Monday, November 21, 2016

Wk.46- WTF: Still Not Over...


Hey, all. Galileo here.

So here we are. The last stand of the 2016 ATP tour, bar the Davis Cup. So we’ll do an intro, breaking down both groups, then break down the knock-out stages, sort of player by player. Is that to your liking? This BACKSPINNER hopes so. Keep in mind how worn down this BACKSPINNER is and he only does half – if that - of the work the other BACKSPINNER does.

Well, we’ll start at the top, shall we? Now if you’re going to name a group, either go British because it is in London or go for the greatest ever. This BACKSPINNER likes the sound of Fred Perry and Bunny Austin group. The Bunny group. Now who wouldn’t want to play in that? Except for that girl from "Fatal Attraction," possibly. That’s a lot of therapy right there. You can’t call it the Federer group yet, but why not Laver and Sampras?

Anyway, in the John McEnroe Group there was the first truly significant British player since those two. Seventy years is a long time unless you’re a Cubs fan or your team plays in Fenway Park. But, yes, this group had Andy Murray and it also had the man closest to achieving the Career Grand Slam, Stan Wawrinka.
Here’s a superb fact for you: Connors, Borg, Federer and Wawrinka. All won their first three slam finals. Fed won his first seven, but Wawrinka could go second all-time if he wins a fourth.

Also here was the ever disappointing Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori. Both seem to disappoint in different ways. Nishikori always seems to falter at the moment when he is about to take charge, but Cilic is just abysmal 70 per cent of the time. But the 30 he is so good it makes the 70 look even worse.

Wawrinka crashed and burned, as did Cilic, but Murray looked supreme throughout. He dropped just a set. Nishikori was solid, but the way he lost to Cilic really wasn’t great. This group had some flashes of brilliant tennis but was mostly pretty average.

Now in the other group, the Ivan Lendl Group, we had injuries, drama and the future of the one-handed backhand. We had two future Hall-of-Famers - yes, two - and a lot of pretty good tennis. Gael Monfils withdrew, unfortunately, but Dominic Thiem and Milos Raonic combined with Novak Djokovic was enough to keep us intrigued.

Monfils and David Goffin (who replaced the Frenchman after two matches) seemed destined to fail, but Thiem almost made the semi-final on his debut. Raonic managed to prove that his calm temperament is sometimes the answer.

Intrigued?

=RANKINGS WATCH=
Top 32 - No change. Querrey is at 31, with Kohl clinging onto the 32nd spot. Busta finishes the year at 30.
Top 10 – Nadal down to 9th. Berdych at 10 could overtake the Spaniard.
Top 8 – Thiem is up to eighth, while Monfiils falls to seventh. Cilic, typically, did nothing but is up to sixth. Kei holds firm at five, his own little island.
Top 4 – Wawrinka is off the pace, Raonic having built a little lead against the Swiss. But 140 points or so are nothing. Murray is 900 points above Novak as it stands, but both the top guys have enormous points to defend next year. Either Rafa or Roger could make a move.


*WEEK 46 CHAMPIONS*
ATP WORLD FINALS; LONDON (Hard Indoor)
S: Andy Murray def. Novak Djokovic 6-3/6-4
D: Kontinen/Peers d. Klaasen/Ram




