybe even trip up Murray.
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DOWN: ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT
...You can expect Tomic to have a few shockers, especially on clay. But for Agut to lose in three sets to Khachanov is pretty poor. He won the second set 7-6[4] but could take no momentum from that. Seeded 5th in an injury-hit tournament he should have been able to make some kind of run. But no, he can’t out-grind a Russian qualifier on clay. He should have dispatched the qualie in two sets. Worrying signs for the normally solid Spaniard.
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UPSET: ROBIN HAASE
...Haase hangs on to see off Tomic 7-6[4], 5-7, 6-3. The Aussie faded towards the end, but the Dutch man was still impressive, especially in that third set. He could have gone away quietly, but he didn’t. He stuck around and eventually saw off the top seed. Of course, he went out and lost to Verdasco the very next match, but small steps and all that.
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Notes from the week...
1 - This is the calm before the storm. With three 250 events this week and no top ten stars at any of them, it’s a breath. Next week the fun begins.
2 - Rested and with two clay titles in April, will Nadal be able to beat Djokovic in Rome?
3 - Kerber defends her Stuttgart title. Could she make a run at the French, which is traditionally her worst slam?
4 - What is Serena playing like? Off form, with no match play recently and on her worst surface is she there for the taking?
5 - The Bryans in 2007 went from November to April title-less. That was the last time until this month. They had not won a title since August of last year, but won two this month.
6 - Will Djokovic get his first win on clay in Rome? He needs one just to settle his nerves.
7 - Coming up to this year’s French Open, we have three former champions in the men’s event, and four in the women’s. It seems rather low, especially compared with other years.


1. Bucarest QF - GGL d. Pella 7-6[5], 4-6, 7-6[6]
...After three hours of grinding on the dirt, the Argentine finally succumbed. Pella had match point but could not quite put away the defending champion. Garcia-Lopez has so much experience in three set wars, particularly on clay and that previous experience really helped him.
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2. Barcelona QF - Nadal d. Fognini 6-2, 7-6[1]
...Nadal exorcized his demons here. Fognini has long troubled the Spaniard, and has been his foil everywhere. But in Barcelona Nadal finally got a little bit of revenge. And oh how sweet it must have been.
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3. Bucarest SF - Verdasco d. Garcia-Lopez 6-3, 3-6, 6-2
...Ferver outlasted GGL, though it definitely had something to do with the Spaniard's previous match. Verdasco has not been to a final for some time so this was a momentous run. Could he be finding that forehand again? The Spaniard will be a dangerous floater in the upcoming Masters.
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4. Barceona Final - Nadal d. Nishikori 6-4 7-5
...Nadal broke Nishikori early in the first set and went up 3-1. From there he never looked back and cruised to a 6-4, 7-5 victory. It was meant to be a clay-swing defining match but ended up being more like the Ferrer and Nadal clashes of old. Have a look-see at this for the story of the match.
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*ESTORIL*
=SF=
Simon [1] d. [5] Garcia-Lopez
Kyrgios [2] d. [7] Mayer
=FINAL=
Kyrgios [2] d. Simon [1]

...Nobody here is better than Kyrgios. Without Gasquet defending the title, it is an open field. Kyrgios was a finalist here last year and seeded second he should make it that far again. The Aussie plays Coric in the quarters which should be interesting. Almagro also lurks, but Mayer should continue his resurgence.

*MUNICH*
=SF=
Thiem [3] d. [1] Goffin
Monfils [2] d. Del Potro
=FINAL=
Thiem [3] d. Monfils [2]

...Let’s go with form here. Both men are rolling this year, but Monfils is notoriously abysmal in finals. Del Potro will make his first clay semi-final in a long while here. This is a great chance for Goffin to win his first clay title off the year. Zverev lurks in Goffin's quarter.

*ISTANBUL*
=SF=
Delbonis [4] d. [1] Tomic
Dimitrov [2] d. [5] Granollers
=FINAL=
Dimitrov [2] d. Delbonis [4]

...Berlocq is unseeded and dangerous, but I like Dimitrov to win his first title in what feels like eons. Tomic should make the semi, but Delbonis is too hot right now. And Granollers should make another run. It’s a weaker field and Granollers can definitely take advantage of that.

Could our Frenchies be establishing themselves as one of the best pairs in the world? In the first round the Pastries escaped Konta/Siegemund 3-6, 6-3, 10-7. But after that they got a bit of luck. Friedsam/Petkovic pulled out, handing them a semi-final berth. There they edged Gronefield/Peschke 7-5, 5-7, 10-4 to make the final. Top seeded Hingis/Mirza had dropped just 15 games in three matches and were on top form. They dominated the Frenchies in the opening set and took it out 6-2. But somehow Garcia/Mladenovic took the next 6-1 before rolling through the breaker 10-6 to claim their second title in a month. They also took Charleston and are 2-2 in finals this year, but Kiki is 14-9 overall for hre career. At the French Open they have to prove they can win on the biggest stage. She lost to Petkovic here 6-2, 6-4 but that’s excusable. Petko excels in Germany, which is where Stuttgart is these days, and Kiki was settling into the clay. We will see her again in Rome, guys.


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