U.S. Open Predictions: Mulling Over the Last Slam

Hey, all. Galileo here.

No coverage this week of Winston-Salem, except to point out Carreno-Busta played exceptionally well in winning it, especially in his defeat of Bautista-Agut in the final. An excellent result for Millman, too, but Gasquet still has work to do.

No mixed draw, but we have the men’s and women’s doubles. For the men, Herbert/Mahut will see it through against fourth seeded Murray/Soares. The Bryans will have one last run, supported by the home crowd, and defeat Dodig/Melo before losing in the finals. In the ladies doubles, Mladenovic/Garcia will lose in the semi to Hingis/Vandeweghe. And in the other semi, we will see Mattek-Sands/Safarova oust the Chans before the world number one Hingis takes it out for another slam title.

Mladenovic avoided a seed and, in fact, got Hibino in the first round. Then she will face A-Pavs, which is manageable. Really, this is quite a decent draw for our Kiki. Can she take advantage of it? Actually let’s use her in the suicide picks.

*Suicide Picks*
MS 1st Rd: Del Potro d. Schwartzman
==
WS 1st Rd: Mladenovic d. Hibino


Now, finally on to the singles....

=DJOKOVIC QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. NOVAK DJOKOVIC SRB
...Well, here we go again. Djokovic is the top seed in any section in the world right now, particularly this one. But a few suspect losses have dogged him lately. Can he put those right in his second best slam? In the loss to Del Potro he looked out of ideas and out of sync like Serena did. He was looking for a draw which he could ease himself into. But, alas, he did not get the luck. He opens with Janowicz and then Vesely before running into Klizan, most likely. It is a horror draw for the world number one. It’s just an awkward start, against players with genuine weapons - Klizan’s forehand, Janowicz’s dropper and the serve of Vesely. Nole should be fine to come through those and he has always dominated Gasquet, his most likely fourth round opponent.
2. MARIN CILIC CRO
...If ever there was a chance for a repeat (one year removed) this is it. With Sock and Tsonga neither here nor there, Djokovic looking mortal and the Croat’s serve working, this is it. He has confidence and the weaponry. He knows he can do it. Silva, Stakhovsky, Sock or Fritz and then Tsonga. No murderer's row for the 7th seed. If he can win another U.S. Open title or even make a decent run here again then we will have to re-evaluate him. Of course, the key phrase for Cilic is ‘avoiding the upset’. If he collapses here we could have a totally random quarterfinalist.
3. J-W. TSONGA FRA
...Who knows with the Frenchie? He could easily roll to the semi-final or lose to unheralded Andreozzi in the first round. His fitness, form and desire have all looked shaky this year, but he does have several things going in his favour - he is Tsonga and can produce at any moment. He has an easy draw. Duckworth, Anderson and Cilic following the first round is not a difficult path. Tsonga on form can do it…
DARK HORSE: RICHARD GASQUET
...Should Djokovic choke, Gasquet is ready to step in, dismiss Klizan or Vesely and then roll to the semi-final. If not for injury he would have had a smashing year, but now he is relegated to dark horse position. How much have the injuries taken out of him? Despite the loss to Millman, the quarter-final run in Winston-Salem is a pretty decent result. Can he pull off a miracle?
WILD CARD: MARTIN KLIZAN
...That serve is enormous and can punch holes in courts, bring down empires and make kings question their heirs. He combines it with a vicious forehand and brute strength on everything. Having seen him live, in a Wimbledon mixed, this BACKSPINNER can attest to his strengths. If he beats Djokovic he can go all the way to the final, though his big breakthrough will not be for a while.
EARLY EXIT: JOHN ISNER
...It’s always something, even on home soil. Even if he achieves his seeding it will still feel disappointing. Even worse, a loss to Tiafoe in the opening round wouldn’t be a total shock. Isner is inconsistent and has rarely performed well here. Now with even a slightly broken Gasquet lurking he could be in big trouble.
MATCH NOT TO MISS: DJOKOVIC VS. JANOWICZ
...That serve, fiery temper and dropshot go against the icy cool of Novak. With the winner taking it all, how will Jerzy be under pressure?
=In the End...=
DJOKOVIC D. GASQUET
CILIC D. TSONGA
--
DJOKOVIC D. CILIC

