Wk.19- Murray Finds Love in the Eternal City

Hey, all. Galileo here.

Veni vidi vici.

The official selfie of the #ibi16 #ATP Champion! Happy birthday too! Let's celebrate @andy_murray with a RT! ???? pic.twitter.com/rrgdtl1Wgv

— Internazionali Bnl (@InteBNLdItalia) May 15, 2016

Folks you are looking at the best player in the world. Murray has proven it by dominating on clay the last two weeks. Inches from reaching the only grand slam final he has yet to reach last year, he comes into it on incredible form. He has made strides in Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome. He is possibly the favourite in Paris, though of course he won’t win it. He benefited from a cakewalk in Rome while Djokovic had a murderers row to contend with.

The forehand and serve are firing right now, and Murray looks the real deal on the clay. Of course, the French Open throws up funny results and there are a lot of mines in the draw. But Murray is the slight favourite right now and the second seed. The big question is ‘can Murray beat Nadal in five?’ Murray may have to beat Nadal, Federer and Djokovic back to back to back. Djokovic last year couldn’t beat Nadal, Murray and Wawrinka under similar circumstances.

What if the Scot gets Dimitrov, Fognini, Kyrgios and Monfils as his first four opponents? This French Open feels like Murray’s chance. If the Scot doesn’t win this year then when will he? How will Wawrinka go defending his title? How injured is Federer? Speaking of big chances, Djokovic does not have time on side. He needs to win the French and quickly. The Serb turns 29 this month. He probably has two legitimate shots left at winning the French. Every Roland Garros following 2017 his chances grow ever slimmer.

And in the doubles, how serious is Herbert’s injury? Is it just precaution? Federer has already said his back may force him out. He has to juggle Wimbledon and the Olympics. If both Federer and the French pair withdrew Roland Garros would be losing two big draw-cards.

=RANKINGS WATCH=
Top 32 - Fognini falls three to 34. He could be a very dangerous floater. Chardy and Delbonis stay at 32 and 33, respectively. Pouille is up 21 places to 31 with the semi-final showing.
Top 10 – Ferrer falls three places to 12, which sees Gasquet rise two places to ten. Raonic is just sixty points up on number 9 Gasquet while the Frenchie leads Cilic by just ten. The Wimbledon seedings will be fascinating.
Top 8 – No change. Kei is out on his own and is trailed by Tsonga and Berdych.
Top 4 – Rafa is less than 500 points behind Wawrinka, but will be seeded 5th for Roland Garros. Murray was world number three last week but is now 1400 points above Federer and sits pretty at number two.

But what else happened in the Italian capital?


*WEEK 19 CHAMPIONS*
ROME, ITALY
S: Andy Murray def. Novak Djokovic 6-3/6-3
D: Bryan/Bryan d. Pospisil/Sock


