What I Said Then, What I Say Now

Well, hello. Galileo here.


I guess it is this BACKSPINNER'S turn to look back at my predictions from before the start of the 2016 season. And boy did Todd set the bar high. Well, considering my awful guessing ability he did, anyway.

Let’s take this into pieces. It will be mainly WTA Choc Chip with a few ATP Ranking reflections sprinkles. So we’ll take some quotes from the Volley and then look at some hits and misses. There’ll be some whacky predictions and other ATP miscellaneous stuff, too. And my New Year's resolutions are to stop defending Tomic and Kyrgios because they’re talented, and also to respect Radwanska more. Monfils is talented and not a total you-know-what. And Radwanska has been number two.



Right, let's get started, shall we?

WHAT I SAID THEN: “Serena is a lock for number one until sometime in 2017.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: Whoops. Didn’t get this one right, but it was the percentage pick and one we both called.

WHAT I SAID THEN:“Almost by default, Maria is a lock (for the Top 10). I think she is a slam threat everywhere except perhaps the U.S. Open.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: Another one where I don’t think I can be blamed. Todd and I both played safe, but I mention she might be on the wane. We’ll see if that comes true.

WHAT I SAID THEN: Muguruza is a "Top 10 lock" for 2016." (Todd went with Halep, while we both has Serena and Sharapova in the same top-level group.) "I think of this as (Todd picking) a red apple and I have picked a green one. No wrong answer, just slightly different. It was a 50/50 for me, but I do believe Muguruza can win the slam."
WHAT I SAY NOW: I did go with Muguruza and it was one of my better picks, but next year there has to be slam consistency. Halep was also a good pick, obviously.

WHAT I SAID THEN: “I do believe Muguruza can win the slam. I don’t buy Halep just yet. She's just missing something. I struggle to quantify it, but there’s just something missing.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: Yep. Not doing quite as badly as I thought, though Halep is likely to finish the year more highly ranked.

WHAT I SAID THEN: “She may be missing something, but Halep is still a top five player. But she won’t win a slam yet.” (Todd responded, "maybe in 2017.") "I think a final, maybe even two, but a slam, well, not quite yet. Her problem is she doesn’t have a major like Li Na did. Like Kvitova or even Stosur does. That major where everything goes out the window because, hey, it’s Lisicki at Wimbledon. She needs that. It could be Roland Garros one day, but she’s only been to the fourth round twice and has a 1-1 record in those matches" "...Muguruza is a lock to at least stay within the top 10 parameters, though I don’t think she will fall below eight. She will make at least one slam semi-final and slowly bring Spanish tennis back into relevancy with help from Suarez-Navarro. Could a Fed Cup title be coming soon?“
WHAT I SAY NOW: Correct on all three singles. She went 4-0 in Davis Cup singles play, including wins over Jankovic, Vinci and Schiavone to bring Spain into the World Group with CSN’s help. She didn’t play much doubles because the Fed Cup structure is stupid. [Todd agrees.]

WHAT I SAID THEN: “Petra will be top ten in 2016, and will have ten ridiculous losses that are utterly unexplainable, inexplicable and enraging. You only get about 12 good days a year.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: At least predicting Petra’s unpredictably is, well, predictable. And she is ranked 11 right now, so I'm not wrong. Yet.
(Ed.note: The ten ridiculous losses is probably close to right - tds)

WHAT I SAID THEN: “Kerber just hangs around the bottom end of the top ten between 9 and 12 in the world. She wins two or three small titles every year and does solidly at two or three slams.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: She was very solid at three slams, winning two. She another smaller title, but I can only give myself a B-minus here, and that’s being generous.

WHAT I SAID THEN: “I have Pliskova one group down (Todd had her in his "Good Bets for the Top 10" group), but I think she ends the year around the top eight. I believe she finishes well again. She will also make a couple of decent slam runs.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: A-minus for this prediction. World number five, but only one decent slam run. Though it was quite the run, wasn’t it Serena?

WHAT I SAID THEN: “I think Bencic flirts with the ranking of ten all year and ends up somewhere between number 9 to number 11. All these predictions are barring injury, of course.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: Well, as Todd pointed out, both his and my Top 10 predictions got caned by Sharapova’s controversy and Bencic’s injury woes. Maybe past me had a vision of the future here.

WHAT I SAID THEN: “Carla makes a lot of points on clay, but fades as the year goes on with a couple surprising results just when you had forgotten about them. She should stay in or around the top ten”
WHAT I SAY NOW: Well, I’m happy with this, but I don’t get many points for being bold. I really struggle predicting anything with this one. But that backhand. Here have a clip.

WHAT I SAID THEN: “I’ve said this a lot, but I can’t look past the Williamses for the Olympic Gold.“
WHAT I SAY NOW: Ouch.