=NADAL QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. MILOS RAONIC CAN
...By now you are aware this BACKSPINNER likes a good risky prediction. But this feels safe. How the Canadian, and North America’s clear number one, has never been beyond the fourth here feels mindboggling. He has the serve, the forehand and a great previous grand slam result behind him. So this should be a cinch. Nadal is nowhere and, hey, how about you try and predict Monfils. So solid, dependable, robotic [in a good way], Raonic takes the favourite here. Opening with Brown and Harrison makes it trickier, but he should be far too solid for either of them. Paire or Baghdatis awaits next, probably the Cypriot, and that could be a lengthy one. But the big one is the Canadian versus the Frenchman. And the winner of that goes to the semi-final. This section really comes down to those two, though Cuevas and Almagro could both spoil a little. And he should blow away a broken Nadal at the end of his career.
2. GAEL MONFILS FRA
...He has had a quite exceptional year, with great performances in Monte Carlo, and at the slams. He has stepped up and deserves to finish the year in the top ten already without even looking at the last of the year’s events. But he still has question marks over his consistency and his mental toughness. His abysmal record in finals is still a black mark on his otherwise good record. But can the clown have the last laugh here? Muller, a journeyman of some description, Cuevas and Raonic is his path. And, honestly, who knows which player will come out of Rafa’s quarter. So should Monfils be able to cause an upset, or if Raonic crumbles, La Monf! will step in.
3. RAFAEL NADAL ESP
...Here simply for old time’s sakes and by default, Rafa will do nothing. And we should not be surprised. The one thing saving Nadal’s Spanish bacon is his draw. It’s not exactly challenging. Istomin and Seppi lurk, but neither should be able to handle Rafa. Benneteau or Bellucci might feasibly do it, as might Ramos-Vinolos. But the real danger is lurking in the fourth round - Bautista Agut has found form. And even if Rafa wins that, Raonic or Monfils will have too much. No semi-final for Rafa.
DARK HORSE: ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT
...There will be no trumpets, fanfare or media coverage for the pint-sized Spaniard. When he defeats Garcia-Lopez in four sets nobody will care, nobody will notice. When he takes out Baker in three convincing sets and dismisses Pouille, perhaps then people will sit up and take notice. But it is unlikely. And then he will beat Rafael Nadal and the world shall go mad. But you and I will know.
WILD CARD: BENOIT PAIRE
...If he makes it past Lajovic that will be impressive enough, never mind the rest. But then he must face Baghdatis. The catch here is if he wins those matches and comes into the match against Raonic with form and confidence, he could up-end the 5th seed here. But don’t count on it.
EARLY EXIT: RAFAEL NADAL
...the 14-time slam champion has won this event twice. Yes, twice. But the legend is being brought back to earth along with his old mate Roger. So while he has a workable draw, the form isn’t there and, arguably, perhaps some of his desire has deserted him. If he is going to win one more slam it will not be here, but in Paris.
MATCH NOT TO MISS: BROWN VS. RAONIC
...Total clash of styles here. Steady power against unpredictable slicing and dicing. Of course, Brown is capable of power himself, but this match will be all about how Raonic reacts to the challenge of the German.
=In the End...=
RAONIC D. MONFILS
BAUTISTA AGUT D. NADAL
--
RAONIC D. BAUTISTA AGUT

=WAWRINKA QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. STAN WAWRINKA SUI
...A two-time slam champion and world number three in a weaker section of the draw has to take the mantle of favourite. Every time. Verdasco is dangerous first up, but Wawrinka will be up to the challenge, particularly across five sets. Kudla and Zverev are dangerous, and lurking. In fact, if they meet, Wawrinka versus Zverev would be a fantastic match. The backhand to backhand, in particular, would be excellent. But still Wawrinka has to be the pick. And then an Aussie, Tomic or Kyrgios, and neither will be a walkover. But Kyrgios really could beat the Swiss. He has the weapons, the game and the brashness. He has found form this summer and is headed for the top ten. But Tomic could certainly wind up Wawrinka and drag him into a long match.
2. DOMINIC THIEM AUT
...With Ferrer pretty much finished and winding down, Thiem has a clear shot at the quarterfinals. But can he finally beat one of the big guys on a big stage? If Wawrinka struggles through and looks sluggish, he is there for the taking. But Wawrinka gets better and better as tournaments go on. Thiem will have no problem with Millman, Berankis or even Querrey. Querrey could have a decent go, but Thiem will honestly have a bit too much. The kick serve out to the backhand of the American is a big difference maker. Can Thiem back up an excellent French performance with one here? He has made inroads here before and has the form.
3. NICK KYRGIOS AUS
...Wild, untameable and all over the place. And that’s just his hair. He’ll blow past Bedene, Mayer and then run into Tomic. He should win that; he has more weapons. But then the question is can he beat Wawrinka? With all that bad blood between them and a lot at stake, who will wilt in the oppressive New York heat? Kyrgios has to serve well during the tournament. That’s one of his most effective weapons.
DARK HORSE: ALEX ZVEREV
...With the rapid rise in rankings, finals under his belt and a backhand you’ll want to watch again and again, this guy is the guy to put all your chips on the table for. Affordable still, the German could follow in Kerber’s footsteps and give us another German number one. Here in New York he should win two matches and it looks as if he will be seeded at the next few slams, too. Greatness lies in his path, but not yet.
WILD CARD: BERNARD TOMIC
...He should get to the third round fairly easily. Dzumhur and Dodig or Marchenko will not trouble the Aussie. But then you have to wonder how far he really can go from there. He could beat Kyrgios and Wawrinka or bomb out to his compatriot pathetically and get lambasted again. We shall soon see.
EARLY EXIT: DAVID FERRER
...This one needs no explanation. Dolgopolov or Fognini could do it. But watch out for Del Potro. He could make a very deep run here.
MATCH NOT TO MISS: WAWRINKA VS. VERDASCO
...Looking forward to the crosscourt battle here. Key for Ferver is to send that forehand up the line enough to disrupt Wawrinka. If he can get that forehand working, it could be trouble for the Swiss star. Expect Vavsy to win in four.
=In the End...=
THIEM D. DEL POTRO
WAWRINKA D. KYRGIOS
--
WAWRINKA D. THIEM