PLAYER OF THE WEEK: ANDY MURRAY
...A special week for Murray in the eternal city. How he will defend all these points next year is anybody’s guess, but right now he is setting the tour on fire. The Scot has looked poised all week. He even beat Djokovic, though the 10-23 record is abysmal and familiar. Federer used to have that record against Nadal. The Scot will have to prove he can beat Djokovic consistently to show he can contend in these big matches. Do not be surprised if Djokovic uses this loss as fuel in their next match. Make no mistake - Murray had an absolute cakewalk of a draw as he so often does. He opened with qualifier Kukushkin and won in straight sets. Next he blew away Chardy 0 and 4. He faced his first seed in the quarter - number 12 Goffin. He won that 6-1, 7-5. Then he faced lucky loser Pouille in the semi and won easily, of course. He went into the final having faced just one seed and then defeated Djokovic, who had had an insane run to the final. So Murray got lucky here. If he does get a hard draw at the French will he be able to handle it?
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RISER: KEI NISHIKORI
...No world number one who gets bageled deserves a positive review come the end of the week. Like Clinton, like Murray in Melbourne and like the Cavaliers, Nishikori will never quite make it. He gets so close against the big guys and yet he never quite gets over the hump. Against the Djoker he had him right where he wanted him. Djokovic had a cut on his ankle, though Novak has been known to play the hypochondriac before. Kei was hitting all the right shots and making him move. Heck, he was even defending solidly. But when Novak needed a point he got it. And so Kei’s wait goes on. But at least he has had a solid clay swing. He is fourth in the race and is a dark horse for the French. Solid wins over Troicki and Gasquet, only losing a set in those two combined, were followed by a straightforward quarterfinal victory over Thiem. The Austrian played him close but the Asian number one had too much. Kei is demonstrating an ability to put the smaller guys away. It’s a vital ability to have, especially when going deep in slams. Getting bogged down by lesser ranked players can cost the bigger seeds later on. You can’t win a slam in the first three rounds, but you can certainly lose it. Kei now goes on to prepare for the French.
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FRESH FACE: LUCAS POUILLE
...It’s been coming. He may only have a single win at slam level, but he did make the fourth round in Miami. He also made a clay final last month. Rome was his last shot to get a seeding at his best, and home, slam. Seeded top in qualies, he must have thought it was all over when Kukushkin beat him 7-5, 6-2. But no. He replaced 7th seed Tsonga and beat Gulbis 7-5 in the third. This BACKSPINNER hates the term ‘lucky loser.’ But it is usually accurate. Those who lose in qualies often either crumble or improve dramatically. And it was the case here. Pouille followed up his first big victory with another; he demolished Ferru 6-4, 6-1. He has beaten Ferrer already this year though it was on a different surface. When Monaco withdrew he was given a place in the semi-final but he also achieved a career high ranking of 31. Let’s ignore the fact he lost to Murray in 59 minutes and focus instead on just how good a week he has had. With that new ranking, if he matches the seed and wins two slam matches in the next three slams, he will have personal bests at every slam. It also means the French now have seven seeds at Roland Garros. One in four seeded players hail from the home nation. Somehow I still don’t think the winner will be French.
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VETERAN: JUAN MONACO
...At the age of 32 and with several surgeries under his belt, Pico comes back into the top hundred. He rose 27 places to land at 87 in the world. If he were to make three third round runs at the slams and win a 250, plus make a run or two at some of the bigger events, he could crack the top 50 easily. He is having a very steady rise. He came in with a protected ranking and saw off Johnson in straight sets. He also beat Anderson in three long sets, besting another traveler on the road to recovery. Then he had the win of his second career. He edged Wawrinka 6-7[5], 6-3, 6-4. The Argentine now has form with him going into his best major. How much of an impact can he have?
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SURPRISE: VACEK POSPISIL/JACK SOCK
...After their darling run to the Wimbledon title a few years ago, we all thought they were the chosen ones. In reality they have chosen a darker route. A perennial top ten seed they are utterly inconsistent. But this clay season most teams have been completely unreliable. ATP doubles is a mess with no clear leader except the French pair. But Herbert was injured. The second seeds collapsed, too. The eighth seeds beat Huey/Mirnyi 7-6[6], 6-4. After that they bested tricky customers Cuevas/Granollers 6-4, 7-6[4]. More breakers were in their future as they edged 6th seeds Bopanna/Mergea 7-6[4], 7-6[2]. They dominated the Bryans early but eventually lost 2-6, 6-3, 10-7. Still it was a good week and they could make a decent fist of it at Roland Garros.
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DOWN: BERNARD TOMIC
...Tomic said last week “would you care about match point if you were 23 and worth ten million?” when he lost the match against Fognini. This was after he played the last point holding his racket the wrong way. Now he has retired after just three games against Paire. Kyrgios has a very good off-court record. The same cannot be said about Tomic. He is petulant and childish and is surely headed for a disastrous French Open campaign. There are some serious mental issues in the young Aussies psyche. He needs to sort himself out and quickly.
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UPSET: JEREMY CHARDY
...The Frenchy upset Agut in straight sets 7-6[6], 6-4. Agut has suddenly started to fall off a little and become a little more susceptible to the upset than he usually is. Normally his seeding is rock solid and he will not falter before the round he is slated to lose in. But recently, on clay of all surfaces, cracks have started to appear. Still, this was quite an upset from Chardy who has done little this year.
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Notes from the week...
1 - Serena obliterated the field. Her demolition of Kuznetsova was astonishing. The Russian was alright but still only got two games. Look out for a rematch in Paris. If it happens the upset is still on.
2 – Will Federer play in Paris?
3 – What will happen to former semi-finalists Gulbis and Monfils? They are trending in different directions right now and this is the Frenchies' best slam.
4 – Can Kyrgios make a run in the French capital?
5 – The ladies world number one ranking is up for grabs. Serena won her 70th title in Rome but could still lose the ranking to Radwanska [Ha!] or Kerber.
6 – All of our top seeds are set. Hingis/Mirza could make it four in a row at the slams.



