Wk.33- A Week for Comebacks

Hey, all. Galileo here.

Well, we have some serious questions for the U.S. Open to answer. Some of them, like, "Can it run a successful tournament just once?," we already know the answer to. Some, like who will take the women’s world number one ranking, are yet to be determined. And the question of the winner is obvious now, but may leave us looking foolish come September.

Murray had his 22-match win streak snapped, but has looked very good recently, especially with his victory at Wimbledon. But can he beat Djokovic? Wawrinka has looked poor for months, but he could easily snatch the U.S. Open. Djokovic looks fatigued and Murray does not look infallible. In fact, his run in Rio had plenty of tight matches, with the Scot almost going down to Fognini. Djokovic is the favourite, but this BACKSPINNER would take the field over our world number one.

And then we have the drop-outs. Federer and Berdych dropping out moves all the seeds up. Thiem, Kyrgios and Goffin are all playing the role of dark horse, but Dimitrov or even Tomic could make a run. This slam is a great chance for a couple of surprise semi-finalists. Nadal is winding down his career. In Rio, we saw everything he had left. He isn’t even a paper tiger, he’s a paper tiger moth.


So, plenty of questions. And then we have Cilic.

Now THAT is how you celebrate winning your 1st ATP Masters1000 title! ?? @cilic_marin https://t.co/StKfujt5eJ

— W&S Open (@CincyTennis) August 21, 2016

He’s just won a first Masters title. He is seeded 7th, the withdrawal of Federer and Berdych putting him over. Well, he and Thiem over into that top eight seed bracket. With all this form and his history at the U.S. Open, where he has won twelve matches out of fourteen the last two years. Could he make it nineteen out of twenty-one? His serve and forehand are clicking, and he will not meet an opponent out of his comfort zone until the quarters. He just beat one of the favourites.

Is Cilic, and it pains this BACKSPINNER to have to even think about it, a contender and not a dark horse? This is the tournament he does best in. Is another run so far fetched? No. He has been abysmal all year and should not be seeded 7th, but if he can get cooking early and ride the form through, he could make a serious impact on the field. The problem is if he runs into, say, Karlovic and Gasquet back to back he could have some problems. He has to have a kind draw, but if he gets one who knows how far he can go.

And now we must delve into yet another Masters 1000 tournament. Not many to go now, in fact our year is almost up.

=RANKINGS WATCH=
Top 32 - Simon falls again, but only one place. He will sit at 32, behind Querrey, who dropped two places. Klizan and Zverev, who dropped two places, as well, are at 30 and 29, respectively. Dimitrov is up to 24, a ten place jump. He has guaranteed himself a seed in New York.
Top 10 – Cilic moves up five spots, consequently everyone else falls a spot. Thiem is a solid 10th, and could rise two places at the U.S. Open.
Top 8 – Little change. Raonic putting daylight between him and Nishikori. Berdych is only just holding onto the eighth spot. Cilic will take it in New York, barring a disaster, being only 55 points behind.
Top 4 – The gap between Murray and Djokovic is getting slimmer, while Wawrinka nips ahead of Federer. He is establishing himself as the world number three.

*WEEK 33 CHAMPIONS*
CINCINNATI, OHIO USA (Hard)
S: Marin Cilic d. Andy Murray 6-4/7-5
D: Dodig/Melo d. Rojer/Tecau


PLAYER OF THE WEEK: MARIN CILIC, CRO
...For Cilic, our resident grumpy Croat, the issue has always been consistency. Forget tournament to tournament and match to match, his consistency wavers game to game. The power has never been questioned, with that serve and forehand being paragons of brutal power, similar weapons to that of Soderling. He has struggled with the harnessing of those enormous weapons, the actual application of them. When he can do it, the results begin to flow like in Melbourne in 2010, where he should have had Murray and moved onto the final, but choked. Another familiar occurrence. During that tournament we got a taste, a hint of what he could produce and it was exhilarating. We saw glimpses in his three successive runs to the Wimbledon quarters. And, of course, the memorable 2014 run to his first major title, in which his dismissal of Nishikori still strikes this BACKSPINNER as maybe his best victory of the whole campaign. And he followed it up with an admirable attempt at a defence of his crown, though that Djokovic loss was quite embarrassing. It turned into a blowout very quickly. But now he comes into his best slam with form and confidence. His weapons are working and it looks like he believes. Now watch him crash and burn. His straight sets victories over Troicki and Verdasco were a great start. Edging Berdych in three and getting a retirement victory from Coric saw him through the semi-finals. After escaping Dimitrov, though just barely, he took out Murray in straight sets in the final. What a week from Cilic. No, he really is grumpy.
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RISER: MILOS RAONIC, CAN
...Raonic is back. But did he ever really leave? Apart from Rome, he has made the quarters or better at every Masters tournament. He has beaten Federer in a final and lost several tight ones to Murray and Djokovic at Wimbledon, Queens and Indian Wells. He has been an ace machine and also found a high level of consistency. The Canuck may never have been past the fourth round of the U.S. Open, but he has gotten personal bests at two of the three slams so far and also made the fourth round of the French. Not a bad result. He has the benefit of seeing how Nishikori responded after losing his first major final, though at least Raonic wasn’t the favourite, means he can avoid the motivation issues that have at times affected the Asian number one. Indeed, it seems at times that Kei has settled comfortably, and happily, into the role of an also-ran. But with the simplicity and explosiveness in the Canadian’s game, surely he can respond better than Kei did to the ultimate disappointment. With so many of the big names out of the U.S. Open or irrelevant [Nadal], anything less than a semi-final showing will be a disappointment. The relative ease of his run here will give him confidence; knocking out Isner in two breakers and seeing off Thiem in straight sets were both impressive victories. Even in the 6-1, 3-6, 6-1 victory over Sugita he looked fairly good. The Murray result was poor, but this run will have given him a boost. Are we going to have a North American winner of the American major for the first time in thirteen years?
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FRESH FACE: REILLY OPELKA, USA
...When Roddick began to fade, we had an Open era first. No American male tennis player resided in the top ten. It had never happened before, but now it is the norm. But now there is a slew of promising young talented Americans coming through. The sad truth is, however, that most of these U.S. juniors fizzle out. The Harrison brothers, or worse, Donald Young, are all examples of how it can go very wrong very quickly. But players like Taylor Harry Fritz could start their own trend, their own way of doing things. Tiafoe is another who could go either way. This result is only the latest in a long, long list of good results throughout Opelka’s short career. He edged Chardy 3-6, 7-5, 7-6[11] and then pushed Tsonga hard, but ultimately fell 7-6[5], 7-6[3]. It’s encouraging for the youngster, who is ranked 291. That’s a career high.
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VETERAN: GRIGOR DIMITROV, BUL
...The signs were there that Dimitrov might be making a recovery, a return to form. But it can be hard to tell if they are genuine or if they are more like when Ana Ivanovic wins two matches in a row. Fortunately, the semi-final run here has shown that if it is only temporary, it is a fairly lengthy temporary rise in form. He rose ten places in the rankings, which is pretty good. One day the kid who saw off Murray in Acapulco could return. But we love him for another reason. Sure, dismissing Simon 1 and 3 is impressive. And edging past Lopez 5-7, 6-3, 7-6[6] is a fantastic result. Knocking out the second seed in straight sets and then rolling past Johnson 7-6[8], 6-2 are all noteworthy results. But he also did this:




And because he can always be relied upon to pull those out we can forgive him being a tad inconsistent.
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SURPRISE: BORNA CORIC, CRO
...Forget the retirement. He beat Paire 1-6, 6-3, 6-4. He edged Kyrgios 7-6[2], 4-6, 7-6[8] and then dismissed Rafa for the loss of just four games. He served for it at 5-3 in the third against the Aussie and then had to save a match point in the breaker, but he came through in two and a half hours. All three of those results are outstanding and they see him deservedly rise back up to 40. Coric was a breath of fresh air this past week.
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DOWN: STAN WAWRINKA, SUI
...Where has the Swiss been all year? Despite being a double major winner, his ranking of #3 deceives one. He is not the third best player in the world. On his day he is the best, but if he isn’t on top form he is fallible. The way he tamely folded in a 6-4, 6-4 loss to Dimitrov was poor. It is another shocking result in a long list of them. He will be a contender for the U.S. Open crown, but not a favourite. He only just got past Donaldson 2-6, 6-3, 6-4. The silver linings are that he is going into a tournament he always does fairly well in and the losses have not been utterly awful. They have been winnable, they have been matches that could have gone either way. Honestly, this could have gone to Ferrer, but we expect him to do poorly. Wawrinka can, and should, be doing better than this.
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UPSET: MARIN CILIC, CRO
...Murray led the head-to-head 11-2 and had lost just once in seven years. But now he must bow down to the superiority of Cilic. For once. The Croat moves to 3-11 in that head-to-head, but don’t expect him to beat the Scot in New York if they meet. He breaks the 22-win streak Murray had and he looked good doing it. A turning point for Cilic?
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Notes from the week...
1 - Mahut and Herbert have to respond after an abysmal Olympics campaign.
2 – The Davis Cup is right after our last slam. How bad will attendance be?
3 – Can Nishikori ride his Bronze and turn it into another positive result in New York?
4 – If Djokovic crashes early and Murray wins it all, could the Scot take the top ranking this year?
5 – Serena is going to tie (at least) Graf's consecutive weeks at #1 record of 186 weeks (she has 184). As Kerber pointed out, she is a woman not a machine.


1. Cincinnati SF - Cilic d. Dimitrov 4-6, 6-3, 7-5
...Up 4-2 in the third, Dimi could not quite hang on and fell to the determined Croatian in controversial style. A crowd member declared a ball out, but play continued and it led to Cilic breaking. It would be the crucial break of serve.
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2. Cincinnati QF - Tomic d. Nishikori 7-6[1], 7-6[5]
...Good use of backhand here from the Aussie. He saw off the Bronze medalist in two tight sets. Against Kei the most important thing is to shut him out. Do not give him even a sniff. He is too hard to put away.
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3. Cincinnati R3 - Coric d. Nadal 6-1, 6-3
...Look at the scoreline. Is there anything else to add?
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4. Cincinnati Final - Cilic d. Murray 6-4, 7-5
...This was a scrappy match highlighted by flashes of brilliance. Cilic missing an open court with an easy forehand and Murray scrambling everywhere on several points were the highlights. Murray just couldn’t quite crack the enigma that was Cilic this time. Despite a late, or possibly early, finish, Cilic came out blazing and won his maiden Masters title.
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*WINSTON-SALEM*
=SF=
Gasquet [1] d. [5] Anderson
Johnson [4] d. [2] Agut
=FINAL=
Gasquet [1] d. [4] Johnson

...Defending champion Anderson should be able to make a run here. Gasquet is the best player here by a long way, but his form is questionable. And Johnson is playing on home soil with good form of late. Can any big names find form before the U.S. Open?

Mladenovic beat Bondarenko in the first round in straight sets, but then fell to Kerber 6-0, 7-5. And in Connecticut she just fell to Rogers 6-1, 6-1. And top seeded duo in the doubles last week, she and Garcia lost to King/Niculescu 3-6, 6-2, 1-0 [10-4]. It’s pretty poor from the world’s top seeded pair. That French Open title will not always be their saving grace.

Thanks all and visit WTA BACKSPIN please.

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