=MURRAY QUARTER=
*POWER RANKINGS*
1. ANDY MURRAY GBR
...Janowicz, Verdasco, Rosol and Istomin. None of the top four got a break when it came to the draw, honestly. Even Istomin for Nadal is going to be harder than it looks on paper. This is no gimme, not at all. Murray is fresh off another Gold, has Lendl back and is probably the best player in the world right now. This is his title to lose and this BACKSPINNER thinks that is what will happen. Monaco or Granollers next, then a totally random third rounder. Could be Stepanek. Could be Simon. Murray has a beautiful draw through to the quarter-finals. Even Dimitrov or Lopez in the fourth are unlikely to do much to the Scot. So for him it is about control and about keeping it to within four sets. Letting Rosol or even Monaco take a set isn’t great, but they are tricky players. He will also have to put opponents to the sword, to send a message. Murray has a title to win. Now let’s see him do it.
2. KEI NISHIKORI JPN
...An easy draw combined with a good Olympics, a very good Olympics, should see Kei through here. That quarterfinal with Andy Murray could be career-defining. Win that and he could make the final again. Becker, a qualifier and then probably Kohlschreiber await him. If he is on form and feeling it he should see off Goffin fairly easily in the fourth round. While Goffin has very effective ways of hanging in there, that is a match he should win and win well. And if he can take out Murray he could be in the final. The wheels have got to come off the Scot eventually. Will that be here?
3. DAVID GOFFIN BEL
...See above, really. If Nishikori falters or the Belgian beats him he has a quarterfinal with Murray locked up. Donaldson, Troicki and Karlovic are his first three most likely matches. He will win them all, make another slam fourth round and then run out of power against Nishikori or Murray. That’s his biggest problem. He can be under-powered at times.
DARK HORSE: GRIGOR DIMITROV
...This one is pretty straightforward. Cervantes, Chardy and Lopez sit in his way. Why can’t he cruise to the fourth round? If the Dimi who has been consistently showing up and been playing a very high level lately makes an appearance we have ourselves a dangerous entity on our hands. He should beat Lopez, but he has shown no signs he can beat Murray when it matters, lately. The big guys have been too much for him.
WILD CARD: FELICIANO LOPEZ
...This one needs no explanation. With that serve and forehand he will always have a shot at messing up a draw. And despite the appearance of Coric, he should be good enough to set up an eye-opening Dimitrov/Lopez clash.
EARLY EXIT: GILLES SIMON
...He’s been abysmal the whole year, but a soft draw here might have saved him. Instead he got Stepanek. Unlucky.
MATCH NOT TO MISS: LOPEZ VS. CORIC
...That big serve swinging into a vicious backhand is one reason to tune in. Another is the slice duels and the old versus young story.
=In the End...=
NISHIKORI D. GOFFIN
MURRAY D. DIMITROV
--
MURRAY D. NISHIKORI

=SEMIFINALS=
#1 DJOKOVIC D. #5 RAONIC
#2 MURRAY D. #3 WAWRINKA

=FINAL=
#1 DJOKOVIC d. #2 MURRAY

...And these late tournament picks write themselves. Like at Wimbledon, against Murray, Raonic will find his weapons blunted out. Djokovic will strangle him. And there’s no reason behind it, but Wawrinka doesn’t feel as safe a bet as Murray. And then it’s Djokovic/Murray in a major final. Yawnfest, and Djokovic victory.