1. Rome SF - Djokovic d. Nishikori 2-6, 6-4, 7-6[1]
...We had Djokovic’s first deciding breaker in some two years. Nishikori, aided and abetted by a cut on Novak’s ankle, saved match points down 4-5 in the third and used his drop shot well to give the top seed some serious problems. Once more, sadly, we saw the reason Nishikori will never rise to world number one. He cannot close out when he needs to.
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2. Madrid R3 - Goffin d. Berdych 6-0, 6-0
...Can we just sit and reflect on the giant anomaly that is that scoreline. Goffin had never beaten the Czech before, but he did so in some style in Rome. The Czech even received boos.

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3. Madrid R3 - Nadal d. Kyrgios 6-7[3], 6-2, 6-4
...Very Nadal and Djokovic focused I’m afraid. Kyrgios played a controlled, tactical match but it was not enough against a bullish Rafa Nadal. Rafa had been playing points like this all tournament

"
And he was more aggressive against Nick, too. It was a high quality exchange that had the crowed oohing appreciatively. Kyrgios is destined for great things.
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4. Rome Final - Murray d. Djokovic 6-3, 6-3
...Not the best match. Rather flat in fact. Djokovic hit over 15 aces, but Murray became the first British man since 1931 to win in Rome. He did so on his 29th birthday. He has now two of the last 14 contests between these two. Hmm.
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*GENEVA*
=SF=
Wawrinka [1] d. [4] Isner
Delbonis [6] d. [2] Ferrer
=FINAL=
Wawrinka [1] d. Delbonis [6]

...We’ll go with the seeds and try not to think about the inevitable withdrawals. Lots of players here with a good chance to find some form but Wawrinka is at home. And he needs to get some wins the most of all. Cilic is here so expect him to do terribly yet still rise in the rankings….

*NICE*
=SF=
Thiem [1] d. Pella
Zverev [8] d. [3] Anderson
=FINAL=
Thiem [1] d. Zverev [8]

...Anything can and does happen at these events. Often a springboard for out of form players or younger rising stars, they don’t have so many sharks, which gives other fish a chance to feed. This is just a warm-up for the French Open where my picks really will go crazy.

Mladenovic fell to 29 in singles and 11 in doubles. She got blown out by Ostapenko in the singles and exited in the quarters partnering Garcia. Her compatriot rose in the doubles rankings. They struggled through two long three setters before losing in two to Hlavackova/Hradecka. The Frenchies will be seeded fifth in their home slam and a lot is rightfully expected of them.

Kiki is defending finalist points in Strasbourg but is seeded fourth. She has already won her first match. What with withdrawals and upsets her quarter has collapsed and she has a clear run. Can she take it? She and Garcia are not playing the doubles in Strasbourg, though they are both there.


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