PLAYER OF THE WEEK: ANDY MURRAY, GBR
...Who else? The current world number one put the key in the padlock and locked it up for the year with a victory at the World Tour Finals. It was pretty good, but there is still a niggling feeling he won’t win in Melbourne. It’s going to be even more painful watching the world’s best player lose a sixth final there. But the kind of pain that’s almost grimly funny - like watching Sharapova taking on Serena. But the last few weeks he has taken advantage of a watered down ATP and, going the classic Dinara route, has ascended to the top using the Masters. But we finally saw evidence he can beat the cream of the crop as he saw off a lot of talent and survived the longest ever match at the Finals to come out triumphant. In the group stages, dismissals of Cilic and Wawrinka saw the Scot looking at his dazzling best. Nishikori put up some resistance, but in the end it was for nought. In the semi-finals we had one of the matches of the year. Muzza took it out 5-7, 7-6 (7-5), 7-6 (11-9) in three hours and 38 minutes against Canada’s Raonic. And the final was the cherry on top of the enormous cake - seeing off Nole. Truly a world number one, even if he doesn’t yet belong with the big three achievement-wise.
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RISER: MILOS RAONIC, CAN
...He doesn’t do outside the box. He is very similar to Del Potro, just not with that level of ability. Not yet, anyway. He is due a slam, and he should have had it at Wimbledon. Here, despite this BACKSPINNER’s reservations, he showed off his simple game plan yet again. Pistol Pete won all those slams because he kept it simple and straightforward. Raonic should have beaten Murray in the semi-final. The Scot got away with one there - he wasn’t the better player and to win that is a sign he is number one. Raonic’s handling of Thiem and Monfils was the sign of just how good the new number three is. He could’ve done a tad better against Nole, but two breakers really isn’t so bad. It was a solid week that indicates a very good 2017. And that inside forehand is really devastating. He is turning into a complete player. Look for him to win a slam next year.
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FRESH FACE: DAVID GOFFIN, BEL
...He came in as an alternate, did his thing and looked okay. What more can you ask? It gives him a taste of the biggest stage and it means he can draw from this in those big match moments. Sure, Djokovic beat him 6-2, 6-2 but sometimes it is best to get the horrible first match out of the way. Now when he inevitably comes back he knows it will not be new. Plus, for 69 minutes work he gets 144k sterling. So not bad, eh?
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VETERAN: KEI NISHIKORI, JPN
...What do you even say about the Japanese man that has yet to be spoken? Perhaps the biggest underachiever on the tour, given that Tsonga and Gasquet at least made pretty good careers. Nishikori has more than those two, really. He should be number two with a couple of slams under his belt. The comparisons you can draw between him and Clijsters are easy, though her career far eclipsed his. And she had to deal with Henin and the Williams sisters. So if Kim can do that, Kei can win a slam. Anyway, he did enough this week, as always. A typically tight loss to one of the big guys followed by a win over Monfils. What is highly disappointing is the way he didn’t even try to beat Cilic. He knew he was through so went out there and, similar to Azarenka against Bartoli a few years ago, just sat back and let it happen. His 6-1, 6-1 loss in the semi-final wasn’t even really a shock. Next year he has to at least make a slam final. He’s the world number five. He should prove it.
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SURPRISE: DOMINIC THIEM, AUT
...Delightful, and different. That is the Austrian. He is a breath of fresh air in this tournament and on the tour. He nicked a set off Djokovic. He played some lovely shots. He overcame Monfils in three and revived the spirit of Muster, the best Austrian since the mighty Thomas. Melzer being the second best, perhaps. He did this in the first set of his tournament, against Novak:


While we’re here, let us not forget this happened:


It doesn’t matter that he faded against Raonic in a 7-6[3], 6-3 loss. Just as it doesn’t matter that this entire final blog post is riddled with tangents - it’s the last one, so what has one got to lose? Thiem is certainly a future slam winner and this debut was proof it will not be his last time here. Don’t forget, his win against Monfils was pretty good, too.
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DOWN: STAN WAWRINKA, SUI
...No, not as bad as Cilic, but his ceiling is so much higher. No reason to think one day he won’t win Wimbledon and have the quartet. He has more game, more weapons and is a lock for the Hall of Fame. He should have used this chance to take a shot at rising up the rankings. He should have designs on that number two ranking, honestly. But losses to Murray and Nishikori in straight sets sealed his fate. Even the victory over Cilic in two breakers wasn’t great. We expect better. Luckily, the next slam is his best.
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OTHERS: CILIC AND DJOKOVIC
...Djokovic did what was expected, but he led Murray in the head-to-head 24-10 and 3-1 this year before the match. He had just smashed Nishikori, who took a set off Muzza, 6-1, 6-1. And he goes into the final and was totally flat. Sure, he came back from a double break in the second and made Murray think twice when serving it out, but this was not the performance you expect from a dethroned king.

And Cilic was abysmal. Nothing new there. He performs at Wimbledon, so he can choke in the quarterfinals like usual, and at the U.S. Open for the most part. He’ll turn up to a couple of Masters, but for every good win there’s a loss to a journeyman on that player's worst surface where Cilic will hit 50 errors in two sets. How he stays in the top ten is beyond this BACKSPINNER.
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Notes from the Week...
1 - Fedex returns in 2017 at the Hopman cup with Bencic. Go check out the opening week of next year, even though it is too soon by half.
2 – Absolutely dire performance from Herbert/Mahut and they don’t deserve their top ranking. They played like number twos. But Peers/Kontinen were superb and played the role of Cinderella perfectly. Peers rises three to nine, Kontinen from three to seven.
3 – Seems to me this season is too long. It’s definitely one of the causes for injury. It should stop when the WTA does. If there is equal prize money everything else should be. Next year they are slotting in an under-21’s year-end tournament. Why?
4 – First time in fourteen years no Roger Federer at the WTF. It really does feel like the end of an era. The world number 16 will have so few points to defend next season. That’s the silver lining.
5 - Del Potro will lead Argentina to Davis Cup victory and a 4-0 head to head mark over Croatia in their backyard. The Argentine deserves something for how good he has been this year. With two rubber wins combined with team success, he should rise to somewhere just outside the top 30. Argies take it 3-2.
6 - Hmmm.




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posted by Todd.Spiker @ 11:47 PM 

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