*WOMEN*
=ROUND OF 16 PREDICTIONS=
#1 Williams d. #14 Stosur
#5 Halep d. #11 Suarez-Navarro
#4 Radwanska d. #15 Bacsinszky
#6 Williams d. #10 Pliskova
#9 Kuznetsova d. #8 Keys
#3 Muguruza d. #13 Konta
#12 Cibulkova d. Lisicki
#2 Kerber d. #14 Ka. Pliskova

...Williams has Makarova, King and Ivanovic in her way. That’s not easy, particularly in her form. Then she has to deal with Stosur, who does have a manageable draw, Kasatkina aside. The former U.S. Open champion looks good and has had a solid year, but Williams has to be the pick to safely make her way through to the quarters. That match could be a belter. Beck, Vesnina and Babos are all playing spoiler here. Halep has to play Flipkens and then the winner of Safarova versus Gavrilova. We could have a surprise quarterfinalist here, but this BACKSPINNER backs the 5th seed. Suarez-Navarro has been given a gift here and a fourth round run would be a good one for her. Watch out for Jankovic, though.

Laura Robson has won eight matches in a row and could make it nine. If she comes at Radwanska on a roll with confidence it could be an upset. She also has to deal with either Bouchard or Garcia. But, for once, I’ll place my trust in the fourth seed. Bertens will do fine, but Timea has the history here and the game to come through. Right now there is no challenger to Venus in this quarter. With Mladenovic playing spoiler, the big match here is Pavlyuchenkova taking on Pliskova. But Venus knows this could be her last legitimate U.S. Open shot. The key will be the Venus serve. If that holds up, she should be fine.

Now for the crazy. Schiavone and Kuznetsova play for the right to play the winner of Townsend and Wozniacki. But I think Sveta comes through that somehow, sees off Strycova and comes into the match against Keys with momentum. Vandeweghe lurks here, as does Brengle, but every slam needs a crazy pick. And Sveta has my vote. What a loaded section this is with two top tenners and three top twenty players. It will be carnage. Konta has to deal with Mattek-Sands and Pironkova. She also had Petkovic and Bencic nearby. But how many of them are any real threat? None.
Pretty much by default, Konta will ease through. Muguruza has Puig in her section, along with players like Bondarenko and Sevastova. Not exactly terrifying. Really, Muguruza could cruise to the quarters and not drop a set. Bencic is the wild card here, but she hasn’t done anything.

Cibulkova has an easy draw despite the presence of Van Uytvanck and Begu. Even Tsurenko barely qualifies as a threat. She is in fine form and will make a big run here because Vinci is playing poorly right now. The Italian is nowhere making this the Slovak’s section to lose. Lisicki is the best of a bad bunch, but McHale has a great opportunity.

Kvitova is totally unreliable, but will it be Svitolina or a surprise who makes a run here? Only Davis has any shot of stopping the Ukrainian, but this is a beauty of a draw for Elina. And with Errani being her usual abysmal self, Kerber will roll to the quarters practically unopposed. Rogers and Cornet threaten, but the second seed is far too good. If she can win five matches she likely seals the top ranking.

=QUARTERFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#1 Williams d. #5 Halep
#6 Williams d. #4 Radwanska
#3 Muguruza d. #9 Kuznetsova
#2 Kerber d. #12 Cibulkova

...Serena has a 7-1 head to head record against the Romanian and is better than her at hitting every shot. She doesn’t move as well and on the backhand Simona can live with her, but this matchup is horrible for the Romanian. She lacks Azarenka’s screw-you attitude and Stosur’s physicality. Why not back to back semi-finals? Venus has won three on the bounce and leads 8-4, plus she has the form and confidence. She’ll want to move on from her disappointing Olympic campaign [the mixed aside] and do well here. No backing Kuznetsova here, as the power of the Spaniard is telling on the Russian veteran. Is fitness an issue for Sveta? And Kerber should be good enough to see off Cibulkova, she has really turned up in the big events and looked infallible. Her forehand and wall-like abilities will frustrate the Slovak.

=SEMIFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#1 Williams d. #6 Williams
#2 Kerber d. #3 Muguruza

...Venus runs out of gas here. Serena will put her to the sword, but sometimes when sisters play funny results happen. But while Serena will lose the number one ranking, she will make another final here. Of course, she has a history of meltdowns in New York. Could that affect her? Muguruza has not the history in New York Kerber does. The German is in top form this year and has won the most matches of anyone. She will make grand slam final number two.

=FINAL PREDICTION=
#1 Serena d. #2 Kerber

...Yep, no pick against Serena here. Should be a response to a poor Olympic campaign. And the motivation to overtake Graf is still there. She keeps obliterating those records one by one. Though the Golden Grand Slam will be forever out of her reach now.


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