WHAT I SAID THEN: “I am going to argue for Venus being (in the '16 Top 10) because it is important to recognise how good she continues to be. She has remarkable staying power... I just think Venus is a top eight player on and off paper currently. That serve is still one of the best and she has excellent resilience.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: She was in the top ten for most of the year. She may not finish there but it’s a passing grade for this pick. Bonus points for guts.

WHAT I SAID THEN: “I like Radwanska's style. I like how she has won the Shot of the Year award the last three years running. I’ve been waiting since 2012 for her to step up and establish herself as a genuine threat”
WHAT I SAY NOW: One of my greatest failings is failing to appreciate Aga’s Ferrer-like ability to maximise a game that lacks a major weapon. She will be top ten this year and if there was a slam held in Asia she’d probably win it.
(Ed.note: Bold statement, though I guess it could never be proven to be a correct one, unfortunately... at least not anytime soon, unless you "count" the WTA Finals, I guess. Which one can't. - tds)

WHAT I SAID THEN: “Keys is my final addition to the (Top 10) list. I can sum this one up quite succinctly, for once. I am riding her bandwagon. I am buying her stock. I am a believer. I think this year is her year to become the Williams’s successor. There are places she can pick up some serious points. I think she will stay top 20.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: I stuck with this even after the Davenport split. And I’m glad I did, but Stephens did win three more titles. However, Keys hit a 12-4 mark in slams while Sloane went just 4-3. Keys made three finals, too, but lost in Rome and Montreal. Two finals at the biggest events and a win in Birmingham is more impressive than Stephens three titles, but only just.
(Ed.note: I think for Keys, this was the year she needed, showing her mettle in the majors, even if she didn't win a handful of titles. Same for Sloane, who needed to just prove to herself that she could be consistent again, especially in the final match at ANY event, let alone three of them. - tds)

WHAT I SAID THEN: “Caro will have a small resurgence at some point.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: Correct, but I also mentioned how she would turn into the new Ivanovic or Jankovic. Probably unfair. I did pick her as a wild card. Do I get points for that?

WHAT I SAID THEN: My top 10 picks, plus one, alphabetically:

Belinda Bencic, SUI
Simona Halep, ROU
Angelique Kerber, GER
Madison Keys, USA
Petra Kvitova, CZE
Garbine Muguruza, ESP
Karolina Pliskova, CZE
Maria Sharapova, RUS
Carla Suarez-Navarro, ESP
Serena Williams, USA
Venus Williams, USA

WHAT I SAY NOW: I'll probably get seven of my 11 in.

WHAT I SAID THEN: “Garcia (as a possible top player): some fresh blood might be nice. I’m bored of waiting for A-Pavs to get it together and realize how good she is. How far up the rankings will the exotic and mysterious Garcia rise? I do think that the top fifteen is within reach.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: Well, I blew this, but she did start the year at 35 and is now at 25.
(Ed.note: after reaching a career-best 24 in September, winning two titles after only having one previously -- in '14, reaching the Top 3 or 4 in doubles, and just being given the Fed Cup Heart Award, I'd say Garcia had a "career year." I think you get full credit on this one. - tds)

WHAT I SAID THEN: “(On Ivanovic) Her forehand still works and her volley game is always better every time I watch her. Solid top twenty player next year. A slam quarter somewhere and two titles. Finishes at about number 12. Sound about right to you?
WHAT I SAY NOW: Big fat F-minus for this one. Currently at 61, this time her irrelevancy looks permanent.

WHAT I SAID THEN: “I think A-Pavs finds her way back to the top fifteen. Her doubles skills will help her do that. When on form she is a force to be reckoned with. I think she will certainly reach at least one fourth round at slam level this year and win a couple titles, too. I want to see improvement at the big events, as well. I think we get that.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: No, not right on this, but she is trending up and she made a quarter at Wimbledon, the one slam I said she wouldn’t contend in. She did improve on the big stage and her trajectory feels positive. A C here for me, I think.
(Ed.note: she was in far better shape this year, and was more consistent, too, even if she didn't win as "big" as she sometimes has in the past. Her 2017 season results might give a better idea of how "successful" '16 ultimately was, I think. - tds)

WHAT I SAID THEN: “Azarenka (as a possible Top tenner): She had a fine season, but is still ranked too low. With her it is quite simple. Stay healthy and she can do whatever she wants. She is a top five player and this year I think she can get back to that.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: Another for the ‘not my fault’ column.
(Ed.note: she did briefly return to the top 5 after winning Indian Wells and Miami, and she defeated Serena in a final. It's easy to forget that now, as it WAS seven months ago already. - tds)

WHAT I SAID THEN: “Kuznetsova: I think she will finish in the top twenty again, but retirement certainly beckons for the veteran. She could still make a run at a slam. Somewhere she could make a run. The French or the U.S. are a good bet.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: Not quite, but very close. Lost to eventual champs at the French and at Wimbledon. That Serena loss, in particular, she had the racket taken out of her hands.

WHAT I SAID THEN: “Martinez Sanchez has been back (in doubles in '15) and I think she will continue to come back this year. Perhaps she will continue to focus on doubles, as I would think she will want to give it one last shot.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: A title in Mallorca and a quarterfinal in Miami were highlights in the doubles. Singles is probably over for her, but she is still around next year. She will finish top forty in doubles.


As for the ATP...

WHAT I SAID THEN: “Djokovic is in a class of his own. But be warned. A time is coming soon, very soon, when Djokovic is going to start showing brief signs of mortality once more. Perhaps he’ll just lose a set here or there to opponents you wouldn’t expect. Then maybe he starts dropping tight three setters. After that he slowly loses his ability to dominate all. Maybe right at the very end of next year we might see the first very brief glimpses of weakness.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: I think I get an A for this. He will finish as number one.

WHAT I SAID THEN: “Kyrgios is mad, bad and totally unstoppable. He can do anything.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: An embargo this week. He is in disgrace. I’ve spent all year defending him, sounding like a Trump supporter because the up-side is so good, but our sport is beginning to suffer. Here have some gifs.



WHAT I SAID THEN: “I don’t want Dimitrov to win slams. I don’t want him to beat the big guys every time. I just want to see a pulse, a sign of life. A slam quarter or two, a decent performance at a couple of Masters events and maybe a 500 title. That kind of year would be good.”
WHAT I SAY NOW: 500 level final, fourth round in New York and two good performances at the Masters. It was a good comeback year that saw him finish at 18. I get an A-minus for this!


Hits...

A player born during Bill Clinton’s presidency (January 1993-January 2001) wins a slam, whilst a player born in the Bush administration (January '01 and later) wins a match. [Thank you Potapova.]
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Serena wins two slams, but has a year of regression compared to this past one. She will win more then five titles, though. [Five finals and three slam finals, darn it.]
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Of 2016's sixteen slam semi-finalists, at least two will be first-timers [One at each: Konta, Bertens, Vesnina and Pliskova.]
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I picked Wawrinka to defeat Federer at Wimbledon and got given by Todd “wrong slam but close enough.” That was in conjunction with my pick that Wawrinka would win a slam.
[Ed.note: you were on Stan all year, and he finally came through in NYC. Faith is sometimes rewarded, I guess. :) - tds)
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And misses...

Switzerland wins the Olympics from a tennis point of view. Federer, Wawrinka, Hingis, Bacs, Bencic should be enough.
(Ed.note: though, Bacsinszky/Hingis winning a WD medal at least bailed you out on some level on this one. - tds)
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Bouchard wins a title and makes a slam quarter. Cracks the top 25 again.
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Look for a high profile retirement after the Olympics. Zvonareva?
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The defending Davis Cup champion Brits crash and burn in the first round
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Here are some reflections on my outrageous predictions. Please enjoy.

WHAT I SAID THEN:Nadal retires after the U.S. Open.
(Ed.note: I almost get the feeling he'll have to be carried off on his shield. - tds)
WHAT I SAY NOW: I am going to stop picking this to happen. Nadal has turned into 2015 Peyton Manning, though.

WHAT I SAID THEN:Djokovic wins only four Masters titles. He also does not make four slam finals.
WHAT I SAY NOW: I am right on both counts! Please Paris, spring an upset on Djokovic.

WHAT I SAID THEN:Mahut/Herbert win a doubles slam title
WHAT I SAY NOW: They won Wimbledon! Another A grade.

WHAT I SAID THEN:Federer/Hingis do not lose a set on the way to the Gold at the Olympics in the mixed. They defeat Wawrinka/Bencic in the final.
WHAT I SAY NOW: Did any of them even play? Big fat F.
(Ed.note: sends flowers to Timea & Martina... maybe the Swiss Miss will remember you from your Wimbledon encounter. :) - tds)

WHAT I SAID THEN:Murray makes no slam finals and only two semi-finals
WHAT I SAY NOW: Two big finals, two in a row. Letting my Murray dislike cloud my judgement.

WHAT I SAID THEN:Wawrinka wins another slam
WHAT I SAY NOW: Give me a high five and an A-plus please, Todd.
(Ed.note: Done. As for the high five, will...


THIS
do for now? - tds)

WHAT I SAID THEN:They move the WTF somewhere totally unexpected, perhaps in Asia
WHAT I SAY NOW: Wait for it...


Galileo

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